Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

China makes 98% of it, America makes none, and SpaceX cannot fly without it. I backed a micro-cap on this metal a year before the crowd arrived.

The Vicuña District: sits alongside history’s greatest mining provinces

Some regions don’t just host a mine. They host a mining century. Here’s why the Vicuña District belongs in that conversation.

China’s Shadowy Gold Move: Secrets of the Small Cap Rabbit Hole (Pt. 2)

Michael Howell thinks Beijing now controls the taps that drive the gold price. Here’s how that plays into how I go hunting for the secret sauce that drives big wins in small-caps and micro-caps.

Don’t make this expensive tax planning mistake: time travel

Nick Hubble

Tax law has replaced property prices as Australia’s favourite past time. But most of us are making a terrible mistake: using time travel to manage tax.

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The Vicuña District: sits alongside history’s greatest mining provinces

Some regions don’t just host a mine. They host a mining century. Here’s why the Vicuña District belongs in that conversation.

Don’t make this expensive tax planning mistake: time travel

Nick Hubble

Tax law has replaced property prices as Australia’s favourite past time. But most of us are making a terrible mistake: using time travel to manage tax.

Lithium’s Collapse is Starting to Feel Like an Opportunity

There’s a strange paradox in lithium right now. Prices are up; demand is up…lithium stocks? Decimated!

Own the Rocks, Not the Apps

Sovereign wealth funds, entire governments and the world’s biggest tech companies are all bidding for the same thing

THE CHINA CAPITULATION SERIES — PART 10 The War China Isn’t Winning

Brian Chu

The conflict between US and Iran persists, opening a new chokepoint that both sides are fighting over. Meanwhile, oil has spiked but not to levels many thought it would. China is a key reason, but not because of its resilience…

Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

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Technology

AI for Dummies

After many requests, here’s Charlie’s stab at how these machines think, connect ideas and remember. Explained in plain English.

Selling the Signal

Trading firms can now pay the President’s company for millisecond access to the President’s posts. Most companies have to make a product. This one just makes news.

Canberra’s Cover Charge

Albanese wants every large AI data centre to fund its own power. If the rules pass, the energy buildout becomes compulsory. The open question is whether the capital stays.

Data-struction

Paul Dichiera

Are datacentres next on the chopping block? The demand is real and already signed. The danger sits in the balance sheet, heres what headlines miss.

Musk Looks Up. China Looks Down

SpaceX wants a million AI satellites in orbit. China just switched on a wind-powered data centre under the sea. Both are chasing the same prize: cheap power and free cooling for the AI buildout.

Small Caps

The Metal That Melts In Your Hand: Secrets of the Small Cap Rabbit Hole (Pt. 3)

China makes 98% of it, America makes none, and SpaceX cannot fly without it. I backed a micro-cap on this metal a year before the crowd arrived.

China’s Shadowy Gold Move: Secrets of the Small Cap Rabbit Hole (Pt. 2)

Michael Howell thinks Beijing now controls the taps that drive the gold price. Here’s how that plays into how I go hunting for the secret sauce that drives big wins in small-caps and micro-caps.

Coldcard Hack: Secrets of the Small Cap Rabbit Hole (Pt. 1)

Someone rebuilt Bitcoin wallet keys on a laptop and emptied them in 40 minutes. The hack sent me looking for what an analyst’s edge actually is now.

Is The US Empire Crumbling?

After a month criss-crossing America, Lachlann delivers his verdict on the “crumbling empire” question, the AI debt trap ahead, and where the real opportunity lands.

The most insane billboard for AI…

A US$570 billion rout in SK Hynix has investors questioning AI returns. That money may eventually land in the ground, and unloved ASX resource plays could be waiting.

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Market Analysis

The Wrong Bubble Pt.2

In part one, I argued the AI build-out looks more like 2008 than 2000. Here is why the hyperscalers keep spending anyway — and the moment that could unwind it.

I wasn’t expecting THIS chart…

Murray Dawes

US bond yields are creeping back into dangerous territory, AI pessimism may have reached a short-term extreme, and the metals story continues to impress.

The Wrong Bubble Pt.1

I have put the AI boom in the same breath as the dot-com bubble before. Looking at how this build-out is actually financed, that comparison now looks too generous.

Groundhog Day

Markets once again wake to the same headlines. Each turn of the loop starts from a weaker position than the last. Winners may be the ones who simply ignore it.

The Hidden Bear Market

Murray Dawes

Despite the S&P/ASX 200 sitting only a few percent below its all-time high, the reality for many investors is dramatically different.

Macro

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump

The pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of a key meeting with Xi next week. What could this mean for our markets.

What Does China Know That We Don’t?

China’s oil hoarding may be a signal for a longer game than the West expects.

Australia’s Vibecession

The ASX is diverging from the optimism we’re seeing in US markets. What’s the driving force, and what can we do about it?

If You’re Confused, So Is Everyone Else