Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

A chip earnings miss and a hot jobs report just vaporised trillions from US stocks. Before you chase the SpaceX IPO, understand the trap the Fed has walked into — and why it sets up the next decade’s trade.

Gold breaks a new low for 2026 – Why buying now may be your best move

Brian Chu

In just five months, sentiment for gold and precious metals turned from euphoria to fear. While the Iranian conflict rages, market valuation has gone out of control. Will there be a smooth landing or a crash? Gold benefits either way…

But lithium ain’t one

Lithium’s been left for dead, but sentiment has turned. Lachlann Tierney shows you why this “specialty chemical” says it could be gearing up for one last explosive run.

Part 1: A Commodity Deep Dive; Uncovering the Stinkers vs Opportunities

James Cooper

In Part 1 of this series, James Cooper sits down with Greg Canavan for a Commodity Deep Dive; uncovering the Stinkers vs Opportunities in the market.

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Commodities

Gold breaks a new low for 2026 – Why buying now may be your best move

Brian Chu

Part 1: A Commodity Deep Dive; Uncovering the Stinkers vs Opportunities

James Cooper

In Part 1 of this series, James Cooper sits down with Greg Canavan for a Commodity Deep Dive; uncovering the Stinkers vs Opportunities in the market.

What does the rise of One Nation mean for your stocks?

Nick Hubble

Australia now has a four-party political system. But what happens to investors in such a standoff? It’s not hard to find precedents…

Picks, Shovels and the New Investment Playbook: How to Position for the Decade Ahead

James Cooper

The 1970s saw commodities soar while growth stocks cratered. History rarely repeats — but investors should understand how it rhymes.

How gold mining companies create value: A director’s perspective

Brian Chu

You may be familiar with how to evaluate and select gold mining companies. Today you’re going to hear it from a director who has an established track record of creating value. Find out what makes him tick.

Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

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Technology

Don’t Chase the Rocket Pt.1

The Spy Who Hacked Me

The NSA is now using the world’s most powerful AI to break into foreign governments. Cybersecurity is a more durable theme than you think.

A New AI Leader is Emerging

It’s been a busy quarter for AI as the biggest names vie for our attention while the biggest Aussie data centres fight for the latest mega-deal from Anthropic.

Volatility Is the New Norm

Tonight’s US data dump lands at a market already looking stretched by hype and rattled by fresh strikes on Iran. Here’s one tool to navigate it.

The AI code smoky

Digital infrastructure follows the same trend: Research, then scale. The internet did it. The cloud did it. AI is doing it now. As Paul Dichiera explains, the same monetisation question that hung over the last two booms is now dangling over this one. And the answer is the same too.

Small Caps

But lithium ain’t one

Lithium’s been left for dead, but sentiment has turned. Lachlann Tierney shows you why this “specialty chemical” says it could be gearing up for one last explosive run.

Offense wins elections, defence wins markets

Australia’s economy is wheezing and the ASX defensives are running hot, but with US IPOs booming and commodity tailwinds building, the real action might be hunting bargains in beaten-down small-caps.

April micro-cap flashback

In April micro-caps were getting smashed by war, oil and credit stress — but perhaps rising commodity prices could soon force capital back into quality small stocks, setting up a powerful rebound.

Don’t Sleep on ‘Boring’ Tech

Paul Dichiera

The strongest AI-backed companies hide in the market’s dullest corners. They’re businesses too boring to disrupt. Think Hotel booking, accounts and payroll, freight management.

Sell in May? These Aren’t the Losses You’re Looking For

The federal budget’s CGT changes were meant to punish risk capital. Instead, they may have forced open a rare buying window in beaten-up ASX small caps and commodities.

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Market Analysis

Your Best Ideas Under the Microscope

The first Friday of the month means one thing: viewer stock picks. Charlie and Murray hand over stock selection duties to the audience and work through a huge list of companies spanning copper, gold, lithium, rare earths, graphite, mineral sands, biotech, platinum group metals, drone technology, advanced memory chips, and more.

Passive Investing’s Reckoning Approaches

While the ASX 200 appears relatively stable, much of that strength is coming from the banks, BHP and Rio, while many former market favourites are suffering heavy declines beneath the surface.

Markets Whipsaw as Yields Surge

Charlie and Murray discuss the jump in bond yields around the world, the upcoming CGT changes, and the whipsaw in the ASX 200 this week.

The Budget from Hell

In this week’s Closing Bell, Murray and Charlie break down the budget fallout, the opportunities that may emerge during the transition period, and why this remains a brutal but fascinating stock picker’s market.

Markets Brace for Tuesday Shock

Murray and Charlie look at whether fears surrounding next week’s budget and potential capital gains tax changes are beginning to trigger selling pressure across the market.

Macro

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump

The pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of a key meeting with Xi next week. What could this mean for our markets.

What Does China Know That We Don’t?

China’s oil hoarding may be a signal for a longer game than the West expects.

Australia’s Vibecession

The ASX is diverging from the optimism we’re seeing in US markets. What’s the driving force, and what can we do about it?

If You’re Confused, So Is Everyone Else