Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

Australia’s budget is coming on Tuesday, 12 May, and it will likely make investors feel like George Costanza. Maybe investors will embrace pure nihilism and swing for the fences even more?

The Australian Economy’s Getting a Pay Rise, but it’s Still Depressed

The doom is real. But so are the commodity prices. And right now, the gap between them is where fortunes are made.

The Walls are Closing in on Trump

The pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of a key meeting with Xi next week. What could this mean for our markets.

Markets Brace for Tuesday Shock

Murray and Charlie look at whether fears surrounding next week’s budget and potential capital gains tax changes are beginning to trigger selling pressure across the market.

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The Australian Economy’s Getting a Pay Rise, but it’s Still Depressed

The doom is real. But so are the commodity prices. And right now, the gap between them is where fortunes are made.

The Quality Filter: How to Find Resource Stocks Built for Turbulent Markets

Rising commodity prices sound like good news — but they can mask serious cracks in the companies beneath them.

A system reset has begun, but not the way we thought

Brian Chu

The world continues to focus on an elusive negotiation between the US, Israel and Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, something else happened that changed the oil market for good…

Gold’s Line in the Sand Offers a Solid Long-Term Entry

Gold’s wildest year on record delivered panic, war, and a 20% crash — but the real story is just beginning.

After this Goose Hunting Season, Don’t Expect Any Golden Eggs

Nick Hubble

Prosperity is easily taken for granted. It’s even easier to lose. But rarely has it faced such an all-out assault on so many fronts.

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More Power to You

The latest White House declarations underscore the next major theme heading into 2030. And Australia has what they need.

The Thin Red Line

A US$2 billion deal for an AI agent was unwound by Beijing this week. The implications for global AI, capital flows and your portfolio are bigger than the price tag.

The Company Who Cried Wolf

AI company Anthropic has been on the rooftops shouting about the threats of its upcoming model. Insiders have widely panned the move as a marketing ploy. So where are the risks?

AI’s Next Bottleneck is Plumbing

Everyone’s watching chips and power. Almost no one is watching the optical shifts that insiders are scrambling to solve. That’s about to change.

An Era of ‘Cheap War’

Drones are reshaping warfare. And the economics of shooting them down don’t add up. Here’s one company that could change that.

Budget Watch: We’re all George Costanza now

Australia’s budget is coming on Tuesday, 12 May, and it will likely make investors feel like George Costanza. Maybe investors will embrace pure nihilism and swing for the fences even more?

Mining deals? You ain’t seen nothing yet!

Lion’s mining clock is lighting up again as global M&A surges, but this doesn’t look like another dumb top‑of‑cycle blow‑off. It looks like the real boom phase beginning.

Where to invest after RBA rate decision…not Australia

Rate hikes punish productive Aussies and big local projects, but soaring commodity prices point to ASX-listed plays offshore in nickel, copper, lithium and uranium instead.

Tax “reform”: They always want more

The Aussie government is proposing tax reform that is based on policy from nearly three years ago. But if the market trades down for a few months, that could throw up some great opportunities.

Winner of Iran War #4: Companies “doing nothing”

There are some unexpected winners on the ASX the could benefit from high oil prices. And part of that boils down to the fact they aren’t “doing anything” yet.

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Markets Brace for Tuesday Shock

Murray and Charlie look at whether fears surrounding next week’s budget and potential capital gains tax changes are beginning to trigger selling pressure across the market.

Big Tech Just Broke the Tape

US stocks remain bulletproof while the ASX lags. Murray and Charlie look at a software bounce-back trade and run the ruler over a bunch of viewer-suggested stocks.

Market Nerves Return This Week

Aussie stocks had a rough week, falling around 2% while US markets held firm. With uncertainty still hanging over Iran, investors are watching fuel, fertiliser and commodity supply risks closely.

The Pros Got Crushed… What That Means for You

Markets have just ripped higher, with the S&P 500 surging 15% in less than two weeks. But beneath the surface, things aren’t nearly as strong as they look.

Markets surged this week on news of a ceasefire in Iran. But a strict reading of the trading model suggests caution, with short-term risks still pointing to potential downside despite strong price action.

Macro

The Walls are Closing in on Trump

The pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of a key meeting with Xi next week. What could this mean for our markets.

What Does China Know That We Don’t?

China’s oil hoarding may be a signal for a longer game than the West expects.

Australia’s Vibecession

The ASX is diverging from the optimism we’re seeing in US markets. What’s the driving force, and what can we do about it?

If You’re Confused, So Is Everyone Else

The lack of a clear narrative for this market recovery suggests underlying confusion. So what can be done?

The Last Barrels