Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

Aussie stocks had a rough week, falling around 2% while US markets held firm. With uncertainty still hanging over Iran, investors are watching fuel, fertiliser and commodity supply risks closely.

The Seasonal Secret Behind Oil’s Boom-and-Bust Cycle

A recurring historical pattern suggests oil’s next big move could arrive by the end of 2026.

If You’re Confused, So Is Everyone Else

The lack of a clear narrative for this market recovery suggests underlying confusion. So what can be done?

Another obstacle to the Epstein client list is falling

Brian Chu

Progress in bringing justice on the Epstein saga has been slow. Yet, the latest takedown of a high-profile Democrat member might offer clues that the next steps of the process are underway.

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The Seasonal Secret Behind Oil’s Boom-and-Bust Cycle

A recurring historical pattern suggests oil’s next big move could arrive by the end of 2026.

Another obstacle to the Epstein client list is falling

Brian Chu

Progress in bringing justice on the Epstein saga has been slow. Yet, the latest takedown of a high-profile Democrat member might offer clues that the next steps of the process are underway.

We Made 110% on Oil. Here’s Why We Just Sold.

The Middle East is in chaos, yet oil markets are calming. Here’s the Saudi backup plan nobody’s talking about

Australia is a valley of the clueless: get your money out!

Nick Hubble

What you don’t know can hurt you. And the opportunities you miss can cost you. But how do you discover what you aren’t even aware of?

WA Fortress: A State that Can Feed, Fuel, and Finance Itself

Western Australia’s isolation was once a liability. Now, with cheap gas, world-class commodities, and food security, it could be its greatest asset

Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

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The Company Who Cried Wolf

AI company Anthropic has been on the rooftops shouting about the threats of its upcoming model. Insiders have widely panned the move as a marketing ploy. So where are the risks?

AI’s Next Bottleneck is Plumbing

Everyone’s watching chips and power. Almost no one is watching the optical shifts that insiders are scrambling to solve. That’s about to change.

An Era of ‘Cheap War’

Drones are reshaping warfare. And the economics of shooting them down don’t add up. Here’s one company that could change that.

Our Modern Interregnum (Pt. 4)

The final part of Charlie Ormond’s meditation on our modern era. Today explores three ways our current crisis could end, and a clear investible solution.

Our Modern Interregnum (Pt. 3)

Part 3 of Charlie Ormond’s meditation on our modern era. Today explores the hidden mechanism behind today’s supply shock.

Advanced Gamblenomics: A brief guide to why the ASX 200 sucks

The historical performance of the S&P500 vs the ASX 200 reveals a big opportunity for Aussie investors. And it starts with what Lachlann Tierney calls “gamblenomics”.

Iran War Winners #2 and #3: Copper and Nickel

A sulphur squeeze in the Gulf, Indonesia slashing nickel quotas and an AI data‑centre arms spell big things for nickel and copper prices.

Iran War Winner #1: Lithium

Battery Energy Storage Systems are the quiet winner from the Iran war, pulling forward a huge new wave of lithium demand just as EV demand re-accelerates and supply stalls.

Everything (might) be fine

The ASX has bounced, the war drones on, and private credit lurks. Lachlann runs the Rumsfeld matrix on markets. And it turns out, we might be just fine.

Silver, Juice and Power

Iran is taxing oil in yuan and crypto, but how many ounces of silver do I need to buy a pound of frozen OJ? What a weird commodity pair reveals about money, energy and power.

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Market Nerves Return This Week

Aussie stocks had a rough week, falling around 2% while US markets held firm. With uncertainty still hanging over Iran, investors are watching fuel, fertiliser and commodity supply risks closely.

The Pros Got Crushed… What That Means for You

Markets have just ripped higher, with the S&P 500 surging 15% in less than two weeks. But beneath the surface, things aren’t nearly as strong as they look.

Markets surged this week on news of a ceasefire in Iran. But a strict reading of the trading model suggests caution, with short-term risks still pointing to potential downside despite strong price action.

Trump Whiplash Sends Markets Spinning Again

In today’s Closing Bell, we analyse a wide range of viewer-requested stocks, from coal and fertilisers to lithium, rare earths, drones, and pharma.

Major Support Under Siege in US Markets

US markets are sitting on a knife-edge after another sharp sell-off. The risk is that we’re approaching the point where selling overwhelms buyers, and the correction accelerates.

Macro

If You’re Confused, So Is Everyone Else

The lack of a clear narrative for this market recovery suggests underlying confusion. So what can be done?

The Last Barrels

Australia’s fuel vulnerability just went from theoretical to very real overnight.

The Cockroaches are Multiplying

Six weeks ago, I asked whether private credit was the new subprime. Things are only looking worse since.

The Chokepoint Always Wins

Markets continue to price this as a temporary disruption. But the idea that Iran will simply hand Hormuz back for free looks naïve in the gaze of history.

Death of the Petrodollar