Fat Tail Daily | Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve

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Pick a Direction

Greg Canavan

Summertime in the north means sleepy markets, but that doesn’t mean risk isn’t present. After an ambling year for the ASX, we look to be at a crossroads.

Higher taxes are a sign of desperation before the end

Nick Hubble

Governments around the world are raising taxes at the same time. But why? And what does it tell us about the future? There are three possibilities…

The Trillion-Dollar Bet

Charlie Ormond

Prediction markets have grown into a US$50 billion-a-month behemoth almost overnight. Some in Australia want a piece of the action.

Room for Growth: Today Oil Makes Up 3% of the S&P500. In 1980 it was 30%

James Cooper

Energy makes up just 3.2% of the S&P 500 today. At its 1980 peak, it commanded almost 30%. The gap between those two numbers is where the next great rotation begins.

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Higher taxes are a sign of desperation before the end

Nick Hubble

Governments around the world are raising taxes at the same time. But why? And what does it tell us about the future? There are three possibilities…

Room for Growth: Today Oil Makes Up 3% of the S&P500. In 1980 it was 30%

James Cooper

Energy makes up just 3.2% of the S&P 500 today. At its 1980 peak, it commanded almost 30%. The gap between those two numbers is where the next great rotation begins.

An Aussie Gas Boom That You Won’t Collect

James Cooper

If the government isn’t going to give you anything from your national resources, then invest in the companies that can

Modi’s Melbourne visit is set to unlock a uranium trade twelve years in the making. Australia holds a third of the world’s reserves, but the ASX has been a sleepy place for producers. Is that about to change?

Before you change your investment strategy to avoid higher taxes…

Brian Chu

Many are worried about the impending tax changes on capital gains and trust distributions. Investors are wondering if they should change their investment strategy. Looking at history, we’ve seen this happen before.

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Technology

Data-struction

Paul Dichiera

Are datacentres next on the chopping block? The demand is real and already signed. The danger sits in the balance sheet, heres what headlines miss.

Musk Looks Up. China Looks Down

Charlie Ormond

SpaceX wants a million AI satellites in orbit. China just switched on a wind-powered data centre under the sea. Both are chasing the same prize: cheap power and free cooling for the AI buildout.

Funding an AI Promise

Paul Dichiera

The biggest AI listings want you to fund a promise and wait a decade. The smart money is in the dull, profitable companies where the AI earns its keep

The Great AI Loss Leader

Charlie Ormond

The Hyperscalers are betting trillions that AI will restore their golden cashflow era. The economics underneath it are far weaker than the share prices suggest.

Era of the Mega-IPO

Charlie Ormond

With more massive IPOs expected from the AI trade I take a look at history to see what it has to say about our market in the mega-IPO era.

Small Caps

IPO Fever: America Builds Its Tallest Tower Yet

Lachlann Tierney

America stands accused of rigging the World Cup. Meanwhile the mega-IPOs keep coming, the Fed has gone quiet, and the skyscraper index hints at where this bull market sits.

Why the US market needs to go up (and what next)

Lachlann Tierney

Is the American financial empire crumbling? I’m not so sure this posse of unhinged savages knows how to lose. Regardless, have a think of what the next leg of the AI trade looks like.

Remember: It’s a market of stocks

Paul Dichiera

A bubble in US semiconductors doesn’t mean everything blows up. Greg Canavan explains why it’s a market of stocks, not a stock market, and where Aussie capital is moving.

It’s the chip machines, stupid!

Lachlann Tierney

A niche fight over Dutch chip machines reveals who really controls AI, war‑fighting tech and future prosperity — and why critical minerals investors can’t afford to ignore it.

Why a Boring Market Might Be Your Friend

Lachlann Tierney

Oil down, stocks up, ASX shuffles sideways. While Wall Street sprints off into the distance, our sleepy market might be the safer place to stand when the rally finally cracks.

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Market Analysis

Pick a Direction

Greg Canavan

Summertime in the north means sleepy markets, but that doesn’t mean risk isn’t present. After an ambling year for the ASX, we look to be at a crossroads.

The Trillion-Dollar Bet

Charlie Ormond

Prediction markets have grown into a US$50 billion-a-month behemoth almost overnight. Some in Australia want a piece of the action.

The Art of Doing Nothing

Charlie Ormond

The ceasefire is over, the ASX is going sideways and markets can’t pick a direction. History’s best investors say the smartest move right now might be no move at all.

Four Healthcare Recovery Plays

Murray Dawes

Murray explains why patience is often a trader’s greatest weapon, introduces his simple traffic light system for judging market conditions and also looks at the post tax-loss-selling rebound emerging in healthcare stocks.

The Empire Steps Back

Charlie Ormond

On the eve of America’s 250th birthday, Charlie considers what the latest signals from the administration mean for us.

Macro

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump

Charlie Ormond

The pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of a key meeting with Xi next week. What could this mean for our markets.

What Does China Know That We Don’t?

Charlie Ormond

China’s oil hoarding may be a signal for a longer game than the West expects.

Australia’s Vibecession

Charlie Ormond

The ASX is diverging from the optimism we’re seeing in US markets. What’s the driving force, and what can we do about it?

If You’re Confused, So Is Everyone Else

Charlie Ormond

The lack of a clear narrative for this market recovery suggests underlying confusion. So what can be done?

Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

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What people are saying about Fat Tail Daily

I enjoy reading articles from all editors. The way the guys present issues creates interest where there may not have been interest before . That is a huge accolade coming from someone like me. I genuinely appreciate the effort you all put in, and I have learnt a lot of valuable general knowledge as well also.

— K.M, QLD

I enjoy the researched, informative, and sometimes thought provoking articles from the editors. I’ve learnt how the world works with Jim, long term value investing with Greg, navigating volatile gold stocks with Brian, and technical analysis with Murray. I even hold some crypto Ryan. I am almost 60 and you can teach an old dog new tricks. Many thanks for all your efforts, all of the editors

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I find the information very informative. It’s refreshing to me as you guys do not follow the trends. Each trader has a different view of the world and their particular areas of expertise. I like that you talk about bitcoin & Gold, where most other financial advisers won’t.

— R.K. NSW

I look forward to Fat Tail Daily hitting my inbox. My favourite contributors are Greg Canavan, Callum Newman, James Cooper and Murray Dawes. I enjoy the blend of company, sector, whole market and technical analysis that in combination they provide. Fat Tail Daily provides a refreshing alternative to the usual mainstream financial media and also serves as a good backdrop to the individual services that Fat Tail provides.

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I value the research, advice and the analysis by the respective authors. You don’t have to agree but I also like the balance of being able to read differing points of view not just on a particular investment topic but also life and values.

— Alexander, WA

Quality writers and research – clear, concise recommendations.

— DJ Whiting, WA

Very well informed and current. Many of the ideas are thought provoking. What I also like is the diverse range of opinions and independent thinking.

LATEST VIDEO: Four Healthcare Recovery Plays

Most Read…

Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

What people are saying about Fat Tail Daily

— K.M, QLD

— Joe S, Wollongong

— Janet Roach, VIC

— R.K. NSW

— George S, UK

— Alexander, WA

— DJ Whiting, WA

— Brian, NSW

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LATEST VIDEO:
Four Healthcare Recovery Plays