Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

America stands accused of rigging the World Cup. Meanwhile the mega-IPOs keep coming, the Fed has gone quiet, and the skyscraper index hints at where this bull market sits.

Your Super is safe as houses…were…before the budget

Nick Hubble

Australian tax rates are so high that only tax efficient investments make sense. Be it Super, negative gearing or franking credits. But they won’t last.

Why the US market needs to go up (and what next)

Is the American financial empire crumbling? I’m not so sure this posse of unhinged savages knows how to lose. Regardless, have a think of what the next leg of the AI trade looks like.

The Vicuña District: sits alongside history’s greatest mining provinces

Some regions don’t just host a mine. They host a mining century. Here’s why the Vicuña District belongs in that conversation.

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Commodities

Your Super is safe as houses…were…before the budget

Nick Hubble

Australian tax rates are so high that only tax efficient investments make sense. Be it Super, negative gearing or franking credits. But they won’t last.

The Vicuña District: sits alongside history’s greatest mining provinces

Some regions don’t just host a mine. They host a mining century. Here’s why the Vicuña District belongs in that conversation.

Part II – Navigating the Tricks of Uranium Investing

Spot uranium has consolidated above US$80/lb, and term contracts are signing higher still. So why isn’t new supply showing up?

Gold’s selloff in three acts: Why the next act could surprise you

Brian Chu

Gold and silver were peaking five months ago with investors thinking the sky’s the limit. Then came the flash crash, the Iranian conflict and a grinding correction that brought them back to earth. The next act could surprise you… read on!

Part I – Navigating the Tricks of Uranium Investing

Spot uranium has consolidated above US$80/lb, and term contracts are signing higher still. So why isn’t new supply showing up?

Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

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Technology

Musk Looks Up. China Looks Down

SpaceX wants a million AI satellites in orbit. China just switched on a wind-powered data centre under the sea. Both are chasing the same prize: cheap power and free cooling for the AI buildout.

Funding an AI Promise

Paul Dichiera

The biggest AI listings want you to fund a promise and wait a decade. The smart money is in the dull, profitable companies where the AI earns its keep

The Great AI Loss Leader

The Hyperscalers are betting trillions that AI will restore their golden cashflow era. The economics underneath it are far weaker than the share prices suggest.

Era of the Mega-IPO

With more massive IPOs expected from the AI trade I take a look at history to see what it has to say about our market in the mega-IPO era.

AI Built on Borrowed Money

Paul Dichiera

The AI build is running on borrowed money, and on Tuesday, the markets noticed. The chip-wreck was a reminder that the builders carry the debt and the risk.

Small Caps

IPO Fever: America Builds Its Tallest Tower Yet

America stands accused of rigging the World Cup. Meanwhile the mega-IPOs keep coming, the Fed has gone quiet, and the skyscraper index hints at where this bull market sits.

Why the US market needs to go up (and what next)

Is the American financial empire crumbling? I’m not so sure this posse of unhinged savages knows how to lose. Regardless, have a think of what the next leg of the AI trade looks like.

Remember: It’s a market of stocks

Paul Dichiera

A bubble in US semiconductors doesn’t mean everything blows up. Greg Canavan explains why it’s a market of stocks, not a stock market, and where Aussie capital is moving.

It’s the chip machines, stupid!

A niche fight over Dutch chip machines reveals who really controls AI, war‑fighting tech and future prosperity — and why critical minerals investors can’t afford to ignore it.

Why a Boring Market Might Be Your Friend

Oil down, stocks up, ASX shuffles sideways. While Wall Street sprints off into the distance, our sleepy market might be the safer place to stand when the rally finally cracks.

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Market Analysis

The Empire Steps Back

On the eve of America’s 250th birthday, Charlie considers what the latest signals from the administration mean for us.

Viewer Stock Picks

Murray Dawes

There is a wide variety of interesting stocks that Charlie and I look at today. There is a tungsten producer, a back pain management tech company, a laser firm, and a piddler sitting on a massive, stranded gas asset.

Nobody’s Buying

Our major cities are reporting the worst auction weekend since the depths of COVID. The ASX will feel it next.

Commodities Hammered

Murray Dawes

The ASX remains frustratingly rangebound as tax-loss selling hammers underperformers and cracks begin appearing elsewhere, highlighted by Judo Capital’s 40% collapse.

US Dollar Ready to Explode

Murray Dawes

The US Dollar Index is testing a major technical level that could have significant implications for gold, silver, Bitcoin and commodities.

Macro

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump

The pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of a key meeting with Xi next week. What could this mean for our markets.

What Does China Know That We Don’t?

China’s oil hoarding may be a signal for a longer game than the West expects.

Australia’s Vibecession

The ASX is diverging from the optimism we’re seeing in US markets. What’s the driving force, and what can we do about it?

If You’re Confused, So Is Everyone Else