Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

Aussies are fleeing volatile fuel prices for Chinese EV’s. But the promise of independence runs on a supply chain that leads straight to Beijing. For now.

Rise or fall? Understanding the relationship between the gold price, war and inflation

Brian Chu

Confused about why gold is falling instead of rising while there’s a war between US, Israel and Iran? Read this to unpack the dynamics of gold, war and inflation, and the missing crucial component to steer gold’s rise or fall.

Don’t Sleep on ‘Boring’ Tech

Paul Dichiera

The strongest AI-backed companies hide in the market’s dullest corners. They’re businesses too boring to disrupt. Think Hotel booking, accounts and payroll, freight management.

The World Is Changing — And So Should Your Portfolio

James Cooper

Global power is shifting, and with it the rules of investing. Here’s what the history books say comes next.

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Commodities

The Great Race Just Docked in Melbourne

Aussies are fleeing volatile fuel prices for Chinese EV’s. But the promise of independence runs on a supply chain that leads straight to Beijing. For now.

Rise or fall? Understanding the relationship between the gold price, war and inflation

Brian Chu

The World Is Changing — And So Should Your Portfolio

James Cooper

Global power is shifting, and with it the rules of investing. Here’s what the history books say comes next.

Another inflationary era at the worst possible time

Nick Hubble

Stocks go up in the long run. But in the long run we are all dead. What happens in the medium term is what matters. And it’s very mixed.

ASX Capital Flight: Hedging into Markets with International Exposure

James Cooper

ASX Capital Flight: Hedging into Markets with International Exposure to reduce Post Budget Risk

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Technology

A New AI Leader is Emerging

It’s been a busy quarter for AI as the biggest names vie for our attention while the biggest Aussie data centres fight for the latest mega-deal from Anthropic.

Volatility Is the New Norm

Tonight’s US data dump lands at a market already looking stretched by hype and rattled by fresh strikes on Iran. Here’s one tool to navigate it.

The AI code smoky

Digital infrastructure follows the same trend: Research, then scale. The internet did it. The cloud did it. AI is doing it now. As Paul Dichiera explains, the same monetisation question that hung over the last two booms is now dangling over this one. And the answer is the same too.

AI Giveth, AI Taketh Away

Australia’s unemployment rate jumped to 4.5% in April. While WiseTech and Meta are the latest to cut thousands of jobs. The common thread? Artificial intelligence.

Feels Like Everyone Has an Algorithm Except You

Trump’s latest financial disclosures reveal thousands of stock trades this quarter. The volume points to algorithmic trading. Now we’re offering you your own version to meet this moment.

Small Caps

Don’t Sleep on ‘Boring’ Tech

Paul Dichiera

The strongest AI-backed companies hide in the market’s dullest corners. They’re businesses too boring to disrupt. Think Hotel booking, accounts and payroll, freight management.

Sell in May? These Aren’t the Losses You’re Looking For

The federal budget’s CGT changes were meant to punish risk capital. Instead, they may have forced open a rare buying window in beaten-up ASX small caps and commodities.

Why won’t the ASX 200 move?

The ASX 200 looks dead on the surface, but a powerful commodities boom is quietly building underneath — and it could drag small caps into a surprise second‑half revival.

I Trust This Strategy More Than Any Budget (or Politician)

Between now and 2027, Canberra’s tax grab will warp tactics, not strategy. Lachlann Tierney shows you how to ignore the headlines and go back to investment first principles. Here’s what that looks like.

This is ATLAS

85% of ASX trading is machine‑driven. Learn how Charlie Ormond’s ATLAS engine aims to put that same firepower on your side.

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Market Analysis

Passive Investing’s Reckoning Approaches

While the ASX 200 appears relatively stable, much of that strength is coming from the banks, BHP and Rio, while many former market favourites are suffering heavy declines beneath the surface.

Markets Whipsaw as Yields Surge

Charlie and Murray discuss the jump in bond yields around the world, the upcoming CGT changes, and the whipsaw in the ASX 200 this week.

The Budget from Hell

In this week’s Closing Bell, Murray and Charlie break down the budget fallout, the opportunities that may emerge during the transition period, and why this remains a brutal but fascinating stock picker’s market.

Markets Brace for Tuesday Shock

Murray and Charlie look at whether fears surrounding next week’s budget and potential capital gains tax changes are beginning to trigger selling pressure across the market.

Big Tech Just Broke the Tape

US stocks remain bulletproof while the ASX lags. Murray and Charlie look at a software bounce-back trade and run the ruler over a bunch of viewer-suggested stocks.

Macro

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump

The pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of a key meeting with Xi next week. What could this mean for our markets.

What Does China Know That We Don’t?

China’s oil hoarding may be a signal for a longer game than the West expects.

Australia’s Vibecession

The ASX is diverging from the optimism we’re seeing in US markets. What’s the driving force, and what can we do about it?

If You’re Confused, So Is Everyone Else