You can’t analyse the 18.6-year cycle using short-term data, yet most real estate indexes only go back a few decades. However, the one I want to tell you about today, charts spanning 350 years of housing data. Few know of its existence, let alone its significance to the study of the 18.6-year land cycle…
Today I share with you an interview I did with the chief economics commentator at the Financial Times in London, Martin Wolf. He has just released a new book, The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism. In it, he argues that capitalism has become distorted by monopolistic interests, leading to a corruption of democratic processes. He warns that unless we address this problem, our economies and societies will break down — and worse still, we could be ‘sleepwalking into war’…
We put a lot of emphasis on the residential market when analysing the land cycle. However, few are aware that historically, the commercial real estate booms and busts have had a far more significant impact on Australia’s economy. It’s a massive sector, but unless you’re in the market — doing deals day in, day out — it’s not easy to keep on top of the trends. With this in mind, I reached out to ‘property whisperer’ Warren Ebert for an interview…
The core to learning the mechanics of the 18.6-year land cycle is fully understanding the role of economic rent (unearned income) and rent-seeking in the economy. Throughout the cycle, the greatest economic gains always come from owning the rights to land. However, rent-seeking can take on many forms. Read on to find out more…
Today, learn all about Judge James G Maguire, who published ideas in 1879 that electrified the world. He had identified the underlying cause of the boom-and-bust cycle and provided a practical remedy. Read on to find out more…
The mainstream media never gives voice to the economists with a solid record of forecasting the booms and busts in the economy. They’re considered mavericks in their profession. It’s still thought to be impossible to accurately forecast future recessions by the powers that hold influence over monetary and fiscal policy. But today, I give you a list of those who were able to do it. Read on…
Today we’re learning about Roy Wenzlick…the one loan voice forecasting a boom following the devastating Depression of the 1930s. It was a controversial call — yet it happened. The US and UK real estate markets roared in the 1940s post-war boom. It played out just as Wenzlick’s analysis had shown. And, if we were to apply Wenzlick’s analysis to our current economic situation, a similar forecast would be on the cards…
There is an immigration bomb sitting underneath the Australian property market, and it’s threatening to put a rocket under property prices as we head into the winner’s curse phase of this cycle (between 2024–26). As it is, there are not enough properties on the rental market to meet demand — and arguably, not enough listed for sale either! So what’s the solution? Read on to find out, in an interview I had with MacroBusiness cofounder Leith Van Olsen…
With all that’s been happening in the markets recently, the property market is undoubtedly in for a U-turn. If so, it threatens to put a light under the market as we transit into the ‘winner curse; phase of the cycle between 2024-2026 — exactly as we would expect as we run into the peak.
News of the US Silicon Valley Bank collapse has flooded the media headlines over the past week, and unsurprisingly, many are wondering how it fits in with the real estate cycle. Read on for a breakdown…
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