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Fat Tail Daily – ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

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LATEST VIDEO:
The 2026 Playbook: Rates, USD, Resources

Weekly videos with expert insights on investing, economics, and finance for Australian investors. Subscribe to our YouTube channel

US China Relations - Tensions Escalating US China Cold War

5D Computer Chip Chess…is good for ASX small caps?

Lachlann Tierney

What does a Cold War era piece of Dutch legislation have to do with ASX small and micro-caps? Hear me out on this, as it could have a big impact on your investments in 2026.

Why the AI data centre doubters are delusional

Nick Hubble

Analysis of the AI boom assumes it is subject to the rules of capitalism. Valuations, returns, cashflow… But what if we are dealing with something more like the Space Race?

Pacifism doesn’t work with ideologies of hatred

Lachlann Tierney

A few reflections on recent events in Australia.

As markets Detach from Reality, Focus on Stocks Producing Real Things

James Cooper

Cheap resource companies producing real things, that’s what James Cooper and Greg Canavan discuss in this latest edition of Mining Memo.

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Commodities

Why the AI data centre doubters are delusional

Nick Hubble

Analysis of the AI boom assumes it is subject to the rules of capitalism. Valuations, returns, cashflow… But what if we are dealing with something more like the Space Race?

As markets Detach from Reality, Focus on Stocks Producing Real Things

James Cooper

Cheap resource companies producing real things, that’s what James Cooper and Greg Canavan discuss in this latest edition of Mining Memo.

As markets Detach from Reality, Focus on Stocks Producing Real Things

James Cooper

Cheap resource companies producing real things, that’s what James Cooper and Greg Canavan discuss in this latest edition of Mining Memo.

As markets Detach from Reality, Focus on Stocks Producing Real Things

James Cooper

Cheap resource companies producing real things, that’s what James Cooper and Greg Canavan discuss in this latest edition of Mining Memo.

MAGAnomics is coming for Australia, whether we vote for it or not

Nick Hubble

Forecasting is easy. You only need to predict what’s already happening overseas will eventually come to Australia. And the next big shift is the rise of Trump-style economic policy.

Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

Please read our Terms & Conditions.

We will collect and handle your personal information in accordance with our Privacy Policy.

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Technology

AI’s New Orbital Silicon Valley

Charlie Ormond

Bloomberg breaks the biggest IPO news in years, Charlie and Ray explore what it means for early investors in the latest space race.

Prediction double-down for 2026

Charlie Ormond

In my opinion, Tesla has become a symbol of blind AI optimism for retail investors. Whether that’s their promised full self-driving (FSD) or mass-scale robotics in 2026, investors should be ready for another harsh dose of reality.

The Canary is Coughing

Charlie Ormond

US employment data has long served as an early warning system for the global economy. When American workers start losing jobs, trouble tends to follow…For markets, for Australia, and eventually for your portfolio.

The Problem with Exponentials

Charlie Ormond

The difference between AI that can reliably handle two-hour tasks and AI that can handle multi-week tasks isn’t just more capacity. It’s a fundamentally different economic reality.

A Case for Optimism

Charlie Ormond

James’s makes a case for optimism in a market freaking out over tariffs, shutdowns, and AI bubble fears. He thinks three major developments are quietly pointing in the opposite direction to what you may think.

Small-Caps

5D Computer Chip Chess…is good for ASX small caps?

Lachlann Tierney

What does a Cold War era piece of Dutch legislation have to do with ASX small and micro-caps? Hear me out on this, as it could have a big impact on your investments in 2026.

Macro

The Backdoor Entry: Why Majors Buy 10% Stakes Years Before 100% Takeovers

James Cooper

When mining majors take strategic stakes in juniors, it signals serious interest. Learn why these small bites precede billion-dollar takeover deals.

Crypto

Record Highs or a Monetary Mirage?

Ryan Dinse

If you don’t get this basic fact right, you’re reading everything else wrong.

Economy

The Quiet Opportunity in Australian Beef

Charlie Ormond

Australian lean beef has climbed to multi-year highs, while share prices remain muted. That sounds like an opportunity to me.

Market-Analysis

Closing Bell Finale: The Setup for 2026

Murray Dawes

This is the final live Closing Bell for 2025, and it tees up what Murray thinks could matter most in 2026. The big theme is the growing gap between Australian and US interest rates. Falling US rates and a softer US dollar could shape the biggest opportunities next year. A weaker US dollar is helping commodities push higher, and the move is already showing up across gold, silver, copper, rare earths, lithium, and uranium, with more upside possible.

ASX News Update

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank [ASX:BEN] Shares Dip Despite Profit Growth

Charlie Ormond

Bendigo’s shares slid today after a mixed earnings report that had some highs but also signs of trouble ahead for the economy.

Resources and Mining

Whitehaven Coal [ASX:WHC] Surges as Fire Disrupts Market

Charlie Ormond

A fire at Grosvenor coal mine has sent rival coal companies soaring, is now the time to invest?

Series

Closing Bell Finale: The Setup for 2026

Murray Dawes

This is the final live Closing Bell for 2025, and it tees up what Murray thinks could matter most in 2026. The big theme is the growing gap between Australian and US interest rates. Falling US rates and a softer US dollar could shape the biggest opportunities next year. A weaker US dollar is helping commodities push higher, and the move is already showing up across gold, silver, copper, rare earths, lithium, and uranium, with more upside possible.

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Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.

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All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.

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