Fat Tail Daily – ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

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The Carry Trade Warning Signal

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The Carry Trade Warning Signal

The ASX 200 just ripped 400 points higher, but that doesn’t mean the coast is clear. The setup in the S&P 500 suggests a correction could be closer than most investors think, and the sharp drop in USDJPY hints that carry trades may already be unwinding.

Bank Stocks Surge: But Danger Lies Ahead

CBA’s extreme volatility and Big Tech’s wild swings suggest distribution is underway. Time to shift capital toward emerging resource sectors.

Tech Stocks: Oversold or Obsolete?

The market has thrown out anything remotely connected to traditional software-as-a-service (SaaS) businesses. But high-quality software names with multi-year contracts, regulatory moats, and deep customer integrations have been caught in the crossfire. For patient investors, that’s an opportunity.

China Capitulation Part 5 – The Chinese Titanic has hit the iceberg

You may have heard on the news about scam centres operating out of South East Asia and how they lured unsuspecting people to a living hell.

Commodities

Bank Stocks Surge: But Danger Lies Ahead

CBA’s extreme volatility and Big Tech’s wild swings suggest distribution is underway. Time to shift capital toward emerging resource sectors.

Another Strategy for Your Investment Toolkit

Charts aren’t just for traders—they help long-term investors time entries and avoid costly mistakes even when the fundamentals look strong.

Make Japan Great Again

Whatever political desires have been lurking in Japanese minds are about to be unleashed. The country has the opportunity to govern itself again.

Tech Hits a Wall—Energy Breaks Out

While tech falters and markets correct, energy stocks surge 15% higher—revealing a major sector rotation few investors anticipated or understand.

Oil Services: The Leveraged Play on Energy’s Next Move

Oil prices may be stuck, but service stocks aren’t. Here’s how I’m using technical analysis to capture early gains in this sector.

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Technology

Tech Stocks: Oversold or Obsolete?

The market has thrown out anything remotely connected to traditional software-as-a-service (SaaS) businesses. But high-quality software names with multi-year contracts, regulatory moats, and deep customer integrations have been caught in the crossfire. For patient investors, that’s an opportunity.

Bitcoin’s Identity Crisis

The new Fed nominee has called Bitcoin a ‘sustainable store of value,’ and the ‘new gold’ for anyone under 40. So why isn’t Bitcoin surging? The answer reveals something important about what Bitcoin is in this moment, and whether it belongs in your portfolio.

The RBA Goes It Alone

While the world’s central banks keep cutting, the Reserve Bank hit reverse on Tuesday.

All That Glitters is D̷͚͂̋o̶͔͐ỏ̵̠̅m̷̪̌e̵͓̐d̵̳͔͒

Gold at record highs isn’t a victory lap — it’s a warning siren for the global financial system.

Tech-Rocks Pt.3: How Commodities And AI Lead to More of Both

Lachlann Tierney

AI data centres devour copper, lithium, rare earths. Meanwhile, AI tracks the minerals it needs. The feedback loop is just beginning.

Small-Caps

China Capitulation Part 5 – The Chinese Titanic has hit the iceberg

You may have heard on the news about scam centres operating out of South East Asia and how they lured unsuspecting people to a living hell.

Macro

September 11, 1973:The Other 9/11 America Doesn’t Talk About

Chile’s copper nationalisation triggered a US-backed coup in 1973. With Venezuela’s oil at stake, are we witnessing history repeat itself?

Crypto

Record Highs or a Monetary Mirage?

If you don’t get this basic fact right, you’re reading everything else wrong.

Economy

The Quiet Opportunity in Australian Beef

Australian lean beef has climbed to multi-year highs, while share prices remain muted. That sounds like an opportunity to me.

Market-Analysis

The Carry Trade Warning Signal

The ASX 200 just ripped 400 points higher, but that doesn’t mean the coast is clear. The setup in the S&P 500 suggests a correction could be closer than most investors think, and the sharp drop in USDJPY hints that carry trades may already be unwinding.

ASX News Update

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank [ASX:BEN] Shares Dip Despite Profit Growth

Bendigo’s shares slid today after a mixed earnings report that had some highs but also signs of trouble ahead for the economy.

Resources and Mining

Whitehaven Coal [ASX:WHC] Surges as Fire Disrupts Market

A fire at Grosvenor coal mine has sent rival coal companies soaring, is now the time to invest?

Series

The Carry Trade Warning Signal

The ASX 200 just ripped 400 points higher, but that doesn’t mean the coast is clear. The setup in the S&P 500 suggests a correction could be closer than most investors think, and the sharp drop in USDJPY hints that carry trades may already be unwinding.

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All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.