Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

The Nasdaq fell more than 6% overnight, yet the ASX 200 is holding up as investors pile into banks and defensives. That rotation masks the damage in smaller stocks.

Revisiting Iron Ore: Is it Really Doomed?

FMG shares are down over 30% in 2026, or about 50% since their peak in January 2024. Revisiting one of the market’s former darlings.

High Water Mark

Come January, Democrats will control both houses of Congress. The change in law may be modest, but the shift in power appears to be a turning point for the Trump era and possibly for markets.

A landslide victory that shook the country, but not the system

Brian Chu

The resounding victory for the Democratic Party in the midterm elections may have given the Trump administration the setback many hoped for. The people have cast the vote, but does that solve the problems in the system?

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Commodities

Revisiting Iron Ore: Is it Really Doomed?

FMG shares are down over 30% in 2026, or about 50% since their peak in January 2024. Revisiting one of the market’s former darlings.

A landslide victory that shook the country, but not the system

Brian Chu

Saving the West: A Marshall Plan for Minerals (Part II)

Every funding deal, supply agreement, and construction contract over the coming months could draw more attention to the companies actually doing the building rather than to the mining itself.

The Russian deal with American consequences

Jim Rickards

The midterm elections have captured the nation’s attention. But the situation in Ukraine deserves just as much scrutiny. It gets more complicated by the day.

Why Floor Prices Give Aussie Miners a Crucial Advantage

Rare earths company Lynas announced stellar revenue numbers in last week’s quarterly results. And one detail behind the numbers stood out. Floor price agreements are becoming more common, driven by the US desire to increase non-China supply of key critical minerals.

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Technology

High Water Mark

Come January, Democrats will control both houses of Congress. The change in law may be modest, but the shift in power appears to be a turning point for the Trump era and possibly for markets.

AI Speaks DNA Now

Some of the most exciting work in AI looks nothing like ChatGPT. Let’s peek into the future with new AI paradigms, including some that only speak DNA and design novel viruses and drugs.

Peek Behind the Curtain

Small caps have copped a beating this year, but money is flowing back into one beaten-down corner of the market. Here’s what ATLAS is observing, before the headlines catch up

Rogue AI’s Day at the Zoo

Researchers made contact with a rogue fleet of Chinese AI that was on a quest to find a zoo gate. Charlie looks at what this strange episode tells us about AI let loose on the open web, and why you need AI on your side.

The 100-year bond and the two-year chip

AI is a bubble for the simple reason that every transformational technology creates one. That also means the tools are too good to ignore. Here’s how he holds both ideas at once.

Small Caps

A Roadmap for ASX Small Caps Post-Budget, Pre-Election

Small-cap fund managers are nursing heavy losses, and Jim Chalmers’ tax changes are making it worse. Here’s why I’m lowering my sights and clipping winners earlier.

Carry It Like Makybe

The Melbourne Cup is a handicap, and right now Canberra is the handicapper. Rates and tax keep adding lead to investors’ saddlebags. So how do you carry the weight?

Two Races, One Tuesday

Copper is a whisker off its record and uranium contracts just hit an all-time high. So why are ASX miners priced like rank outsiders heading into Tuesday’s big race?

Lucky country’s luck is wearing thin

Iron ore just hit a two-year low as China’s property slump deepens. A nasty shock could be coming for Australia’s big miners, and so could a buying window.

Anthropic’s Bold Sci-Fi Play

The company behind Claude wants a trillion-dollar listing, and warns its AI could try to resist shutdown. Meanwhile, Australia’s new tax rules reward nimble investors. Here’s how to stay ahead.

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Market Analysis

Keep the Flak Jacket On

The Nasdaq fell more than 6% overnight, yet the ASX 200 is holding up as investors pile into banks and defensives. That rotation masks the damage in smaller stocks.

Good Earnings Bad Reactions

With the Nasdaq threatening a weekly downtrend, oil surging towards US$120, and money flooding into bonds, the risk of a deeper correction is rising.

Market Capitulation: Is Something Breaking?

Panic selling is sweeping through ASX small and mid-cap stocks as the AI trade unwinds and global financial stress intensifies.

When the Blood on the Street is Yours

In today’s Closing Bell, Murray and Charlie discuss the psychology of investing during a market sell-off, why position sizing matters more than predictions, and whether the long-term outlook for critical minerals remains intact.

What just happened?

Greg Canavan

On the surface, all was calm. The ASX200 finished flat on the day. The ASX100 closed up 0.14%. And the broader ASX300 was down just 0.07%.

Macro

Dead, Dying, Gone

Big money is wading back into bonds, betting today’s yields are an aberration. But 60/40 depends on a world COVID left behind.

Beijing Puts Away the Bazooka

Expectations of a stimulus bazooka from China have again been pushed back. But their latest plan does point to a list of metals that should be in your portfolio.

Let Her Rip

Two years ago, Trump’s economic whisperer co-wrote a paper accusing party politics of running stimulus into an election. This week, Treasury reached for the exact tool he described. The same paper warns what’s next.

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump