Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

Iran is lashing out in the Strait of Hormuz as oil flows return to near prewar levels. I think that could set up a rally few people expect.

The M.A.D. Scramble

Forget bond yields, ignore oil prices, and don’t overthink the Middle East conflict. There’s only one battle that matters. The battle between challenger and incumbent. Two superpowers, battling it out for global supremacy. Both need certain key commodities we own. And whoever wins, we’re assuredly heading towards a M.A.D. world.

Firmus IPO: Who’s the exit liquidity?

Firmus is about to become the ASX’s second-largest float ever. Before you pile in, it’s worth asking a simple question. Who exactly is selling to you, and why now?

Red September, Green October?

Every ASX sector finished the past month in the red. Lachlann Tierney explains why September lived up to its reputation, and the three sectors he’s watching for small-cap opportunities.

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Commodities

The M.A.D. Scramble

Has AI Reset the Cycle?

The latest data from China came in. And the news was good. But in a way, it doesn’t really matter. Because there’s something far more powerful driving Australia’s miners right now. And some argue it just got an ‘AI Reset.’

The Ghost of the GFC: Yields Keep Rising

Bond yields are rising in the US, and that’s sending tremors through the global economy, including here in Australia. Today, we try to make sense of it.

De-dollarisation is happening, so why has the monetary system not collapsed yet?

Brian Chu

As the US national debt exceed US$40 trillion and the US-Israel-Iran conflict sent oil prices spiking, there is increasing speculation of a dollar collapse and the end of the petrodollar system. Today’s article shows you why now may not be the time…

Prepare for Escalation: After US Midterms, All Bets Are Off

Preparing for the inflection point in the market: the commodities set to move next

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Technology

The Reverse Centaur

The big AI labs have moved the race from chatbots to personal AI agents. But as tech critics warn, the same technology can make each of us the legs for a different kind of beast.

Mind the Gap — Part 2.

Part 2 of Charlie’s look at AI and work. Electricity’s biggest gains came when factories changed around it. AI presents a similar challenge today. And an opportunity for investors.

Mind the Gap — Part 1.

Orwell worried about what machines would take from us. Investors are betting on what they will deliver. Between those two questions sits a gap that prior tech revolutions struggled to cross.

Maybe Apple is Right

AI is becoming more capable. But that doesn’t guarantee returns for those building ever-taller towers. New research points to a future where intelligence runs locally — and Apple could be well placed.

The Black Box Problem

The AI labs have asked to be slowed down. Critics call it regulatory capture. The truth is somewhere in between. A black box forming inside the newest models is why this matters now.

Small Caps

Watch it Happen: US Market Rally to NYE

Iran is lashing out in the Strait of Hormuz as oil flows return to near prewar levels. I think that could set up a rally few people expect.

Firmus IPO: Who’s the exit liquidity?

Firmus is about to become the ASX’s second-largest float ever. Before you pile in, it’s worth asking a simple question. Who exactly is selling to you, and why now?

Red September, Green October?

Every ASX sector finished the past month in the red. Lachlann Tierney explains why September lived up to its reputation, and the three sectors he’s watching for small-cap opportunities.

The Crash Playbook for Small-Caps

The RBA’s rate rise stung, but the market shrugged it off. But a crash is inevitable (as it always is). Lachlann Tierney lays out what he’s looking for to weather the storm.

The recession they made us have

America’s bond market is fretting about a recession after a growth boom. Australia skipped the boom and went straight to the slowdown, thanks largely to Canberra’s spending spree.

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Market Analysis

Somewhere Over the Trading Range

A sideways market rewards investors who are willing to change their mind. What history’s greatest bear can teach you about a feverish market going nowhere.

Up 2,500%… Is This the Correction to Buy?

Bond yields continue to rise, and high-yield corporate bonds are coming under pressure. Meanwhile, US equities remain worryingly narrow, while Australian stocks have just suffered a sharp sell-off.

Global Bond Rout Puts the ASX on the Edge

Charlie and Murray examine the synchronised rise in global yields, the growing competition for capital between governments and the AI investment boom, and the key levels that could determine whether the ASX stabilises or suffers another sharp leg lower.

Is It Time to Go Fishing?

With US bond yields rising and the 10-year yield reaching a level last seen in 2007, Charlie and I step back to examine the 40-year cycle in interest rates and what bear flattening of the yield curve has meant for stocks.

Rising Yields and Roaring Commodities Rattle Markets

In this week’s The Closing Bell, Murray examines how the Iran war, rising Japanese interest rates and the threat of a powerful El Niño could be feeding a perfect storm for markets.

Macro

Beijing Puts Away the Bazooka

Expectations of a stimulus bazooka from China have again been pushed back. But their latest plan does point to a list of metals that should be in your portfolio.

Let Her Rip

Two years ago, Trump’s economic whisperer co-wrote a paper accusing party politics of running stimulus into an election. This week, Treasury reached for the exact tool he described. The same paper warns what’s next.

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump

The pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of a key meeting with Xi next week. What could this mean for our markets.

What Does China Know That We Don’t?