Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

Markets have just ripped higher, with the S&P 500 surging 15% in less than two weeks. But beneath the surface, things aren’t nearly as strong as they look.

The Great Energy Pivot: Rewriting the Oil Trade [Part IV]

In this final edition, we outline why controlling global oil could be the US’s last weapon in hanging onto its decades-long hegemony. Control the Oil. Control the World.

The Last Barrels

Australia’s fuel vulnerability just went from theoretical to very real overnight.

Returns so high you’ll lose your mind

Nick Hubble

The best investor I know just passed away. Her astonishing returns humiliated Germany’s proudest bankers. And boy did she let them know it! But how did she do it?

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The Great Energy Pivot: Rewriting the Oil Trade [Part IV]

In this final edition, we outline why controlling global oil could be the US’s last weapon in hanging onto its decades-long hegemony. Control the Oil. Control the World.

Returns so high you’ll lose your mind

Nick Hubble

The best investor I know just passed away. Her astonishing returns humiliated Germany’s proudest bankers. And boy did she let them know it! But how did she do it?

The Great Energy Pivot: Rewriting the Oil Trade [Part III]

Critical Minerals have been touted for their supply concentration; but rarely is oil put in that category. Yet three countries control almost half of the world’s supply.

Beyond the fog of war, big changes are taking shape

Brian Chu

Even as there is no resolution with the Iranian conflict yet, signs of big changes are emerging. These relate to the global energy market, diplomatic relations between traditional allies, and how countries will manage their supply chain.

The Great Energy Pivot: Rewriting the Oil Trade [Part II]

Supply chain dominance of critical minerals has been used to push national agendas. What happens if energy is used as the next major coercive tool?

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Technology

AI’s Next Bottleneck is Plumbing

Everyone’s watching chips and power. Almost no one is watching the optical shifts that insiders are scrambling to solve. That’s about to change.

An Era of ‘Cheap War’

Drones are reshaping warfare. And the economics of shooting them down don’t add up. Here’s one company that could change that.

Our Modern Interregnum (Pt. 4)

The final part of Charlie Ormond’s meditation on our modern era. Today explores three ways our current crisis could end, and a clear investible solution.

Our Modern Interregnum (Pt. 3)

Part 3 of Charlie Ormond’s meditation on our modern era. Today explores the hidden mechanism behind today’s supply shock.

Our Modern Interregnum (Pt. 2)

Part 2, In Charlie Ormond’s meditation on our modern era. Today, we look at the inevitable consequences of a system that spent four decades optimising financial structures while neglecting the material ledger.

Small Caps

Everything (might) be fine

The ASX has bounced, the war drones on, and private credit lurks. Lachlann runs the Rumsfeld matrix on markets. And it turns out, we might be just fine.

Silver, Juice and Power

Iran is taxing oil in yuan and crypto, but how many ounces of silver do I need to buy a pound of frozen OJ? What a weird commodity pair reveals about money, energy and power.

This oil war is triggering an avalanche of lithium demand

Iran’s war is squeezing oil, supercharging EV demand and quietly tightening lithium. Lachlann shows how four ASI lithium plays are positioned for this second‑order shock.

Don’t Watch The Strait, Read This

Iran’s oil shock is squeezing markets while AI devours electricity, pushing capital toward one overlooked winner: baseload nuclear and uranium plays

Here we go

Trump’s Iran ultimatum expires at our ASX market open tomorrow. Here’s why the energy trade is only getting started. Think phases and always be prepared.

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Market Analysis

The Pros Got Crushed… What That Means for You

Markets have just ripped higher, with the S&P 500 surging 15% in less than two weeks. But beneath the surface, things aren’t nearly as strong as they look.

Green Light Still Pending

Markets surged this week on news of a ceasefire in Iran. But a strict reading of the trading model suggests caution, with short-term risks still pointing to potential downside despite strong price action.

Trump Whiplash Sends Markets Spinning Again

In today’s Closing Bell, we analyse a wide range of viewer-requested stocks, from coal and fertilisers to lithium, rare earths, drones, and pharma.

Major Support Under Siege in US Markets

US markets are sitting on a knife-edge after another sharp sell-off. The risk is that we’re approaching the point where selling overwhelms buyers, and the correction accelerates.

Triple Witching Could Trigger Sell-Off

Markets are starting to show real signs of stress. The setup is there for increased volatility in the weeks ahead.

Macro

The Last Barrels

Australia’s fuel vulnerability just went from theoretical to very real overnight.

The Cockroaches are Multiplying

Six weeks ago, I asked whether private credit was the new subprime. Things are only looking worse since.

The Chokepoint Always Wins

Markets continue to price this as a temporary disruption. But the idea that Iran will simply hand Hormuz back for free looks naïve in the gaze of history.

Death of the Petrodollar

Iran is offering Hormuz passage in exchange for yuan settlement. This could be the wedge that splits the world’s financial system in two.

Hormuz Shock