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Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve

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Fat Tail Daily – ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

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Bitcoin and Copper ready to run

Weekly videos with expert insights on investing, economics, and finance for Australian investors. Subscribe to our YouTube channel

Fired businessman, enemployed

The Canary is Coughing

Charlie Ormond

US employment data has long served as an early warning system for the global economy. When American workers start losing jobs, trouble tends to follow…For markets, for Australia, and eventually for your portfolio.

The Backdoor Entry: Why Majors Buy 10% Stakes Years Before 100% Takeovers

James Cooper

When mining majors take strategic stakes in juniors, it signals serious interest. Learn why these small bites precede billion-dollar takeover deals.

Copper’s Christmas Breakout and a New Stock Idea

Murray Dawes

Hopes for a Santa rally are building as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq just confirmed a weekly buy pivot, with odds of a US rate cut now close to 100%. In today’s Closing Bell, we look at how powerful these weekly trends can be.

The Problem with Exponentials

Charlie Ormond

The difference between AI that can reliably handle two-hour tasks and AI that can handle multi-week tasks isn’t just more capacity. It’s a fundamentally different economic reality.

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Commodities

Fear the AI boom and bust

Nick Hubble

100 years ago, the Austrian Business Cycle was developed. It perfectly explains today’s AI bubble. How it was inflated, how it’ll pop and what’s next…

Why Smart Money Could Shift to Buyouts in 2026

James Cooper

James Cooper believes rising commodity prices this year could spark mining M&A activity in 2026. This is a rare window of time into the speculative phase of the commodity cycle.

M&A Cycle Alert: Why Market Weakness Could Be Your Opportunity

James Cooper

James Cooper outlines the opportunity for junior mining stocks if commodity prices continue to rise in 2026. Much of it hangs on the miners’ need to source more reserves.

Commodity Cycle: Ticking Towards Acquisition Time

James Cooper

James Cooper details the last-minute bid from BHP to acquire Anglo. And what it reveals about the commodity cycle as we head into 2026.]

Trump’s Supreme Court saved him, but will his Fed?

Nick Hubble

Trump’s appointments to the Supreme Court have saved him from Democrat lawfare. But will the Federal Reserve save him from the bursting AI bubble?

Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

Please read our Terms & Conditions.

We will collect and handle your personal information in accordance with our Privacy Policy.

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Technology

Fired businessman, enemployed

The Canary is Coughing

Charlie Ormond

US employment data has long served as an early warning system for the global economy. When American workers start losing jobs, trouble tends to follow…For markets, for Australia, and eventually for your portfolio.

The Problem with Exponentials

Charlie Ormond

The difference between AI that can reliably handle two-hour tasks and AI that can handle multi-week tasks isn’t just more capacity. It’s a fundamentally different economic reality.

A Case for Optimism

Charlie Ormond

James’s makes a case for optimism in a market freaking out over tariffs, shutdowns, and AI bubble fears. He thinks three major developments are quietly pointing in the opposite direction to what you may think.

Markets Get Their Shot in the Arm

Charlie Ormond

We’ve become dependent on the Fed’s needle. Every wobble gets smoothed over with dovish speeches and rate cut hints. Another shot in the arm to send stocks higher.

A Modern Odyssey for Investors

Charlie Ormond

With Christopher Nolan’s film adaptation hitting screens next year, Homer’s wanderer is having a moment. But forget the Hollywood spectacle. The lessons from this Bronze Age CEO are surprisingly relevant for navigating 2026’s markets.

Small-Caps

Get ready! Mainstream investors are going for gold

Brian Chu

With gold setting records this year, precious metals assets, like mining stocks, are gaining attention. Even mainstream media is talking about them. But it’s not a flattering discussion. Here’s my take on the flaws in their case.

Macro

The Backdoor Entry: Why Majors Buy 10% Stakes Years Before 100% Takeovers

James Cooper

When mining majors take strategic stakes in juniors, it signals serious interest. Learn why these small bites precede billion-dollar takeover deals.

Crypto

Record Highs or a Monetary Mirage?

Ryan Dinse

If you don’t get this basic fact right, you’re reading everything else wrong.

Economy

The Quiet Opportunity in Australian Beef

Charlie Ormond

Australian lean beef has climbed to multi-year highs, while share prices remain muted. That sounds like an opportunity to me.

Market-Analysis

Copper’s Christmas Breakout and a New Stock Idea

Murray Dawes

Hopes for a Santa rally are building as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq just confirmed a weekly buy pivot, with odds of a US rate cut now close to 100%. In today’s Closing Bell, we look at how powerful these weekly trends can be.

ASX News Update

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank [ASX:BEN] Shares Dip Despite Profit Growth

Charlie Ormond

Bendigo’s shares slid today after a mixed earnings report that had some highs but also signs of trouble ahead for the economy.

Resources and Mining

Whitehaven Coal [ASX:WHC] Surges as Fire Disrupts Market

Charlie Ormond

A fire at Grosvenor coal mine has sent rival coal companies soaring, is now the time to invest?

Series

Copper’s Christmas Breakout and a New Stock Idea

Murray Dawes

Hopes for a Santa rally are building as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq just confirmed a weekly buy pivot, with odds of a US rate cut now close to 100%. In today’s Closing Bell, we look at how powerful these weekly trends can be.

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Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

Enter your email address in the box below and you’ll get Fat Tail Daily every day…absolutely free.

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  • I look foward to Fat Tail Daily hitting my inbox. My favourite contributors are Greg Canavan, Callum Newman, James Cooper and Murray Dawes. I enjoy the blend of company, sector, whole market and technical analysis that in combination they provide. Fat Tail Daily provides a refreshing alternative to the usual mainstream financial media and also serves as a good backdrop to the individual services that Fat Tail provides.

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Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.

Go beyond conventional investing strategies with unique ideas and actionable opportunities. Our expert editors deliver conviction-led insights to guide your financial journey.

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Email: support@fattail.com.au

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All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.

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