Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

The roadmap I use to guide my paid service recommendations, the two liquidity clocks behind it, and why it’s better to be early rather than agree with everyone else.

How Australia’s mortgage fraud scandal could blow up the banking system

Nick Hubble

Hidden beneath Australia’s housing bubble is a scandal so shocking it cannot be exposed. But the journalists and financial regulators are getting ever closer to the dangerous truth.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to jawbone yields down and that play lasted about a day. Meanwhile, gold and Bitcoin had other ideas. Here’s why I think the debasement trade is back, and where it leads next.

China’s Demand for Coal Surges

China’s new coal power station installations just reached an 18-year high. They’re also the number one builder of solar panels. And wind turbines. As the rest of the world craves it, China holds it: ENERGY

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Commodities

How Australia’s mortgage fraud scandal could blow up the banking system

Nick Hubble

Hidden beneath Australia’s housing bubble is a scandal so shocking it cannot be exposed. But the journalists and financial regulators are getting ever closer to the dangerous truth.

China’s Demand for Coal Surges

Different Demand Drivers, Yet Commodities Rise in Packs

The entire commodities complex is trending higher, but the real reason has nothing to do with the headlines you’re reading.

The global order at the crossroads

Brian Chu

The US-Iran conflict is now almost six months old. What began with military strikes has developed into a combination of diplomacy and economic warfare. The world is watching the global order redefine itself as countries realign and reposition themselves.

Oil and Gold: Why Both Could Rise for the Remainder of 2026

Oil and Gold have been the opposing asset classes this year, while one’s up, the other is down. But the remainder of 2026 could give rise to something much different.

Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

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Technology

Going Winchester

The new era of drone warfare is playing havoc with the West’s ability to defend itself. Now we’re running out of ammo.

Software’s Second Coming

In February, the market decided AI had made software obsolete and sold the sector down the river. Six months later, short sellers are cowering and reporting season is separating the genuinely disrupted from the merely unloved.

No War, No Peace

Trump has swapped bombs for a blockade. But the squeeze is again putting pressure on diesel, which bleeds through to Aussie miners’ bottom lines.

The Line Break

Key trendlines are breaking in some unloved sectors on the ASX. While the signals are all early, it’s worth updating your watchlists.

The Silicon Curtain

AI could be one of the factors that ultimately split the world into two rival blocs. Where does that leave us?

Small Caps

The roadmap under the hood

The roadmap I use to guide my paid service recommendations, the two liquidity clocks behind it, and why it’s better to be early rather than agree with everyone else.

The debasement trade is back!

Micro-caps: Look where others don’t!

The small end of the ASX has gone nowhere for ten months. Something shifted in the last fortnight, and most investors have not noticed it yet.

The contrarian case for tiny ASX stocks

Australia’s micro-cap market looks unloved amid recession chatter, AI mania and bond-market panic — exactly the kind of neglected territory contrarian investors should be watching.

Big Tech’s Bond Problem

The US just sold 30 year bonds at the highest rate since 2001. If Big Tech stalls under that pressure, gold and oversold tech could benefit from the rotation.

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Market Analysis

Two Software Recovery Plays

The battle between Washington and the bond market is heating up and the economic fallout from the war in Iran is beginning to surface. Murray looks at two US stocks that look ready to rumble.

ASX Wobbles as Tech and Uranium Come Alive

The ASX 200 took a step backwards this week as results season put the brakes on its recent rally. Weakness in the banks has raised the risk, potentially opening the door to a quick 4% correction.

Gold Reignites: Here’s Our Favourites

After an eight-month correction, a growing number of gold stocks are flashing potential buy signals at the same time. Murray looks at why that could point to a tradeable bounce in gold.

The Wrong Bubble Pt.2

In part one, I argued the AI build-out looks more like 2008 than 2000. Here is why the hyperscalers keep spending anyway — and the moment that could unwind it.

I wasn’t expecting THIS chart…

US bond yields are creeping back into dangerous territory, AI pessimism may have reached a short-term extreme, and the metals story continues to impress.

Macro

Let Her Rip

Two years ago, Trump’s economic whisperer co-wrote a paper accusing party politics of running stimulus into an election. This week, Treasury reached for the exact tool he described. The same paper warns what’s next.

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump

The pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of a key meeting with Xi next week. What could this mean for our markets.

What Does China Know That We Don’t?

China’s oil hoarding may be a signal for a longer game than the West expects.

Australia’s Vibecession