Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

A US$2 billion deal for an AI agent was unwound by Beijing this week. The implications for global AI, capital flows and your portfolio are bigger than the price tag.

Big Tech Just Broke the Tape

US stocks remain bulletproof while the ASX lags. Murray and Charlie look at a software bounce-back trade and run the ruler over a bunch of viewer-suggested stocks.

Indonesia Killed the Nickel Market. Now It’s Pulling the Strings

James Cooper

Indonesia flooded the nickel market, crushed its rivals, and closed its mines. Now it’s tightening supply to reap the rewards.

Winner of Iran War #4: Companies “doing nothing”

There are some unexpected winners on the ASX the could benefit from high oil prices. And part of that boils down to the fact they aren’t “doing anything” yet.

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Indonesia Killed the Nickel Market. Now It’s Pulling the Strings

James Cooper

Indonesia flooded the nickel market, crushed its rivals, and closed its mines. Now it’s tightening supply to reap the rewards.

Manufactured outrage, false narratives and radicalisation: Unveiling the dark conspiracy network

Brian Chu

Beyond Eric Swalwell and #MeToo, the Department of Justice indicted the Southern Poverty Law Centre for money laundering and wire fraud.

Nickel: The Oil Trade of 2025

James Cooper

Is it a good strategy to focus on out-of-favour and undervalued commodities? We look at some past and present examples to get an understanding.

The National Debt is Too…Small?

Nick Hubble

Twenty years after the Howard government paid off our national debt, Australia is back in debtors’ prison. But is it really such a bad place to be?

Why mining stocks love a sovereign debt crisis

Nick Hubble

When politicians begin to worry about the national debt, they are about to admit economic growth matters most. And that means handing out investment opportunities to resources investors.

Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

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The Thin Red Line

A US$2 billion deal for an AI agent was unwound by Beijing this week. The implications for global AI, capital flows and your portfolio are bigger than the price tag.

The Company Who Cried Wolf

AI company Anthropic has been on the rooftops shouting about the threats of its upcoming model. Insiders have widely panned the move as a marketing ploy. So where are the risks?

AI’s Next Bottleneck is Plumbing

Everyone’s watching chips and power. Almost no one is watching the optical shifts that insiders are scrambling to solve. That’s about to change.

An Era of ‘Cheap War’

Drones are reshaping warfare. And the economics of shooting them down don’t add up. Here’s one company that could change that.

Our Modern Interregnum (Pt. 4)

The final part of Charlie Ormond’s meditation on our modern era. Today explores three ways our current crisis could end, and a clear investible solution.

Winner of Iran War #4: Companies “doing nothing”

There are some unexpected winners on the ASX the could benefit from high oil prices. And part of that boils down to the fact they aren’t “doing anything” yet.

Remember: Oil>Gas>Uranium

UAE’s OPEC exit jolts oil, ASX gas is going on a tear, and just quietly, the Iran war sets up uranium as the market’s likely next big energy trade.

An ASX investor’s guide to the Trump-Xi Summit

Trump and Xi meet face to face in the coming weeks, while Australia quietly becomes the fulcrum of their cold war for tech and resources.

Advanced Gamblenomics: A brief guide to why the ASX 200 sucks

The historical performance of the S&P500 vs the ASX 200 reveals a big opportunity for Aussie investors. And it starts with what Lachlann Tierney calls “gamblenomics”.

Iran War Winners #2 and #3: Copper and Nickel

A sulphur squeeze in the Gulf, Indonesia slashing nickel quotas and an AI data‑centre arms spell big things for nickel and copper prices.

Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

Please read our Terms & Conditions.

We will collect and handle your personal information in accordance with our Privacy Policy.

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Big Tech Just Broke the Tape

US stocks remain bulletproof while the ASX lags. Murray and Charlie look at a software bounce-back trade and run the ruler over a bunch of viewer-suggested stocks.

Market Nerves Return This Week

Aussie stocks had a rough week, falling around 2% while US markets held firm. With uncertainty still hanging over Iran, investors are watching fuel, fertiliser and commodity supply risks closely.

The Pros Got Crushed… What That Means for You

Markets have just ripped higher, with the S&P 500 surging 15% in less than two weeks. But beneath the surface, things aren’t nearly as strong as they look.

Markets surged this week on news of a ceasefire in Iran. But a strict reading of the trading model suggests caution, with short-term risks still pointing to potential downside despite strong price action.

Trump Whiplash Sends Markets Spinning Again

In today’s Closing Bell, we analyse a wide range of viewer-requested stocks, from coal and fertilisers to lithium, rare earths, drones, and pharma.

Macro

What Does China Know That We Don’t?

China’s oil hoarding may be a signal for a longer game than the West expects.

Australia’s Vibecession

The ASX is diverging from the optimism we’re seeing in US markets. What’s the driving force, and what can we do about it?

If You’re Confused, So Is Everyone Else

The lack of a clear narrative for this market recovery suggests underlying confusion. So what can be done?

The Last Barrels

Australia’s fuel vulnerability just went from theoretical to very real overnight.

The Cockroaches are Multiplying