The Great American Mineral Grab

No doubt, we are in a phase of major geopolitical spotlighting on minerals… Donald Trump, China, tariffs, ending the war in Ukraine, Greenland and Russia.

Over the past four years, a group of obscure commodities has risen from the back of a geeky science textbook to the hottest thing across markets.

It has been the big-ticket item that has threaded together some of the biggest geopolitical headlines of our times.

You might recall that last year, the US and Ukraine were discussing a minerals-for-military-aid deal that would hand Ukraine’s seemingly vast supplies of rare earths to the US economy.

Thus, solve America’s reliance on China for this critical group of commodities. In return, the US would hand Ukraine vast military aid.

As it turns out, an old US Geological Survey report showed that Ukraine doesn’t actually hold much in the way of rare earths!

Excitement waned, and the deal was put on ice.

Ukraine’s vast supply of rare earths was far less than Trump or the media had imagined.

Nevertheless, it put another major geopolitical spotlight on critical minerals.

And of course, China has played its role in profiling critical minerals as a major theme of this decade… A country that has flirted with its ability to  ‘weaponise’ the dominance of global critical mineral processing.

That reached an inflection point in April 2025, after the Asian superpower hit back against US tariffs by imposing export restrictions on rare earths.

Clearly, the US is concerned. Minerals have gained significant leverage in geopolitical manoeuvring.

Bottom line: a focus on minerals represents a major shift in political strategy; aside from oil, raw materials haven’t been on Washington’s national security agenda for a long time.

But as we’ve seen, that’s changing rapidly.

The USA: the world’s most advanced, financially sophisticated economy.

So, why would it bother with the dirty, low-margin business of mining?

That’s the attitude that has relegated the US economy to heavy dependence on mineral imports.   

But as you’ve seen, the West’s lack of interest in mining is changing; tech is paying more attention to its vulnerable raw-material supply chains.

Bezos and Gates have partnered with mining ventures, such as KoBold Metals, as they attempt to stamp their name on future mineral discoveries.  

US vehicle manufacturers, such as Ford, Tesla, and General Motors, have taken an abrupt liking to signing direct mineral offtake agreements with mining developers. 

Plus, signing a historic $13 billion deal with Australia, aimed at bringing patches of raw dirt into operating mines.

Meanwhile, the US government is pouring billions into upgrading the Lobito Corridor in Angola to secure access to Africa’s vast copper mines that sit in the middle of the continent.

In fact, the mineral grab taking place across Africa relates directly to a recent recommendation I made for my paid readership group.

You can check that out here.

Key point: US politics is divided on many issues, but securing mineral supply chains is one of the few areas of bipartisan unity.  

But nothing beats a home-grown project

Mineral self-sufficiency won’t come quickly or easily for America.

But there is some motion underway…

According to a 2024 report by S&P Global, the US exploration sector was growing faster than the global average, fueled by increased interest from both major and junior companies.

But the key thing here is that America is starting from scratch, given the country’s lack of existing mines and decades of reliance on external mineral supplies; it lags some of the larger mineral exploration provinces.

According to S&P Global’s latest figures, total exploration expenditure across the US was $1.46 Billion over 2025, considerably less than in Latin America, which hit $3.28 Billion or Canada, which hit $2.32 Billion last year.

Is there an investment angle?

For investors, there is a blueprint to work with: recall, in the early 2000s, exploration expenditure skyrocketed across the globe to fuel China’s rapid industrialisation and its growing need for commodities.

Australia was one of the primary beneficiaries of that era, serving as the major commodity supplier for the booming Asian region.

However, this time around, growth may ultimately sprout from the US’s drive to shore up its own mineral security.

That could elevate it towards becoming the most prolific region for exploration over the coming years… That’s because the US favours home-grown projects.

Where exploration efforts today can generate new mines within their own country, and ensure ultimate mineral security.

It’s logical.

So, what are the benefits for explorers 
with US-based projects?

For one, companies that successfully discover a mine-worthy deposit can avoid future tariff risks for U.S.-domiciled mining projects.

Improving operating margins and potentially having access to superior pricing.

Critically, though, during the volatile exploration phase, these companies can access generous US government grants as well as offtake agreements with North American manufacturers and giant tech firms.

Their LOCATION ensures they’ll be first in line for all future deals.

That’s why junior mining stocks with projects sitting on US soil could hold a key advantage in the years to come.

And that opportunity extends across the full life cycle of mining, from early stage ‘grassroots’ explorers to late stage feasibility projects.

Again, I suggest you check out our model portfolio here and build some exposure to this important trend.

Until next time.