In the 20th episode jubilee of What’s Not Priced In, Greg Canavan and I cover the latest moves in the bond market, the Reserve Bank’s latest decision, fearful market sentiment, and the outlook for key commodities. Enjoy…
Should central banks worry about rising oil prices? And what do high oil prices imply about the state of the global economy? Let’s do some basic economic analysis to find out…
Only 40 stocks in the ASX 200 are in the green this month. Markets are blaming rising bond yields. So where do things stand? Will interest rates remain ‘higher for longer’ and further depress stock valuations? Or will the economy buckle under the high interest rate regime, forcing central banks to cut rates? And will that really be a boon for markets (hint, no, it won’t). Are we entering a new bear market? And is there still room for a skilled stock picker to snag bargains? Greg Canavan and I covered all this and more in the latest episode of What’s Not Priced In.
Retail prices are soaring. But why? The answer lies in Australia’s dwindling refining capacity. It turns out we are at the whim of global markets. What does this mean in the long-term? Read on to find out…
All together now, interest rates are staying ‘higher for longer’. The US Fed is dead set on taming inflation and rising long-term yields show investors think advanced economies can bring about disinflation without recession. But the ‘higher for longer’ crowd is grossly underpricing the risks of a sharper economic slowdown. The cure for inflation always has unpleasant side effects. Just ask Milton Friedman.
Are most stocks on the ASX fairly priced? How efficient is the market? I put market efficiency to the test by selecting five ASX 200 stocks at random to see whether their intrinsic value approximates their market price. Read on for the results…
Consensus is now firming that interest rates will stay ‘higher for longer’. But when consensus forms in markets, it’s time to listen to your inner contrarian. The mantra of ‘higher for longer’ may be superseded by ‘lower and sooner’. What’s not priced in? As household savings dissipate and consumer demand falls, central banks could end up cutting more than expected in 2024…
The Department of Industry, Science and Resources thinks Australia is ‘set to become a renewable energy superpower’. Our ‘vast coastline’ and ‘clear skies’ are ideal for solar and wind. These natural endowments mean Australia has the ‘second-highest potential for solar power production in the world’. All this is great. But how much of that potential should Australia realise? And how quickly? Will it be worth it?
The shift to cleaner energy isn’t advocated on climate change grounds alone. Yes, the 2022 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report said ‘climate change is a threat to well-being and planetary health’. A threat that can be assuaged by phasing out fossil fuels. But the push for net zero emissions has economic backing, too.
In today’s Money Morning…the debate over the energy transition seems to boil down to a massive cost-benefit analysis…are the benefits of renewable energy enough to offset fossil fuel divestment?…money talks…and more…
Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.
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