• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer

Fat Tail Daily

Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve

  • Menu
    • Commodities
      • Resources and Mining
      • Copper
      • Gold
      • Iron Ore
      • Lithium
      • Silver
      • Graphite
      • Rare Earths
    • Technology
      • AI
      • Bitcoin
      • Cryptocurrency
      • Energy
      • Financial Technology
      • Bio Technology
    • Market Analysis
      • Latest ASX News
      • Dividend Shares
      • ETFs
      • Stocks and Bonds
    • Macro
      • Australian Economy
      • Central Banks
      • World Markets
    • Small Caps
    • More
      • Investment Guides
      • Premium Research
      • Editors
      • About
      • Contact Us
  • Latest
  • Fat Tail Series
  • About Us
Latest

The PAX SILICA Files: (The Epstein ones are a distraction)…

Like 4

By Lachlann Tierney, Saturday, 14 February 2026

Markets rolling in one direction, key pieces are lining up for both sides. Enter Pax Silica, and a new set of rules for investors.

Lachy here.

I’ve been given a ‘guest spot’ today because I have big news.

Next week… Tuesday, if all goes to plan… I’m releasing some of the most important research of my career.

It centres around key ‘chokepoints’ in the global AI-resources arms race.

And five specific stocks I’ve tagged to them.

I want you to REALLY watch out for this research when it’s released here next Tuesday. The two key words to look out for: PAX SILICA.

A bit of background…

I grew up playing the board game RISK.

It taught me something critical about how power actually works.

Back at the University of Melbourne, my mates and I would play into the wee hours of the morning in the library. The game taught us something that still shapes how I analyse markets today.

Real power isn’t in the territories you control.

It’s in the alliances you forge. The enemies you create for others.

And the resources you secure before anyone else notices their value.

When you’re holding Australia with its measly two bonus armies per turn, you’d better make friends fast. Or find something valuable to trade.

Right now, that game is playing out on a global scale.

And it’s central to the five stock recommendations I’ll be sending to you next week.

In RISK, you can go after the ‘big ones’, like Asia and North America.

But there’s always one player that quietly builds armies in places like Australia…and Greenland.

Greenland is the oversized, icy plug between Europe and North America.

In RISK, controlling Greenland is quietly powerful.

It’s the northern flank of North America. One of the three chokepoint territories you need if you want to hold the continent’s bonus of five armies per turn while defending only three entry points (Alaska, Central America, and that sneaky opening to Europe via Iceland).

On the standard RISK map, Greenland is the only territory that sits at the strategic hinge between Europe and North America.

Sealing off the continent from external disruption.

In that sense, looking at what’s going on right now through the prism of RISK can help you predict which companies and stocks might be winners or losers in the years ahead…

Whoever owns Greenland gets the
bridges, the bonuses, and the
psychological upper hand…

This is the essence of the stock recommendations I’m about to release next week.

Trump’s long‑running, slightly unhinged interest in buying Greenland — framed as a “real‑estate deal” — fits neatly into my PAX SILICA thesis of what small stocks could become much bigger stocks in the next five years.

In THIS case… he’s not just being a non-thinking loudmouth.

He has people in his ears telling him America needs to own this critical chokepoint.

Officially, the U.S. justifies its interest in Greenland as a national‑security and Arctic‑navigation imperative.

But it’s really about STUFF.

The world’s densest clusters of critical minerals — rare earths, graphite, nickel, and zinc—needed for magnets, batteries, and AI‑adjacent hardware.

Greenland is effectively the northern chokepoint on the critical‑minerals supply chain.

But it’s not the only chokepoint.

As you’ll see when I do my big research dump next week, there are several others. And there are five stocks you might want to own now that may benefit from what plays out in the next year or two.

Precursors of these stocks
are already moving…

If you stacked your armies into Critical Metals Group a year ago, you’d be laughing all the way to the bank right now.

They’re a microcap that has turned Greenland‑adjacent rare earths into a market‑repricing event.

Critical Metals holds a 92.5% stake in the Tanbreez rare earth project in southern Greenland.

Making it the de facto controlling shareholder of one of the world’s largest rare‑earth deposits.

Its shares were trading around a dollar mid-last year.

Now they’re around ten dollars.

These guys just experienced a cluster of “sovereign AI metal” catalysts.

Including regulatory green lights, a huge rare‑earth acquisition, and speculation about direct U.S. government involvement.

Greenland’s Tanbreez project is known as one of the largest heavy rare earth resources in the world. And Critical Metals Group just lifted its stake there to over 90%. Their stock recently popped 322% in two weeks.

Trump’s fixation on buying or otherwise securing Greenland can be read as a kind of real‑world RISK endgame.

If Greenland were a stock, Critical Metals would be the high‑beta, RISK‑style leveraged proxy.

A tiny, illiquid ticker with a massive, Greenland‑sized bet on the outcome of the AI‑metal race.

Next week… I lift the curtain on five more plays I believe are following the same playbook. Keep your eyes on your inbox for my PAX SILICA SELECTION.

Until then,

Lachlann Tierney,
Australian Small-Cap Investigator and Fat Tail Micro-Caps

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

Comments

Subscribe
Notify of
guest
guest
0 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Lachlann Tierney
Lachlann ‘Lachy’ Tierney is passionate about uncovering hidden opportunities in the microcap sector. With four years of experience as a senior equities analyst at one of Australia’s leading microcap firms, he has built a reputation for rigorous research, deep-dive due diligence, and accessible investor communications. Over this time, he has vetted seed, pre-IPO and ASX-listed companies across sectors, conducted onsite visits, and built strong relationships across the microcap space. Lachy is nearing completion of a PhD in economics at RMIT University, where his research focuses on blockchain governance and voting systems. His work was housed within the Blockchain Innovation Hub at RMIT, a leading research centre for crypto-economics and blockchain research. He holds a Master’s degree from the London School of Economics and an Honours BA in Philosophy and Politics from the University of Melbourne. Born in New York and raised in California, Lachy grew up a few blocks from biotech giant Amgen and counts among his peers various characters in the overlapping worlds of venture capital, technology and crypto. When he’s not researching microcaps, he’s most likely sweating it out in a sauna or dunking himself in cold Tasmanian water.

Lachlann’s Premium Subscriptions

Publication logo
Australian Small-Cap Investigator
Publication logo
Fat Tail Microcaps
Publication logo
James Altucher’s Early-Stage Crypto Investor Australia

Latest Articles

  • The Level That Could Send Stocks Tumbling
    By Murray Dawes

    Oil prices are pushing toward US$100, bonds and stocks are selling off together, and large strategies like risk-parity funds could amplify a downturn if key levels break.

  • Why Commodities Move in Packs — And What History Says Happens Next (Part II)
    By James Cooper

    Commodities are surging across the board, and the real reason has nothing to do with the headlines you’re reading.

  • Our Modern Interregnum (Pt.1)
    By Charlie Ormond

    Charlie Ormond explains how the physical economy took the reins after the “Great Financialisation” period ended during the GFC.

Primary Sidebar

Latest Articles

  • The Level That Could Send Stocks Tumbling
  • Why Commodities Move in Packs — And What History Says Happens Next (Part II)
  • Our Modern Interregnum (Pt.1)
  • China Capitulation Part 8 – The new ‘Great Leap Forward’
  • The Age of Hard Assets is Upon Us

Footer

Fat Tail Daily Logo
YouTube
Facebook
x (formally twitter)
LinkedIn

About

Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.

Go beyond conventional investing strategies with unique ideas and actionable opportunities. Our expert editors deliver conviction-led insights to guide your financial journey.

Quick Links

Subscribe

About

FAQ

Terms and Conditions

Financial Services Guide

Privacy Policy

Get in Touch

Contact Us

Email: support@fattail.com.au

Phone: 1300 667 481

All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.

Fat Tail Logo

Fat Tail Daily is brought to you by the team at Fat Tail Investment Research

Copyright © 2026 Fat Tail Daily | ACN: 117 765 009 / ABN: 33 117 765 009 / ASFL: 323 988