Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

AI is becoming more capable. But that doesn’t guarantee returns for those building ever-taller towers. New research points to a future where intelligence runs locally — and Apple could be well placed.

History repeats; don’t get caught on the Wrong Side

European and Canadian defence spending jumped almost 20% in 2025 alone. This is where the next commodity boom is quietly being built.

Is It Time to Go Fishing?

With US bond yields rising and the 10-year yield reaching a level last seen in 2007, Charlie and I step back to examine the 40-year cycle in interest rates and what bear flattening of the yield curve has meant for stocks.

The Black Box Problem

The AI labs have asked to be slowed down. Critics call it regulatory capture. The truth is somewhere in between. A black box forming inside the newest models is why this matters now.

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Commodities

History repeats; don’t get caught on the Wrong Side

European and Canadian defence spending jumped almost 20% in 2025 alone. This is where the next commodity boom is quietly being built.

Why the oil spike has not crashed the markets: Comparing 2026 with 2022

Brian Chu

As the conflict in the Middle East takes another alarming turn, concerns are rising over whether this could drive the global economy into a 1970s market shock. Before we go back 50 years, let’s compare today with four years ago…

All In: America Has Never Leaned This Hard on Stocks

The Nasdaq 100 trades near 34 times earnings. Households hold 48% of their wealth in stocks, a record. What happens to commodities when this unwinds?

Beijing Preps for Currency Wars

Jim Rickards

The fact that China has a large quantity of gold in its official reserve position is not news. China’s gold reserves have been rising substantially since 2009.

Gold’s Second Act Has Begun

As all eyes focus on the bond market, gold is starting to make its move. We’ve seen this story before. And if history repeats, gold’s second act could be about to begin.

Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

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Technology

Maybe Apple is Right

The Black Box Problem

The AI labs have asked to be slowed down. Critics call it regulatory capture. The truth is somewhere in between. A black box forming inside the newest models is why this matters now.

‘Something Has Gone Completely Wrong’ Pt. 2

Part two of Charlie’s exploration of privacy and security in the AI era. This time, OpenAI is in the crosshairs.

‘Something has Gone Completely Wrong’ Pt.1

In this two-part article, Charlie explores the implications of privacy and security in the AI era and a central company controlling that future.

They Robbed the Bank and Only Took the Pens

In July, OpenAI’s AI agents broke out of their containment and collectively ran a nation-state-scale attack on another company. Here’s what the first autonomous AI organisation means for the cybersecurity trade.

Small Caps

Gina and Elon = Robot magnet rock

In November 1952, one man flew low through a Pilbara gorge and noticed the walls were the wrong colour. His daughter is doing it again, with magnets.

Can the robot STILL pour my beer?

In 1961 a two tonne arm took the worst job in a New Jersey car plant. The money never went to the carmaker, and it won’t this time either.

What a trillionaire needs

Nobody can tell you what Elon Musk is worth on any given Tuesday. But his next moonshot needs something ASX dirt happens to hold rather a lot of.

Surprise! This is inevitable

My father bought Tesla at $16 a share. He also taught me that the future arrives before anyone believes it. A billion humanoid robots is next.

The Race is On

China could shut the rare earths tap on 10 November, maybe sooner. Beijing is squeezing its banks for cash while building the fastest robots on earth. Action’s on you US.

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Market Analysis

Is It Time to Go Fishing?

Rising Yields and Roaring Commodities Rattle Markets

In this week’s The Closing Bell, Murray examines how the Iran war, rising Japanese interest rates and the threat of a powerful El Niño could be feeding a perfect storm for markets.

Rising Yields, Hot Uranium Stocks and Your Picks

Four viewer picks: a speculative data centre technology play, a vertically integrated water services provider, a brownfields gold miner and a uranium miner.

The Yellow BRIC Road Pt.2

Part 2 in my look at why BRICS looks to be embracing gold as its reserve of choice.

Nvidia Keeps the Party Going

Nvidia has done it again, delivering another blockbuster result and keeping animal spirits alive. But the strength is spreading well beyond AI. Beaten-up SaaS stocks are bouncing back from the SaaSpocalypse, while uranium, zinc, copper, gold and silver are all attracting serious buying.

Macro

Beijing Puts Away the Bazooka

Expectations of a stimulus bazooka from China have again been pushed back. But their latest plan does point to a list of metals that should be in your portfolio.

Let Her Rip

Two years ago, Trump’s economic whisperer co-wrote a paper accusing party politics of running stimulus into an election. This week, Treasury reached for the exact tool he described. The same paper warns what’s next.

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump

The pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of a key meeting with Xi next week. What could this mean for our markets.

What Does China Know That We Don’t?