Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

UAE’s OPEC exit jolts oil, ASX gas is going on a tear, and just quietly, the Iran war sets up uranium as the market’s likely next big energy trade.

Nickel: The Oil Trade of 2025

James Cooper

Is it a good strategy to focus on out-of-favour and undervalued commodities? We look at some past and present examples to get an understanding.

An ASX investor’s guide to the Trump-Xi Summit

Trump and Xi meet face to face in the coming weeks, while Australia quietly becomes the fulcrum of their cold war for tech and resources.

The National Debt is Too…Small?

Nick Hubble

Twenty years after the Howard government paid off our national debt, Australia is back in debtors’ prison. But is it really such a bad place to be?

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Nickel: The Oil Trade of 2025

James Cooper

Is it a good strategy to focus on out-of-favour and undervalued commodities? We look at some past and present examples to get an understanding.

The National Debt is Too…Small?

Nick Hubble

Twenty years after the Howard government paid off our national debt, Australia is back in debtors’ prison. But is it really such a bad place to be?

Why mining stocks love a sovereign debt crisis

Nick Hubble

When politicians begin to worry about the national debt, they are about to admit economic growth matters most. And that means handing out investment opportunities to resources investors.

The Seasonal Secret Behind Oil’s Boom-and-Bust Cycle

James Cooper

A recurring historical pattern suggests oil’s next big move could arrive by the end of 2026.

Another obstacle to the Epstein client list is falling

Brian Chu

Progress in bringing justice on the Epstein saga has been slow. Yet, the latest takedown of a high-profile Democrat member might offer clues that the next steps of the process are underway.

Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

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The Company Who Cried Wolf

AI company Anthropic has been on the rooftops shouting about the threats of its upcoming model. Insiders have widely panned the move as a marketing ploy. So where are the risks?

AI’s Next Bottleneck is Plumbing

Everyone’s watching chips and power. Almost no one is watching the optical shifts that insiders are scrambling to solve. That’s about to change.

An Era of ‘Cheap War’

Drones are reshaping warfare. And the economics of shooting them down don’t add up. Here’s one company that could change that.

Our Modern Interregnum (Pt. 4)

The final part of Charlie Ormond’s meditation on our modern era. Today explores three ways our current crisis could end, and a clear investible solution.

Our Modern Interregnum (Pt. 3)

Part 3 of Charlie Ormond’s meditation on our modern era. Today explores the hidden mechanism behind today’s supply shock.

Remember: Oil>Gas>Uranium

UAE’s OPEC exit jolts oil, ASX gas is going on a tear, and just quietly, the Iran war sets up uranium as the market’s likely next big energy trade.

An ASX investor’s guide to the Trump-Xi Summit

Trump and Xi meet face to face in the coming weeks, while Australia quietly becomes the fulcrum of their cold war for tech and resources.

Advanced Gamblenomics: A brief guide to why the ASX 200 sucks

The historical performance of the S&P500 vs the ASX 200 reveals a big opportunity for Aussie investors. And it starts with what Lachlann Tierney calls “gamblenomics”.

Iran War Winners #2 and #3: Copper and Nickel

A sulphur squeeze in the Gulf, Indonesia slashing nickel quotas and an AI data‑centre arms spell big things for nickel and copper prices.

Iran War Winner #1: Lithium

Battery Energy Storage Systems are the quiet winner from the Iran war, pulling forward a huge new wave of lithium demand just as EV demand re-accelerates and supply stalls.

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Market Nerves Return This Week

Aussie stocks had a rough week, falling around 2% while US markets held firm. With uncertainty still hanging over Iran, investors are watching fuel, fertiliser and commodity supply risks closely.

The Pros Got Crushed… What That Means for You

Markets have just ripped higher, with the S&P 500 surging 15% in less than two weeks. But beneath the surface, things aren’t nearly as strong as they look.

Markets surged this week on news of a ceasefire in Iran. But a strict reading of the trading model suggests caution, with short-term risks still pointing to potential downside despite strong price action.

Trump Whiplash Sends Markets Spinning Again

In today’s Closing Bell, we analyse a wide range of viewer-requested stocks, from coal and fertilisers to lithium, rare earths, drones, and pharma.

Major Support Under Siege in US Markets

US markets are sitting on a knife-edge after another sharp sell-off. The risk is that we’re approaching the point where selling overwhelms buyers, and the correction accelerates.

Macro

What Does China Know That We Don’t?

China’s oil hoarding may be a signal for a longer game than the West expects.

Australia’s Vibecession

The ASX is diverging from the optimism we’re seeing in US markets. What’s the driving force, and what can we do about it?

If You’re Confused, So Is Everyone Else

The lack of a clear narrative for this market recovery suggests underlying confusion. So what can be done?

The Last Barrels

Australia’s fuel vulnerability just went from theoretical to very real overnight.

The Cockroaches are Multiplying