Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

Labour eats up to half the cost of building a house in Australia. Elon just launched a car with no steering wheel. The robots are coming for the rest.

The Lassonde Curve: How it Aligns Your Investment Timing

Most investors buy mining stocks at exactly the wrong times. There’s a better way. It’s called The Lassonde Curve, and it provides a basic framework for timing your mining investments. But like all good rules, you also need to know when to break them. Today is one of those times.

Beijing Puts Away the Bazooka

Expectations of a stimulus bazooka from China have again been pushed back. But their latest plan does point to a list of metals that should be in your portfolio.

Rising Yields, Hot Uranium Stocks and Your Picks

Four viewer picks: a speculative data centre technology play, a vertically integrated water services provider, a brownfields gold miner and a uranium miner.

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Commodities

The Lassonde Curve: How it Aligns Your Investment Timing

Combine Two Powerful Investment Forces into One – Part II

It’s time to combine two powerful investment forces into one… The hunt for yield, alongside the pursuit of real asset investments like commodities.

The ratio many gold investors missed in the August recovery… and why it could cost them dearly

Brian Chu

Gold stocks were the best performing asset class last month. The recovery sparked by the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve lulled many to think that the golden days are back. Are they right? Here’s a number that can help you…

Combine Two Powerful Investment Forces into One

It’s time to combine two powerful investment forces into one… The hunt for yield, alongside the pursuit of real asset investments like commodities.

The Australian Nightmare: Peak Iron Ore

China’s steel engine is sputtering with ramifications for Australia’s big three miners. But behind this shift, an opportunity is emerging in some well-placed junior miners.

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Technology

They Robbed the Bank and Only Took the Pens

In July, OpenAI’s AI agents broke out of their containment and collectively ran a nation-state-scale attack on another company. Here’s what the first autonomous AI organisation means for the cybersecurity trade.

Going Winchester

The new era of drone warfare is playing havoc with the West’s ability to defend itself. Now we’re running out of ammo.

Software’s Second Coming

In February, the market decided AI had made software obsolete and sold the sector down the river. Six months later, short sellers are cowering and reporting season is separating the genuinely disrupted from the merely unloved.

No War, No Peace

Trump has swapped bombs for a blockade. But the squeeze is again putting pressure on diesel, which bleeds through to Aussie miners’ bottom lines.

The Line Break

Key trendlines are breaking in some unloved sectors on the ASX. While the signals are all early, it’s worth updating your watchlists.

Small Caps

We Cost Too Much

Labour eats up to half the cost of building a house in Australia. Elon just launched a car with no steering wheel. The robots are coming for the rest.

Bonds are underwriting our robot future

Bonds can topple governments and pick Fed chairs. But the real story is who they are lending to now, and what that means for the rocks under our feet.

China Bowled Underarm, So America Rewrote The Rules

China spent twenty years building its minerals dominance inside the free market. Washington has finally worked out how, and it is rewriting the rulebook fast.

Rate Hikes Are Back, So Look Offshore

Five big banks tore up their rate forecasts in two days. A hike is back on, so the best ASX small caps will need an offshore tailwind.

The Debasement Trade: Watch China

The US is squeezing China through oil, and the gold price is moving. Lachlann Tierney explains the difference between the debasement trade and a debasement investment.

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Market Analysis

Rising Yields, Hot Uranium Stocks and Your Picks

Four viewer picks: a speculative data centre technology play, a vertically integrated water services provider, a brownfields gold miner and a uranium miner.

The Yellow BRIC Road Pt.2

Part 2 in my look at why BRICS looks to be embracing gold as its reserve of choice.

Nvidia Keeps the Party Going

Nvidia has done it again, delivering another blockbuster result and keeping animal spirits alive. But the strength is spreading well beyond AI. Beaten-up SaaS stocks are bouncing back from the SaaSpocalypse, while uranium, zinc, copper, gold and silver are all attracting serious buying.

The Yellow BRIC Road Pt.1

Two decades of BRICS doom-mongering delivered nothing. But the trading bloc now spans four continents, half the world’s population and 30 more nations want in. This two-part series looks at the upcoming meeting and what it could mean for ASX investors.

Two Software Recovery Plays

The battle between Washington and the bond market is heating up and the economic fallout from the war in Iran is beginning to surface. Murray looks at two US stocks that look ready to rumble.

Macro

Beijing Puts Away the Bazooka

Expectations of a stimulus bazooka from China have again been pushed back. But their latest plan does point to a list of metals that should be in your portfolio.

Let Her Rip

Two years ago, Trump’s economic whisperer co-wrote a paper accusing party politics of running stimulus into an election. This week, Treasury reached for the exact tool he described. The same paper warns what’s next.

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump

The pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of a key meeting with Xi next week. What could this mean for our markets.

What Does China Know That We Don’t?