Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

Five big banks tore up their rate forecasts in two days. A hike is back on, so the best ASX small caps will need an offshore tailwind.

The Australian Nightmare: Peak Iron Ore

China’s steel engine is sputtering with ramifications for Australia’s big three miners. But behind this shift, an opportunity is emerging in some well-placed junior miners.

The Yellow BRIC Road Pt.2

Part 2 in my look at why BRICS looks to be embracing gold as its reserve of choice.

Nvidia has done it again, delivering another blockbuster result and keeping animal spirits alive. But the strength is spreading well beyond AI. Beaten-up SaaS stocks are bouncing back from the SaaSpocalypse, while uranium, zinc, copper, gold and silver are all attracting serious buying.

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Commodities

The Australian Nightmare: Peak Iron Ore

China’s steel engine is sputtering with ramifications for Australia’s big three miners. But behind this shift, an opportunity is emerging in some well-placed junior miners.

Diamonds: A Glimmer of Contrarian Opportunity

When De Beers launched one of the most iconic advertising campaigns ever, the legendary “A Diamond Is Forever” idea began. But is it ending?

Think Bessent failed? Let’s re-examine the calls for US$200 oil

Brian Chu

Shortly after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an increase in bond buyback limits, the bond yield bounced. Some commentators already concluded this move had failed. Today I examine this by comparing it to experts who predicted US$150-200 oil during the US-Iran conflict…

Gold deposits: They’re getting harder to mine and harder to find!

Gold deposits… They’re getting harder to mine and harder to find! Data from S&P Global shows that gold discoveries have fallen more than 70% over the past twenty years.

How Australia’s mortgage fraud scandal could blow up the banking system

Nick Hubble

Hidden beneath Australia’s housing bubble is a scandal so shocking it cannot be exposed. But the journalists and financial regulators are getting ever closer to the dangerous truth.

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Technology

Going Winchester

The new era of drone warfare is playing havoc with the West’s ability to defend itself. Now we’re running out of ammo.

Software’s Second Coming

In February, the market decided AI had made software obsolete and sold the sector down the river. Six months later, short sellers are cowering and reporting season is separating the genuinely disrupted from the merely unloved.

No War, No Peace

Trump has swapped bombs for a blockade. But the squeeze is again putting pressure on diesel, which bleeds through to Aussie miners’ bottom lines.

The Line Break

Key trendlines are breaking in some unloved sectors on the ASX. While the signals are all early, it’s worth updating your watchlists.

The Silicon Curtain

AI could be one of the factors that ultimately split the world into two rival blocs. Where does that leave us?

Small Caps

Rate Hikes Are Back, So Look Offshore

Five big banks tore up their rate forecasts in two days. A hike is back on, so the best ASX small caps will need an offshore tailwind.

The Debasement Trade: Watch China

The US is squeezing China through oil, and the gold price is moving. Lachlann Tierney explains the difference between the debasement trade and a debasement investment.

The roadmap under the hood

The roadmap I use to guide my paid service recommendations, the two liquidity clocks behind it, and why it’s better to be early rather than agree with everyone else.

The debasement trade is back!

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to jawbone yields down and that play lasted about a day. Meanwhile, gold and Bitcoin had other ideas. Here’s why I think the debasement trade is back, and where it leads next.

Micro-caps: Look where others don’t!

The small end of the ASX has gone nowhere for ten months. Something shifted in the last fortnight, and most investors have not noticed it yet.

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Market Analysis

The Yellow BRIC Road Pt.2

Part 2 in my look at why BRICS looks to be embracing gold as its reserve of choice.

Nvidia Keeps the Party Going

Murray Dawes

The Yellow BRIC Road Pt.1

Two decades of BRICS doom-mongering delivered nothing. But the trading bloc now spans four continents, half the world’s population and 30 more nations want in. This two-part series looks at the upcoming meeting and what it could mean for ASX investors.

Two Software Recovery Plays

Murray Dawes

The battle between Washington and the bond market is heating up and the economic fallout from the war in Iran is beginning to surface. Murray looks at two US stocks that look ready to rumble.

ASX Wobbles as Tech and Uranium Come Alive

Murray Dawes

The ASX 200 took a step backwards this week as results season put the brakes on its recent rally. Weakness in the banks has raised the risk, potentially opening the door to a quick 4% correction.

Macro

Let Her Rip

Two years ago, Trump’s economic whisperer co-wrote a paper accusing party politics of running stimulus into an election. This week, Treasury reached for the exact tool he described. The same paper warns what’s next.

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump

The pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of a key meeting with Xi next week. What could this mean for our markets.

What Does China Know That We Don’t?

China’s oil hoarding may be a signal for a longer game than the West expects.

Australia’s Vibecession