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Fat Tail Daily – ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

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10% ASX correction on the cards, but lithium keeps shining.

Weekly videos with expert insights on investing, economics, and finance for Australian investors. Subscribe to our YouTube channel

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Nvidia earnings beat won’t stop the slide, but the Fed just might

Lachlann Tierney

Nvidia’s earnings beat won’t halt market slides according to Lachlann Tierney. Fed rate cuts hold the key as debt delinquencies rise and private credit risks loom large.

Investment fads keep dying before I can profit from them

Nick Hubble

By the time I’ve figured out how to profit from the latest government-driven investment boom, it suddenly ceases to exit. How can politicians be this fickle?

Bitcoin’s Rocky Descent: Why This Isn’t Winter (Yet)

Lachlann Tierney

Bitcoin has plunged 24% from October’s peak to a seven-month low, but Lachlann Tierney things this shakeout isn’t a crypto winter yet. US regulatory support and central bank easing suggest otherwise.

Why ‘One-Hit Wonder’ Explorers Will Burn Your Money: The Repeatability Test

James Cooper

In James Cooper’s ongoing series about ‘geology for investors, ’ he details why grades aren’t the only factor in exploration success.

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Commodities

Investment fads keep dying before I can profit from them

Nick Hubble

By the time I’ve figured out how to profit from the latest government-driven investment boom, it suddenly ceases to exit. How can politicians be this fickle?

Why ‘One-Hit Wonder’ Explorers Will Burn Your Money: The Repeatability Test

James Cooper

In James Cooper’s ongoing series about ‘geology for investors, ’ he details why grades aren’t the only factor in exploration success.

The Big Dig Returns

James Cooper

Decades of underinvestment mirror past commodity booms. As geopolitical tensions and supply constraints intensify, Australia’s next “Big Dig” supercycle emerges—echoing the 1970s and China’s 2000s infrastructure surge.

This chart shows you why the move in resources is just getting started

Greg Canavan

With James away at the Noosa Mining Conference, Greg Canavan explains why the resource sector looks good in an overvalued market. And recent activity suggests big money could move into the sector in 2026.

Breaking up with China is hard to do

Nick Hubble

While business deals are indeed booming on the back of Trump’s deal making blitz, I’m not convinced they’re offsetting the pace of economic decline.

Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

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Technology

Cassandra Goes Unheard

Charlie Ormond

Michael Burry from ‘The Big Short’ has emerged into the public eye with fresh bubble warnings. But once again, his warnings are ‘uninvited and unwelcome’ to the market.

The K-Shaped Economy Spells Trouble

Charlie Ormond

As the pandemic showed, the K-shaped recovery is no longer just about income brackets. It’s about which companies serve which customers, and the recent earnings season gave us some signs that the divide is growing.

Crypto Dip

Charlie Ormond

James argues that Crypto’s latest dip isn’t a disaster—it’s a disguise. All we see are headlines about falling prices, but he believes Wall Street giants like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are quietly building the foundation for crypto’s next major run.

North Star Fading

Charlie Ormond

We’re funding the most expensive science experiment in history… With shareholders’ money. Investors are starting to get anxious that we haven’t heard a peep from the biggest tech names in some time. While they have been looking North, I’ve been hunting elsewhere.

Time to Gamble on Prediction Markets?

Charlie Ormond

A new trillion-dollar sector is breaking wide open in the crypto markets, and though most people have probably seen its influence in the daily news, most have no idea how to get in. Until today…

Small-Caps

Nvidia earnings beat won’t stop the slide, but the Fed just might

Lachlann Tierney

Nvidia’s earnings beat won’t halt market slides according to Lachlann Tierney. Fed rate cuts hold the key as debt delinquencies rise and private credit risks loom large.

Macro

AI is the Bubble. Taiwan is the Pin

Charlie Ormond

There’s another major risk that people seem to have forgotten about, and this week, Australia’s intelligence community is making sure we’re paying attention

Crypto

Record Highs or a Monetary Mirage?

Ryan Dinse

If you don’t get this basic fact right, you’re reading everything else wrong.

Economy

The Quiet Opportunity in Australian Beef

Charlie Ormond

Australian lean beef has climbed to multi-year highs, while share prices remain muted. That sounds like an opportunity to me.

Market-Analysis

ASX About to Crack?

Murray Dawes

In today’s Closing Bell, we look at the ASX 200’s sudden slide, why key support is so important here, and how a false break could turn into a near 10% correction into Christmas. I also touch on the growing cracks in weaker AI names, such as Oracle and Meta, and what that might mean for the broader market. We finish on a positive note with a brief look at the lithium stocks that are still running. Hit play to see the levels and charts I’m watching now.

ASX News Update

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank [ASX:BEN] Shares Dip Despite Profit Growth

Charlie Ormond

Bendigo’s shares slid today after a mixed earnings report that had some highs but also signs of trouble ahead for the economy.

Resources and Mining

Whitehaven Coal [ASX:WHC] Surges as Fire Disrupts Market

Charlie Ormond

A fire at Grosvenor coal mine has sent rival coal companies soaring, is now the time to invest?

Series

ASX About to Crack?

Murray Dawes

In today’s Closing Bell, we look at the ASX 200’s sudden slide, why key support is so important here, and how a false break could turn into a near 10% correction into Christmas. I also touch on the growing cracks in weaker AI names, such as Oracle and Meta, and what that might mean for the broader market. We finish on a positive note with a brief look at the lithium stocks that are still running. Hit play to see the levels and charts I’m watching now.

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Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.

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All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.

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