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Is It Time to Go Fishing?

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The Real AI Threat: China

It’s past time to look beyond the AI hype. The stock valuations of the leading hyperscalers and frontier AI modeling companies are almost certainly in bubble territory. But the market will sort that out in time.

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Commodities

The Real AI Threat: China

It’s past time to look beyond the AI hype. The stock valuations of the leading hyperscalers and frontier AI modeling companies are almost certainly in bubble territory. But the market will sort that out in time.

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Technology

Mind the Gap — Part 2.

Part 2 of Charlie’s look at AI and work. Electricity’s biggest gains came when factories changed around it. AI presents a similar challenge today. And an opportunity for investors.

Mind the Gap — Part 1.

Orwell worried about what machines would take from us. Investors are betting on what they will deliver. Between those two questions sits a gap that prior tech revolutions struggled to cross.

Maybe Apple is Right

AI is becoming more capable. But that doesn’t guarantee returns for those building ever-taller towers. New research points to a future where intelligence runs locally — and Apple could be well placed.

The Black Box Problem

The AI labs have asked to be slowed down. Critics call it regulatory capture. The truth is somewhere in between. A black box forming inside the newest models is why this matters now.

Small Caps

Magnets on the Menu

Elon Musk dines with Xi this week, and a Chinese firm reportedly makes all his robots’ muscles. I think the biggest winners from this boom missed the guest list.

Always have an army

I’d prefer we live in a utopia that doesn’t need 10 million Optimus robots a year to ensure my physical safety and wellbeing. Well, at least there’s still a small window to invest.

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Market Analysis

Global Bond Rout Puts the ASX on the Edge

Charlie and Murray examine the synchronised rise in global yields, the growing competition for capital between governments and the AI investment boom, and the key levels that could determine whether the ASX stabilises or suffers another sharp leg lower.

Is It Time to Go Fishing?

With US bond yields rising and the 10-year yield reaching a level last seen in 2007, Charlie and I step back to examine the 40-year cycle in interest rates and what bear flattening of the yield curve has meant for stocks.

Macro

Let Her Rip

Two years ago, Trump’s economic whisperer co-wrote a paper accusing party politics of running stimulus into an election. This week, Treasury reached for the exact tool he described. The same paper warns what’s next.

Worst. Budget. Ever

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

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