Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

In part one, I argued the AI build-out looks more like 2008 than 2000. Here is why the hyperscalers keep spending anyway — and the moment that could unwind it.

I wasn’t expecting THIS chart…

Murray Dawes

US bond yields are creeping back into dangerous territory, AI pessimism may have reached a short-term extreme, and the metals story continues to impress.

Own the Rocks, Not the Apps

Sovereign wealth funds, entire governments and the world’s biggest tech companies are all bidding for the same thing

The Wrong Bubble Pt.1

I have put the AI boom in the same breath as the dot-com bubble before. Looking at how this build-out is actually financed, that comparison now looks too generous.

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Own the Rocks, Not the Apps

Sovereign wealth funds, entire governments and the world’s biggest tech companies are all bidding for the same thing

THE CHINA CAPITULATION SERIES — PART 10 The War China Isn’t Winning

Brian Chu

The conflict between US and Iran persists, opening a new chokepoint that both sides are fighting over. Meanwhile, oil has spiked but not to levels many thought it would. China is a key reason, but not because of its resilience…

Will a US Stock Market Crash Kill the Commodity Boom?

The S&P 500 once fell nearly 48% in under two years. Gold, copper and oil still made money. Here is why that matters now.

When to punt on a tax reform reversal

Nick Hubble

Australians are suffering from a serious case of taxpayers’ remorse. But will the Labor government’s reforms really get reversed? And how could you profit?

Why Microsoft is restarting Three Mile Island

In December 2024, Beijing banned exports of three metals most people have never heard of. The fallout was immediate, brutal — and it was only the beginning of a much bigger scramble.

Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

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Technology

AI for Dummies

After many requests, here’s Charlie’s stab at how these machines think, connect ideas and remember. Explained in plain English.

Selling the Signal

Trading firms can now pay the President’s company for millisecond access to the President’s posts. Most companies have to make a product. This one just makes news.

Canberra’s Cover Charge

Albanese wants every large AI data centre to fund its own power. If the rules pass, the energy buildout becomes compulsory. The open question is whether the capital stays.

Data-struction

Paul Dichiera

Are datacentres next on the chopping block? The demand is real and already signed. The danger sits in the balance sheet, heres what headlines miss.

Musk Looks Up. China Looks Down

SpaceX wants a million AI satellites in orbit. China just switched on a wind-powered data centre under the sea. Both are chasing the same prize: cheap power and free cooling for the AI buildout.

Small Caps

Is The US Empire Crumbling?

After a month criss-crossing America, Lachlann delivers his verdict on the “crumbling empire” question, the AI debt trap ahead, and where the real opportunity lands.

The most insane billboard for AI…

A US$570 billion rout in SK Hynix has investors questioning AI returns. That money may eventually land in the ground, and unloved ASX resource plays could be waiting.

Shanghai Builds a Taller Tower

A Chinese memory chipmaker opened 472% higher and was briefly worth more than BHP and CBA combined. Market overexuberance may not be confined to America.

Gold Accumulation Begins

The ASX clawed back from a two-week low on Tuesday as investors bought the dip in gold miners. That dip-buying could mark a floor for ASX resource companies.

Is the blood letting over for ASX resources?

The ASX clawed back from a two-week low on Tuesday as investors bought the dip in gold miners. That dip-buying could mark a floor for ASX resource companies.

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Market Analysis

The Wrong Bubble Pt.2

In part one, I argued the AI build-out looks more like 2008 than 2000. Here is why the hyperscalers keep spending anyway — and the moment that could unwind it.

I wasn’t expecting THIS chart…

Murray Dawes

US bond yields are creeping back into dangerous territory, AI pessimism may have reached a short-term extreme, and the metals story continues to impress.

The Wrong Bubble Pt.1

I have put the AI boom in the same breath as the dot-com bubble before. Looking at how this build-out is actually financed, that comparison now looks too generous.

Groundhog Day

Markets once again wake to the same headlines. Each turn of the loop starts from a weaker position than the last. Winners may be the ones who simply ignore it.

The Hidden Bear Market

Murray Dawes

Despite the S&P/ASX 200 sitting only a few percent below its all-time high, the reality for many investors is dramatically different.

Macro

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump

The pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of a key meeting with Xi next week. What could this mean for our markets.

What Does China Know That We Don’t?

China’s oil hoarding may be a signal for a longer game than the West expects.

Australia’s Vibecession

The ASX is diverging from the optimism we’re seeing in US markets. What’s the driving force, and what can we do about it?

If You’re Confused, So Is Everyone Else