Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

America’s bond market is fretting about a recession after a growth boom. Australia skipped the boom and went straight to the slowdown, thanks largely to Canberra’s spending spree.

The Real AI Threat: China

Jim Rickards

It’s past time to look beyond the AI hype. The stock valuations of the leading hyperscalers and frontier AI modeling companies are almost certainly in bubble territory. But the market will sort that out in time.

Trump and Xi Buy Two More Months

Trump and Xi just bought themselves two more months of peace on rare earths. History says truces crack.

Aussie Rates Set to Rise: Commodities Don’t Care

James Cooper

While the market watches the RBA, another data point released on Wednesday will be more important for Australia’s miners.

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Commodities

The Real AI Threat: China

Jim Rickards

Aussie Rates Set to Rise: Commodities Don’t Care

James Cooper

While the market watches the RBA, another data point released on Wednesday will be more important for Australia’s miners.

The Rare Earth Trade: Why we Took Profits in 2025

James Cooper

As rare earths stocks enter the stratosphere, is now the time to look at the fundamentals and perhaps take some profits?

From Empty Stockpiles to Explosive Profits

Jim Rickards

One of the persistent debates surrounding the war with Iran concerns the amount of weapons the United States has launched, either in attacking Iran or defending U.S. bases against Iranian attacks.

113 kilometres of dirt between two WA gold towns

Brian Chu

A chance encounter on a trip to Meekatharra revealed to me what a company’s production cost doesn’t show you. It also showed me a lot about the country’s bureaucracy.

Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

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Technology

Mind the Gap — Part 2.

Part 2 of Charlie’s look at AI and work. Electricity’s biggest gains came when factories changed around it. AI presents a similar challenge today. And an opportunity for investors.

Mind the Gap — Part 1.

Orwell worried about what machines would take from us. Investors are betting on what they will deliver. Between those two questions sits a gap that prior tech revolutions struggled to cross.

Maybe Apple is Right

AI is becoming more capable. But that doesn’t guarantee returns for those building ever-taller towers. New research points to a future where intelligence runs locally — and Apple could be well placed.

The Black Box Problem

The AI labs have asked to be slowed down. Critics call it regulatory capture. The truth is somewhere in between. A black box forming inside the newest models is why this matters now.

‘Something Has Gone Completely Wrong’ Pt. 2

Part two of Charlie’s exploration of privacy and security in the AI era. This time, OpenAI is in the crosshairs.

Small Caps

The recession they made us have

America’s bond market is fretting about a recession after a growth boom. Australia skipped the boom and went straight to the slowdown, thanks largely to Canberra’s spending spree.

Trump and Xi Buy Two More Months

Trump and Xi just bought themselves two more months of peace on rare earths. History says truces crack.

Magnets on the Menu

Elon Musk dines with Xi this week, and a Chinese firm reportedly makes all his robots’ muscles. I think the biggest winners from this boom missed the guest list.

Always have an army

I’d prefer we live in a utopia that doesn’t need 10 million Optimus robots a year to ensure my physical safety and wellbeing. Well, at least there’s still a small window to invest.

China’s New Rare Earths Move

Trump and Xi meet Thursday. The market’s eyes are on bonds, oil and rates. Meanwhile a Chinese state group is circling a shareholder sitting on the register of America’s own rare earths champion.

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Market Analysis

Global Bond Rout Puts the ASX on the Edge

Charlie and Murray examine the synchronised rise in global yields, the growing competition for capital between governments and the AI investment boom, and the key levels that could determine whether the ASX stabilises or suffers another sharp leg lower.

Is It Time to Go Fishing?

With US bond yields rising and the 10-year yield reaching a level last seen in 2007, Charlie and I step back to examine the 40-year cycle in interest rates and what bear flattening of the yield curve has meant for stocks.

Rising Yields and Roaring Commodities Rattle Markets

In this week’s The Closing Bell, Murray examines how the Iran war, rising Japanese interest rates and the threat of a powerful El Niño could be feeding a perfect storm for markets.

Rising Yields, Hot Uranium Stocks and Your Picks

Four viewer picks: a speculative data centre technology play, a vertically integrated water services provider, a brownfields gold miner and a uranium miner.

The Yellow BRIC Road Pt.2

Part 2 in my look at why BRICS looks to be embracing gold as its reserve of choice.

Macro

Beijing Puts Away the Bazooka

Expectations of a stimulus bazooka from China have again been pushed back. But their latest plan does point to a list of metals that should be in your portfolio.

Let Her Rip

Two years ago, Trump’s economic whisperer co-wrote a paper accusing party politics of running stimulus into an election. This week, Treasury reached for the exact tool he described. The same paper warns what’s next.

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump

The pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of a key meeting with Xi next week. What could this mean for our markets.

What Does China Know That We Don’t?