Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

A niche fight over Dutch chip machines reveals who really controls AI, war‑fighting tech and future prosperity — and why critical minerals investors can’t afford to ignore it.

Don’t panic yet: how Labor’s tax reform failure will leave you better off…if you convert to Islam

Nick Hubble

Albo’s tax reform will fail badly enough to give us something altogether better in the end. But what exactly?

Why a Boring Market Might Be Your Friend

Oil down, stocks up, ASX shuffles sideways. While Wall Street sprints off into the distance, our sleepy market might be the safer place to stand when the rally finally cracks.

Part 2: A Commodity Deep Dive; Uncovering the Stinkers vs Opportunities

In Part 2, James Cooper and Greg Canavan dig deeper into the commodities worth watching and the ones best left alone.

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Commodities

Don’t panic yet: how Labor’s tax reform failure will leave you better off…if you convert to Islam

Nick Hubble

Albo’s tax reform will fail badly enough to give us something altogether better in the end. But what exactly?

Part 2: A Commodity Deep Dive; Uncovering the Stinkers vs Opportunities

In Part 2, James Cooper and Greg Canavan dig deeper into the commodities worth watching and the ones best left alone.

Diamonds: A Glimmer of Contrarian Opportunity

When De Beers launched one of the most iconic advertising campaigns ever, the legendary “A Diamond Is Forever” idea began. But is it ending?

The US-Iran ceasefire – Hidden rifts widen inside the Islamic Republic

Brian Chu

Last week’s ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran has brought renewed criticisms that this merely delays the inevitable. Iran holds all the cards, and the US gave in. That conclusion misses Iran’s biggest weakness…

The Next Conflict: China and Taiwan

Will the Hormuz flare up again, or will an entirely new conflict emerge in this era of global instability?

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Technology

What Elon Knows

A US perspective on where investors should be looking if they want to find the next space race.

The Problem with Exponentials

The difference between AI that can reliably handle two-hour tasks and AI that can handle multi-week tasks isn’t just more capacity. It’s a fundamentally different economic reality.

Don’t Chase the Rocket Pt.1

A chip earnings miss and a hot jobs report just vaporised trillions from US stocks. Before you chase the SpaceX IPO, understand the trap the Fed has walked into — and why it sets up the next decade’s trade.

The Spy Who Hacked Me

The NSA is now using the world’s most powerful AI to break into foreign governments. Cybersecurity is a more durable theme than you think.

A New AI Leader is Emerging

It’s been a busy quarter for AI as the biggest names vie for our attention while the biggest Aussie data centres fight for the latest mega-deal from Anthropic.

Small Caps

It’s the chip machines, stupid!

A niche fight over Dutch chip machines reveals who really controls AI, war‑fighting tech and future prosperity — and why critical minerals investors can’t afford to ignore it.

Why a Boring Market Might Be Your Friend

Oil down, stocks up, ASX shuffles sideways. While Wall Street sprints off into the distance, our sleepy market might be the safer place to stand when the rally finally cracks.

How to invest in shares during an Australian property crash

Canberra’s housing tax torpedo just turned my smart exit from property‑exposed small caps into a genius move. Meanwhile: your portfolio is now a prediction market-style bet on who wins the next election.

US Government…Meet the AI Bond Market

Bond market giants like BlackRock, Vanguard and PIMCO quietly vetoed Trump’s Fed Chair pick, and now five tech companies are issuing debt that investors trust more than US government bonds.

Iran was never the main target

The Strait of Hormuz is set to re-open. Its part of a broader strategy to squeeze China. Could there be peace in Ukraine next? Consider the possibility.

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Market Analysis

US Dollar Ready to Explode

The US Dollar Index is testing a major technical level that could have significant implications for gold, silver, Bitcoin and commodities.

Don’t Chase the Rocket Pt. 2

Part 2 of Charlie’s view on some durable themes that exist outside of the current market hype-cycle.

Gold falls as uranium nears a buy zone

This week, Lachlan Tierney joins Murray to discuss US stocks, vulnerable financials, falling gold and oil, and whether uranium stocks are starting to set up a new buying opportunity.

Your Best Ideas Under the Microscope

The first Friday of the month means one thing: viewer stock picks. Charlie and Murray hand over stock selection duties to the audience and work through a huge list of companies spanning copper, gold, lithium, rare earths, graphite, mineral sands, biotech, platinum group metals, drone technology, advanced memory chips, and more.

Passive Investing’s Reckoning Approaches

While the ASX 200 appears relatively stable, much of that strength is coming from the banks, BHP and Rio, while many former market favourites are suffering heavy declines beneath the surface.

Macro

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump

The pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of a key meeting with Xi next week. What could this mean for our markets.

What Does China Know That We Don’t?

China’s oil hoarding may be a signal for a longer game than the West expects.

Australia’s Vibecession

The ASX is diverging from the optimism we’re seeing in US markets. What’s the driving force, and what can we do about it?

If You’re Confused, So Is Everyone Else