Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

Canberra’s housing tax torpedo just turned my smart exit from property‑exposed small caps into a genius move. Meanwhile: your portfolio is now a prediction market-style bet on who wins the next election.

The Next Conflict: China and Taiwan

Will the Hormuz flare up again, or will an entirely new conflict emerge in this era of global instability?

US Government…Meet the AI Bond Market

Bond market giants like BlackRock, Vanguard and PIMCO quietly vetoed Trump’s Fed Chair pick, and now five tech companies are issuing debt that investors trust more than US government bonds.

Labor’s Next 7 Tax Raids and Where to Find Them

Nick Hubble

First they came for my Super. Then they came for my CGT discount. Then for my family trust. Then there was nobody wealthy left to speak out.

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Commodities

The Next Conflict: China and Taiwan

Will the Hormuz flare up again, or will an entirely new conflict emerge in this era of global instability?

Labor’s Next 7 Tax Raids and Where to Find Them

Nick Hubble

First they came for my Super. Then they came for my CGT discount. Then for my family trust. Then there was nobody wealthy left to speak out.

Party Time for Stocks… But the Inflation Risk Remains

Iran and the US reach a landmark agreement. Here is what it means for stocks and oil

The Worst Commodity of All

Former geologist, James Cooper, shines a light on the world’s most hated commodity

Gold breaks a new low for 2026 – Why buying now may be your best move

Brian Chu

In just five months, sentiment for gold and precious metals turned from euphoria to fear. While the Iranian conflict rages, market valuation has gone out of control. Will there be a smooth landing or a crash? Gold benefits either way…

Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

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Technology

Don’t Chase the Rocket Pt.1

A chip earnings miss and a hot jobs report just vaporised trillions from US stocks. Before you chase the SpaceX IPO, understand the trap the Fed has walked into — and why it sets up the next decade’s trade.

The Spy Who Hacked Me

The NSA is now using the world’s most powerful AI to break into foreign governments. Cybersecurity is a more durable theme than you think.

A New AI Leader is Emerging

It’s been a busy quarter for AI as the biggest names vie for our attention while the biggest Aussie data centres fight for the latest mega-deal from Anthropic.

Volatility Is the New Norm

Tonight’s US data dump lands at a market already looking stretched by hype and rattled by fresh strikes on Iran. Here’s one tool to navigate it.

The AI code smoky

Digital infrastructure follows the same trend: Research, then scale. The internet did it. The cloud did it. AI is doing it now. As Paul Dichiera explains, the same monetisation question that hung over the last two booms is now dangling over this one. And the answer is the same too.

Small Caps

How to invest in shares during an Australian property crash

US Government…Meet the AI Bond Market

Bond market giants like BlackRock, Vanguard and PIMCO quietly vetoed Trump’s Fed Chair pick, and now five tech companies are issuing debt that investors trust more than US government bonds.

Iran was never the main target

The Strait of Hormuz is set to re-open. Its part of a broader strategy to squeeze China. Could there be peace in Ukraine next? Consider the possibility.

But lithium ain’t one

Lithium’s been left for dead, but sentiment has turned. Lachlann Tierney shows you why this “specialty chemical” says it could be gearing up for one last explosive run.

Offense wins elections, defence wins markets

Australia’s economy is wheezing and the ASX defensives are running hot, but with US IPOs booming and commodity tailwinds building, the real action might be hunting bargains in beaten-down small-caps.

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Market Analysis

Don’t Chase the Rocket Pt. 2

Part 2 of Charlie’s view on some durable themes that exist outside of the current market hype-cycle.

Gold falls as uranium nears a buy zone

This week, Lachlan Tierney joins Murray to discuss US stocks, vulnerable financials, falling gold and oil, and whether uranium stocks are starting to set up a new buying opportunity.

Your Best Ideas Under the Microscope

The first Friday of the month means one thing: viewer stock picks. Charlie and Murray hand over stock selection duties to the audience and work through a huge list of companies spanning copper, gold, lithium, rare earths, graphite, mineral sands, biotech, platinum group metals, drone technology, advanced memory chips, and more.

Passive Investing’s Reckoning Approaches

While the ASX 200 appears relatively stable, much of that strength is coming from the banks, BHP and Rio, while many former market favourites are suffering heavy declines beneath the surface.

Markets Whipsaw as Yields Surge

Charlie and Murray discuss the jump in bond yields around the world, the upcoming CGT changes, and the whipsaw in the ASX 200 this week.

Macro

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump

The pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of a key meeting with Xi next week. What could this mean for our markets.

What Does China Know That We Don’t?

China’s oil hoarding may be a signal for a longer game than the West expects.

Australia’s Vibecession

The ASX is diverging from the optimism we’re seeing in US markets. What’s the driving force, and what can we do about it?

If You’re Confused, So Is Everyone Else