Is This the Start of the Santa Rally?

By Murray Dawes, Friday, 28 November 2025

After a rough month that saw the ASX 200 drop 8% and local microcaps sink 15%, everyone’s hoping a Santa Rally is around the corner. As US rate cut hopes rise US stocks are edging towards a weekly buy signal. But in Australia, hot inflation has traders worrying we’re heading the other way. In this week’s Closing Bell, Charlie and I break down the diverging paths of the Nasdaq and ASX and where the real action is hiding. We look at fresh moves in copper and an oversold Bitcoin that could be ready to bounce, but we also explain why you might want to de-risk on the way up.

After a torrid month of selling pressure, markets have crossed fingers and toes the worst has passed and a Santa Rally awaits.

US stocks are on the cusp of sending a weekly buy signal, but it hasn’t happened yet..

Australian stocks have copped much more of a beating than their US counterparts, with the S&P/ASX 200 [ASX:XJO] down 8% and microcaps down 15%.

The chance of a rate cut in the US is rising but Australia is going in the opposite direction with some shocking inflation figures released this week.

So we may be in for a period of underperformance in Oz. We are used to that.

The markets are quite frankly a little dull at the moment with Thanksgiving in the US and Christmas around the corner.

But Charlie and I managed to find some movement in copper and Bitcoin that may be of interest to traders.

Bitcoin looks ripe for a bounce from oversold levels. But as I mention in today’s Closing Bell, you would want to de-risk on the way up because the bigger picture is looking slightly dangerous.

So click on the video below to check out this week’s Closing Bell, where we discuss the Nasdaq, S&P/ASX 200, copper, Bitcoin.

YouTube player

Regards,

Murray Dawes,
Retirement Trader and International Stock Trader

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

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Murray Dawes is our resident expert trader and portfolio manager. He is a former Sydney Futures Exchange floor trader who went on to design custom trading systems and strategies for ultra-wealthy clients (including one of Australia’s richest families). Today, his mission is to help ordinary Aussie investors make profitable investments, while expertly managing risk.

He uses his proprietary system for his more conversative and longer-term-focused service Retirement Trader…and then applies the same system to the ultra-speculative end of the Australian market in Fat Tail Microcaps (this service is strictly limited and via invitation only).

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All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.