The Federal Budget, the Property Market, and the ‘Law of Economic Absorption’
I managed to pin my eyes open to watch the budget speech the other night. It reads like Christmas morning for the property sector
When you read articles about Australian housing affordability, it is often comparing the single average adult wage to house prices, from generations ago.
The articles generally say something like, ‘a house was worth three times the annual average wage back in the sixties and is now worth 10 times the average wage. This shows housing has become unaffordable.’
You can’t compare the two because back in the sixties it was one wage bidding on real estate.
The days of Dad going off to work, while Mum tends the children are long gone, just like the black and white TVs of that era.
It is now usually at least two incomes bidding on Australian real estate, land price has quickly factored that in. So you can’t compare the two figures.
These days you need to find historical figures for combined household income and compare the two.
When you do that you may find housing affordability hasn’t run away at all, but is simply keeping pace with wages.

I managed to pin my eyes open to watch the budget speech the other night. It reads like Christmas morning for the property sector

The recent floods in Queensland and northern New South Wales have had a devastating effect on the property market.

Another day, another forecast from one of the major banks throwing a dart to give their latest forecast for the housing market.

We’re roaring into the second half of the real estate cycle. That means over the next few years, a lot of money will continue to pour into Australia’s property market. And this includes the financing of some mega development projects. One that hit the press last week is a $650 million plan to refurbish a […]

Dear Reader, The last place you should turn when looking for accurate house price forecasts are the big banks. Take Westpac, for example. Back in 2020, they forecast a whopping 10% fall in national property prices between April 2020 and June 2021. When it became clear how spectacularly wrong that forecast was, they backflipped. The […]

Dear Reader, 1) Talk about a slap across the cheek this morning! One of the most reliable recession indicators in history is the ‘tall building effect’. It’s the idea that record-high skyscrapers have a nasty habit of opening in recession. It’s not a new idea. But it’s an important one! And what do I see […]
By Callum Newman,
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