Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

A bubble in US semiconductors doesn’t mean everything blows up. Greg Canavan explains why it’s a market of stocks, not a stock market, and where Aussie capital is moving.

Part I – Navigating the Tricks of Uranium Investing

Spot uranium has consolidated above US$80/lb, and term contracts are signing higher still. So why isn’t new supply showing up?

Funding an AI Promise

The biggest AI listings want you to fund a promise and wait a decade. The smart money is in the dull, profitable companies where the AI earns its keep

The mere threat of One Nation will be enough

Nick Hubble

The marginal revolution upended the science of economics 150 years ago. But it has the power to revolutionise your understanding of politics today.

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Part I – Navigating the Tricks of Uranium Investing

Spot uranium has consolidated above US$80/lb, and term contracts are signing higher still. So why isn’t new supply showing up?

The mere threat of One Nation will be enough

Nick Hubble

The marginal revolution upended the science of economics 150 years ago. But it has the power to revolutionise your understanding of politics today.

Part II: As Empires Crumble… Precious Metals Reign

Trump has used US Bankruptcy Laws to his advantage several times on his road to making billions. So, should US debt holders be concerned? That’s what James Cooper explores in today’s edition of Mining Memo.

Part I: As Empires Crumble… Precious Metals Reign

Lessons from the last gold bubble: How to capitalise on better-run miners

Brian Chu

You might wonder if the bull market is over with this recent selloff. However, a recovery may be coming. With management learning from past mistakes, these companies are well-positioned to deliver superior returns…

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Technology

Funding an AI Promise

The biggest AI listings want you to fund a promise and wait a decade. The smart money is in the dull, profitable companies where the AI earns its keep

The Great AI Loss Leader

The Hyperscalers are betting trillions that AI will restore their golden cashflow era. The economics underneath it are far weaker than the share prices suggest.

Era of the Mega-IPO

With more massive IPOs expected from the AI trade I take a look at history to see what it has to say about our market in the mega-IPO era.

AI Built on Borrowed Money

The AI build is running on borrowed money, and on Tuesday, the markets noticed. The chip-wreck was a reminder that the builders carry the debt and the risk.

What Elon Knows

A US perspective on where investors should be looking if they want to find the next space race.

Small Caps

Remember: It’s a market of stocks

A bubble in US semiconductors doesn’t mean everything blows up. Greg Canavan explains why it’s a market of stocks, not a stock market, and where Aussie capital is moving.

It’s the chip machines, stupid!

A niche fight over Dutch chip machines reveals who really controls AI, war‑fighting tech and future prosperity — and why critical minerals investors can’t afford to ignore it.

Why a Boring Market Might Be Your Friend

Oil down, stocks up, ASX shuffles sideways. While Wall Street sprints off into the distance, our sleepy market might be the safer place to stand when the rally finally cracks.

How to invest in shares during an Australian property crash

Canberra’s housing tax torpedo just turned my smart exit from property‑exposed small caps into a genius move. Meanwhile: your portfolio is now a prediction market-style bet on who wins the next election.

US Government…Meet the AI Bond Market

Bond market giants like BlackRock, Vanguard and PIMCO quietly vetoed Trump’s Fed Chair pick, and now five tech companies are issuing debt that investors trust more than US government bonds.

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Market Analysis

Nobody’s Buying

Our major cities are reporting the worst auction weekend since the depths of COVID. The ASX will feel it next.

Commodities Hammered

Murray Dawes

The ASX remains frustratingly rangebound as tax-loss selling hammers underperformers and cracks begin appearing elsewhere, highlighted by Judo Capital’s 40% collapse.

US Dollar Ready to Explode

Murray Dawes

The US Dollar Index is testing a major technical level that could have significant implications for gold, silver, Bitcoin and commodities.

Don’t Chase the Rocket Pt. 2

Part 2 of Charlie’s view on some durable themes that exist outside of the current market hype-cycle.

Gold falls as uranium nears a buy zone

Murray Dawes

This week, Lachlan Tierney joins Murray to discuss US stocks, vulnerable financials, falling gold and oil, and whether uranium stocks are starting to set up a new buying opportunity.

Macro

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump

The pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of a key meeting with Xi next week. What could this mean for our markets.

What Does China Know That We Don’t?

China’s oil hoarding may be a signal for a longer game than the West expects.

Australia’s Vibecession

The ASX is diverging from the optimism we’re seeing in US markets. What’s the driving force, and what can we do about it?

If You’re Confused, So Is Everyone Else