Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

Markets are buoyed by a softer US inflation print thanks to cheaper petrol. But with the Strait of Hormuz erupting again, that win may already be borrowed against the future.

Oil Hoarding: The #1 Risk to the Market from here

Chronic underinvestment. A genuine supply shock. A market that had written off the sector. That’s the 1970s setup, and it’s shaping up again today.

Pick a Direction

Greg Canavan

Summertime in the north means sleepy markets, but that doesn’t mean risk isn’t present. After an ambling year for the ASX, we look to be at a crossroads.

Higher taxes are a sign of desperation before the end

Nick Hubble

Governments around the world are raising taxes at the same time. But why? And what does it tell us about the future? There are three possibilities…

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Oil Hoarding: The #1 Risk to the Market from here

Chronic underinvestment. A genuine supply shock. A market that had written off the sector. That’s the 1970s setup, and it’s shaping up again today.

Higher taxes are a sign of desperation before the end

Nick Hubble

Governments around the world are raising taxes at the same time. But why? And what does it tell us about the future? There are three possibilities…

Room for Growth: Today Oil Makes Up 3% of the S&P500. In 1980 it was 30%

Energy makes up just 3.2% of the S&P 500 today. At its 1980 peak, it commanded almost 30%. The gap between those two numbers is where the next great rotation begins.

An Aussie Gas Boom That You Won’t Collect

If the government isn’t going to give you anything from your national resources, then invest in the companies that can

Modi’s Melbourne visit is set to unlock a uranium trade twelve years in the making. Australia holds a third of the world’s reserves, but the ASX has been a sleepy place for producers. Is that about to change?

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Technology

Data-struction

Paul Dichiera

Are datacentres next on the chopping block? The demand is real and already signed. The danger sits in the balance sheet, heres what headlines miss.

Musk Looks Up. China Looks Down

SpaceX wants a million AI satellites in orbit. China just switched on a wind-powered data centre under the sea. Both are chasing the same prize: cheap power and free cooling for the AI buildout.

Funding an AI Promise

Paul Dichiera

The biggest AI listings want you to fund a promise and wait a decade. The smart money is in the dull, profitable companies where the AI earns its keep

The Great AI Loss Leader

The Hyperscalers are betting trillions that AI will restore their golden cashflow era. The economics underneath it are far weaker than the share prices suggest.

Era of the Mega-IPO

With more massive IPOs expected from the AI trade I take a look at history to see what it has to say about our market in the mega-IPO era.

Small Caps

IPO Fever: America Builds Its Tallest Tower Yet

America stands accused of rigging the World Cup. Meanwhile the mega-IPOs keep coming, the Fed has gone quiet, and the skyscraper index hints at where this bull market sits.

Why the US market needs to go up (and what next)

Is the American financial empire crumbling? I’m not so sure this posse of unhinged savages knows how to lose. Regardless, have a think of what the next leg of the AI trade looks like.

Remember: It’s a market of stocks

Paul Dichiera

A bubble in US semiconductors doesn’t mean everything blows up. Greg Canavan explains why it’s a market of stocks, not a stock market, and where Aussie capital is moving.

It’s the chip machines, stupid!

A niche fight over Dutch chip machines reveals who really controls AI, war‑fighting tech and future prosperity — and why critical minerals investors can’t afford to ignore it.

Why a Boring Market Might Be Your Friend

Oil down, stocks up, ASX shuffles sideways. While Wall Street sprints off into the distance, our sleepy market might be the safer place to stand when the rally finally cracks.

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Market Analysis

Mission Accomplished

Markets are buoyed by a softer US inflation print thanks to cheaper petrol. But with the Strait of Hormuz erupting again, that win may already be borrowed against the future.

Pick a Direction

Greg Canavan

Summertime in the north means sleepy markets, but that doesn’t mean risk isn’t present. After an ambling year for the ASX, we look to be at a crossroads.

The Trillion-Dollar Bet

Prediction markets have grown into a US$50 billion-a-month behemoth almost overnight. Some in Australia want a piece of the action.

The Art of Doing Nothing

The ceasefire is over, the ASX is going sideways and markets can’t pick a direction. History’s best investors say the smartest move right now might be no move at all.

Four Healthcare Recovery Plays

Murray Dawes

Murray explains why patience is often a trader’s greatest weapon, introduces his simple traffic light system for judging market conditions and also looks at the post tax-loss-selling rebound emerging in healthcare stocks.

Macro

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump

The pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of a key meeting with Xi next week. What could this mean for our markets.

What Does China Know That We Don’t?

China’s oil hoarding may be a signal for a longer game than the West expects.

Australia’s Vibecession

The ASX is diverging from the optimism we’re seeing in US markets. What’s the driving force, and what can we do about it?

If You’re Confused, So Is Everyone Else