Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

The ASX has bounced, the war drones on, and private credit lurks. Lachlann runs the Rumsfeld matrix on markets. And it turns out, we might be just fine.

The Great Energy Pivot: Rewriting the Oil Trade [Part III]

Critical Minerals have been touted for their supply concentration; but rarely is oil put in that category. Yet three countries control almost half of the world’s supply.

Silver, Juice and Power

Iran is taxing oil in yuan and crypto, but how many ounces of silver do I need to buy a pound of frozen OJ? What a weird commodity pair reveals about money, energy and power.

Beyond the fog of war, big changes are taking shape

Brian Chu

Even as there is no resolution with the Iranian conflict yet, signs of big changes are emerging. These relate to the global energy market, diplomatic relations between traditional allies, and how countries will manage their supply chain.

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Commodities

The Great Energy Pivot: Rewriting the Oil Trade [Part III]

Critical Minerals have been touted for their supply concentration; but rarely is oil put in that category. Yet three countries control almost half of the world’s supply.

Beyond the fog of war, big changes are taking shape

Brian Chu

The Great Energy Pivot: Rewriting the Oil Trade [Part II]

Supply chain dominance of critical minerals has been used to push national agendas. What happens if energy is used as the next major coercive tool?

Part I: The Great Energy Pivot: How the Rules of Global Oil and Gas Are Being Rewritten

The old energy order is fracturing. Decades of balance between buyers and sellers is unravelling — and the suppliers are winning.

China Capitulation Part 9 – Rethinking a regime’s control over its people

Brian Chu

Iran has shown that a regime can suppress its people but still end up more vulnerable than ever. This could be a warning to the Chinese Communist Party elites that a massive army don’t ensure their safety.

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Technology

The Cockroaches are Multiplying

Six weeks ago, I asked whether private credit was the new subprime. Things are only looking worse since.

The Chokepoint Always Wins

Markets continue to price this as a temporary disruption. But the idea that Iran will simply hand Hormuz back for free looks naïve in the gaze of history.

AI’s Next Bottleneck is Plumbing

Everyone’s watching chips and power. Almost no one is watching the optical shifts that insiders are scrambling to solve. That’s about to change.

Death of the Petrodollar

Iran is offering Hormuz passage in exchange for yuan settlement. This could be the wedge that splits the world’s financial system in two.

An Era of ‘Cheap War’

Drones are reshaping warfare. And the economics of shooting them down don’t add up. Here’s one company that could change that.

Small Caps

Everything (might) be fine

The ASX has bounced, the war drones on, and private credit lurks. Lachlann runs the Rumsfeld matrix on markets. And it turns out, we might be just fine.

Silver, Juice and Power

Iran is taxing oil in yuan and crypto, but how many ounces of silver do I need to buy a pound of frozen OJ? What a weird commodity pair reveals about money, energy and power.

This oil war is triggering an avalanche of lithium demand

Iran’s war is squeezing oil, supercharging EV demand and quietly tightening lithium. Lachlann shows how four ASI lithium plays are positioned for this second‑order shock.

Don’t Watch The Strait, Read This

Iran’s oil shock is squeezing markets while AI devours electricity, pushing capital toward one overlooked winner: baseload nuclear and uranium plays

Here we go

Trump’s Iran ultimatum expires at our ASX market open tomorrow. Here’s why the energy trade is only getting started. Think phases and always be prepared.

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Market Analysis

Green Light Still Pending

Markets surged this week on news of a ceasefire in Iran. But a strict reading of the trading model suggests caution, with short-term risks still pointing to potential downside despite strong price action.

Trump Whiplash Sends Markets Spinning Again

In today’s Closing Bell, we analyse a wide range of viewer-requested stocks, from coal and fertilisers to lithium, rare earths, drones, and pharma.

Major Support Under Siege in US Markets

US markets are sitting on a knife-edge after another sharp sell-off. The risk is that we’re approaching the point where selling overwhelms buyers, and the correction accelerates.

Triple Witching Could Trigger Sell-Off

Markets are starting to show real signs of stress. The setup is there for increased volatility in the weeks ahead.

The Level That Could Send Stocks Tumbling

Oil prices are pushing toward US$100, bonds and stocks are selling off together, and large strategies like risk-parity funds could amplify a downturn if key levels break.

Macro

In 2026, stay calm and buy what’s out-of-favour

Greg Canavan

I know of no other way to protect yourself against unknowns like this than to buy out-of-favour companies at attractive prices.

Forget China (at your peril)

While we’ve been navel-gazing, China has been quietly reshaping global trade, flooding markets, and luring back the very investors who fled years before.

AI is the Bubble. Taiwan is the Pin

There’s another major risk that people seem to have forgotten about, and this week, Australia’s intelligence community is making sure we’re paying attention

The Quiet Opportunity in Australian Beef

Australian lean beef has climbed to multi-year highs, while share prices remain muted. That sounds like an opportunity to me.

When Washington Plays Beijing: America’s New State Capitalism