The US election is finally out of the way. Before we get on with our lives, it is worth dwelling on a few things…
Trump won in a landslide. But the mainstream media (especially in the US) didn’t pick it. They didn’t want to believe it was possible, and so ceased to report on it objectively.
This might not be the death of mainstream media. But it is certainly another self-inflicted cut. Any semi-rational person can see it. The business is a joke. They are little more than mouthpieces for the Establishment.
The King of alternative media, Joe Rogan, had Trump on his podcast. Elon Musk, owner of X, formerly Twitter, was a key Trump ally. Harris, on the other hand, preferred the easy and docile audience delivered by the mainstream media.
In four years’ time, when podcasting is bigger, and broadcast audiences smaller, do you think the Democrats will make the same mistake again? Or maybe they’ll be forced to run with someone that can string a few unscripted sentences together.
They’ll need to, because the legacy media will just be four more years down the road to irrelevancy.
Trump’s victory is a rejection of the elites trying to tell us how to live our lives. It’s a rejection of wokeness and virtue signalling, and all the warped ideas coming out of our once venerable universities and institutions.
It’s a rejection of big pharma and big processed food.
But whether team Trump can actually do anything about it remains to be seen.
And our humble little team here at Fat Tail Investment Research played a part in this as well.
We are the only organisation in Australia publishing Jim Rickards’ commentary on the US election. Rickards is not everyone’s cup of tea. He even puts a few noses out of joint internally.
But we publish him because his views are well researched and well-articulated. He doesn’t care about being popular. He cares about being right.
I published part of Jim’s analysis in Monday’s Insider (our free e-letter for paid up subscribers). That was all foresight. But with the benefit of hindsight, its worth looking at again…
‘5 November is just days away. We’re now around the far turn, down the homestretch and at the finish line. The only certainty is that the election will be close. Here are our forecasts:
‘Donald Trump and JD Vance will win election as the next president and vice president of the United States.
‘In fact, they may already have won the election due to mail-in and drop box ballots. We just don’t know yet because those votes won’t be counted until 5 November.
‘Over two-thirds of American voters will have cast ballots before election day and those voting on election day are likely to divide along the same lines as those voting early so the election may well be over. Either way, Trump-Vance looks like the winning ticket.
‘The best third-party estimate of the outcome as of this writing appears below. This is the RealClear Politics polling average Electoral College map with no toss-up states. A candidate needs 270 Electoral Votes to win. This map shows Trump with a comfortable if close 297–241 Electoral Vote advantage.
‘Below is the RealClear Politics Electoral College Map based on the latest state-by-state polls. It assumes no toss-ups among the states. If either Trump or Harris has a polling lead, they are awarded that state even if the lead is only 0.1%. This means that any particular state especially the battlegrounds could flip from one candidate to the other and change the outcome. That said, this is the best estimate available today and shows an Electoral College vote in favour of Trump.
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| Source: RealClear Politics |
‘My proprietary models show a somewhat different split of Electoral Votes. My conservative estimate has Trump winning Michigan, which would give Trump a 312–226 Electoral College edge — close to landslide territory.
‘My slightly more aggressive model shows Trump winning Michigan, Virginia and New Hampshire, which puts the Electoral Vote count at 329–209 in favour of Trump — a truly historic landslide victory.
‘My Senate forecast is that Republicans will re-take the Senate with a solid 54–46 majority. That’s up from their current minority status of only 49 Senate seats. My House forecast with 435 seats up for grabs is more speculative (due to scarce polling data). But my best estimate is that the Republicans will hold the House and increase their lead slightly to 225–210. That’s up from the current margin of 220–212 (with 3 vacancies). That will give the Republicans a solid working majority.
‘This outcome would leave the Republicans in charge of the White House, Senate and the House of Representatives, with control of future nominees for Supreme Court Justice — a clean sweep.’
(You can start a 30-day trial of Jim and Nick’s Strategic Intelligence service here BTW.)
The mainstream media, on the other hand, told you the election was too close to call. They told you a result might not be known for months. They told you that Trump would contest another lost election.
Just more credibility down the toilet for a dying industry.
The initial market reaction was interesting. Although we would caution against reading too much into it. Market players were clearly not ready for a decisive Trump victory.
US indices soared. Aussie stocks fell. Bond yields rose across the board. That signals growth prospects and/or inflation concerns.
Gold, silver and copper dumped…then partially reversed that move overnight. Profit taking and concerns about a less ‘green’ administration were the reasons (or guesses?) behind those moves.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, made a new all-time high!
US coal stocks surged, while Aussie coal stocks did nothing. Energy stocks rallied, even though Trump was meant to be bearish for oil.
Hong Kong and Chinese equities rallied, despite the threat of Trump tariffs. That’s a bullish sign in my view. When markets are so beaten up that ‘bad news’ doesn’t have an impact…it’s a good sign.
As I said on Monday, I believe this is the start of a bull market in Chinese equities. I think they climb a wall of ‘Trump tariff’ worry from here.
But don’t read too much into all these short-term moves. It’s mostly noise, with a bit of information.
It’s our mission to cut through that noise. And to give you analysis, insight and recommendations for how to interpret and act on that information.
Check out our latest idea here.
Regards,
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Greg Canavan,
Editor, Fat Tail Alliance, The Insider and Fat Tail Investment Advisory
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