Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

The federal budget’s CGT changes were meant to punish risk capital. Instead, they may have forced open a rare buying window in beaten-up ASX small caps and commodities.

Another inflationary era at the worst possible time

Nick Hubble

Stocks go up in the long run. But in the long run we are all dead. What happens in the medium term is what matters. And it’s very mixed.

Why won’t the ASX 200 move?

The ASX 200 looks dead on the surface, but a powerful commodities boom is quietly building underneath — and it could drag small caps into a surprise second‑half revival.

ASX Capital Flight: Hedging into Markets with International Exposure

ASX Capital Flight: Hedging into Markets with International Exposure to reduce Post Budget Risk

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Another inflationary era at the worst possible time

Nick Hubble

Stocks go up in the long run. But in the long run we are all dead. What happens in the medium term is what matters. And it’s very mixed.

ASX Capital Flight: Hedging into Markets with International Exposure

ASX Capital Flight: Hedging into Markets with International Exposure to reduce Post Budget Risk

Tech’s Farewell Party and Preparing for the Rotation

Read on to find out how James is helping position his paid readership group over 2026 and beyond

Why fears of a global fuel crisis may be exaggerated

Brian Chu

Three months into the Iranian conflict have significantly impacted the global economy. The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has led to fears of an imminent oil crisis. However, the dynamics of the oil market reveals what many have missed…

What Happens to Your Money When Trading Empires Crumble

In this coming era, it won’t be the tech firms spending billions on Capex; it’ll be governments alongside the world’s largest miners and energy firms.

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Technology

A New AI Leader is Emerging

It’s been a busy quarter for AI as the biggest names vie for our attention while the biggest Aussie data centres fight for the latest mega-deal from Anthropic.

Volatility Is the New Norm

Tonight’s US data dump lands at a market already looking stretched by hype and rattled by fresh strikes on Iran. Here’s one tool to navigate it.

The AI code smoky

Digital infrastructure follows the same trend: Research, then scale. The internet did it. The cloud did it. AI is doing it now. As Paul Dichiera explains, the same monetisation question that hung over the last two booms is now dangling over this one. And the answer is the same too.

AI Giveth, AI Taketh Away

Australia’s unemployment rate jumped to 4.5% in April. While WiseTech and Meta are the latest to cut thousands of jobs. The common thread? Artificial intelligence.

Feels Like Everyone Has an Algorithm Except You

Trump’s latest financial disclosures reveal thousands of stock trades this quarter. The volume points to algorithmic trading. Now we’re offering you your own version to meet this moment.

Small Caps

Sell in May? These Aren’t the Losses You’re Looking For

The federal budget’s CGT changes were meant to punish risk capital. Instead, they may have forced open a rare buying window in beaten-up ASX small caps and commodities.

Why won’t the ASX 200 move?

The ASX 200 looks dead on the surface, but a powerful commodities boom is quietly building underneath — and it could drag small caps into a surprise second‑half revival.

I Trust This Strategy More Than Any Budget (or Politician)

Between now and 2027, Canberra’s tax grab will warp tactics, not strategy. Lachlann Tierney shows you how to ignore the headlines and go back to investment first principles. Here’s what that looks like.

This is ATLAS

85% of ASX trading is machine‑driven. Learn how Charlie Ormond’s ATLAS engine aims to put that same firepower on your side.

ASX energy good, Australia bad

Trump holds off and the ASX gets a weak 1% bounce. Is there hope for ASX stocks? Yes, but not if their projects are in Australia.

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Market Analysis

Passive Investing’s Reckoning Approaches

While the ASX 200 appears relatively stable, much of that strength is coming from the banks, BHP and Rio, while many former market favourites are suffering heavy declines beneath the surface.

Markets Whipsaw as Yields Surge

Charlie and Murray discuss the jump in bond yields around the world, the upcoming CGT changes, and the whipsaw in the ASX 200 this week.

The Budget from Hell

In this week’s Closing Bell, Murray and Charlie break down the budget fallout, the opportunities that may emerge during the transition period, and why this remains a brutal but fascinating stock picker’s market.

Markets Brace for Tuesday Shock

Murray and Charlie look at whether fears surrounding next week’s budget and potential capital gains tax changes are beginning to trigger selling pressure across the market.

Big Tech Just Broke the Tape

US stocks remain bulletproof while the ASX lags. Murray and Charlie look at a software bounce-back trade and run the ruler over a bunch of viewer-suggested stocks.

Macro

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump

The pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of a key meeting with Xi next week. What could this mean for our markets.

What Does China Know That We Don’t?

China’s oil hoarding may be a signal for a longer game than the West expects.

Australia’s Vibecession

The ASX is diverging from the optimism we’re seeing in US markets. What’s the driving force, and what can we do about it?

If You’re Confused, So Is Everyone Else