The United States: Reclaiming Its Mining Legacy

No doubt, we are in a phase of geopolitical spotlighting on minerals… Donald Trump, China, tariffs, ending the war in Ukraine, Greenland and Russia.

And this week, the $13 billion deal struck between the US and Australia focused on critical mineral investments.

2025 is the year of headlines.

Or more aptly:

The year for critical mineral headlines.

This group of obscure commodities has risen from the back of a geeky science textbook to the hottest thing across markets in 2025.

It has been the big-ticket item that has threaded together some of the biggest geopolitical headlines this year, like the war in Ukraine.

You might recall that earlier in the year, the US and Ukraine were discussing a minerals-for-military-aid deal that would hand Ukraine’s seemingly vast supplies of rare earths to the US economy.

Thus, solve America’s reliance on China for this critical group of commodities. In return, the US would hand Ukraine vast military aid.

But a win-win deal goes silent.

As it turns out, an old US Geological Survey report showed that Ukraine doesn’t actually hold much in the way of rare earths!

Excitement waned, and the deal was put on ice.

Ukraine’s vast supply of rare earths was far less than Trump or the media had imagined.

Nevertheless, it put another major spotlight on critical minerals in 2025.

As has China…

A country that has flirted with its ability to ‘weaponise’ the dominance of global critical mineral processing.

And that reached an inflection point last April after the Asian superpower hit back against US tariffs by imposing rare earth export restrictions.

Clearly, the US is concerned.

However, except for oil, most raw materials haven’t been on America’s national security agenda for a long time.

But as we’ve seen, that’s changing rapidly.

America is the world’s most advanced, financially sophisticated economy.

So why bother with the dirty, low-margin business of mining?

That’s the attitude that has relegated the US economy to becoming heavily dependent on mineral imports.

But as you’ve seen, the West’s lack of interest in mining is quickly changing.

Tech is putting more attention on its vulnerable raw material supply chains…

Bezos and Gates have partnered with mining ventures, such as KoBold Metals, as they attempt to stamp their name on future mineral discoveries.

US vehicle manufacturers, such as Ford, Tesla, and General Motors, have taken an abrupt liking to signing direct mineral offtake agreements with mining developers.

Meanwhile, the US government is pouring billions into upgrading the Lobito Corridor in Angola to secure access to Africa’s copper mines.

Plus, signing a historic $13 billion deal with Australia, aimed at bringing patches of dirt into operating mines.

The US is divided over many things… But the need to secure mineral supply chains is one of the few examples of bipartisan unity.

Through decades of unencumbered supply, America has paid little attention to the ‘old-world economy’ of mineral extraction and processing.

But that laissez-faire attitude is shifting.

US manufacturers are anxious…

US politicians are keen to make deals.

Tech firms are investing directly in exploration.

So, can investors benefit?

No doubt, the US government has placed mineral supply as a key priority.

However, decades of mine closures, underinvestment in new mine developments, and offshoring of mineral processing ensure that the US will remain reliant for many years to come.

Last week in the Trump-Albanese Washington meet-up, Trump said one thing that caught my attention: ‘Come this time next year, America will be swimming in critical minerals.’

However, this is not true… finding and building mines doesn’t take one year.

It doesn’t even take ten years…

It can take up to 15-20 years to get a patch of dirt into a working mine!

Just ask Barrick, with their multi-decade attempt to get the copper-gold Reko Diq project into production…

Or Lynas and their prolonged attempt to build heavy and light-weight processing of rare earths from their Mt Weld mine.

This won’t come quickly or easily. And that’s where the opportunity sits for investors.

I’ll explain more next week, stay tuned!