• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer

Fat Tail Daily

Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve

  • Menu
    • Commodities
      • Resources and Mining
      • Copper
      • Gold
      • Iron Ore
      • Lithium
      • Silver
      • Graphite
      • Rare Earths
    • Technology
      • AI
      • Bitcoin
      • Cryptocurrency
      • Energy
      • Financial Technology
      • Bio Technology
    • Market Analysis
      • Latest ASX News
      • Dividend Shares
      • ETFs
      • Stocks and Bonds
    • Macro
      • Australian Economy
      • Central Banks
      • World Markets
    • Small Caps
    • More
      • Investment Guides
      • Premium Research
      • Editors
      • About
      • Contact Us
  • Latest
  • Fat Tail Series
  • About Us
Market Analysis Latest ASX News

Genesis Energy Shares Rise on Guidance Upgrade

Like 0

By Kiryll Prakapenka, Friday, 14 October 2022

Shares of utility retailer Genesis Energy [ASX:GNE] rose on Friday (14/10/2022) after favourable conditions in Q1 FY23 led to an upgrade to FY23 EBITDAF (earnings before interest and tax according to fuel type).

Shares of utility retailer Genesis Energy [ASX:GNE] rose on Friday (14/10/2022) after favourable conditions in Q1 FY23 led to an upgrade to FY23 EBITDAF (earnings before interest and tax according to fuel type).

GNE’s new guidance is for FY23 EBITDAF guidance to be around $500 million, up from $455 million.

GNE shares were up 3% in late afternoon trade.

Year to date, GNE shares are down 13%:

ASX:GNE stock chart

 

Source: Tradingview.com

Genesis Q1 FY23 update: ‘favourable trading conditions’

Genesis Energy — one of New Zealand’s largest energy retailers — said it experienced favourable trading conditions in the first quarter of the 2023 financial year.

GNE attributed this to higher hydro inflows and thermal generation flexibility.

Favourable weather conditions also saw Genesis improve its renewable generation capacity by 37% to 1,063GWh.

As a result, the utility’s EBITDAF performance in the first quarter came in higher than expected.

Genesis revised its FY23 EBITDAF guidance from $455 million to $500 million.

However, Genesis cautioned that the revised estimate depends on hydrological conditions, gas availability, and any unforeseeable adverse circumstances like unpredictable weather events.

A closer look at GNE performance

What else did Genesis have to say about its operations?

Genesis said that its Huntly Power Station had slowed its generation, running in periods of lower costs, reducing running time altogether.

Gas availability has been favourable, and Rankine generation flexibility has improved, assisting in a decline in average portfolio costs.

Some areas of the business seesawed: customer numbers increased, though churn remained low, and retail gas netback grew with SME (small businesses) and C&I (commercial and industrial) sectors, yet wholesale gas sales decreased with trade volume and ending contracts.

LPG delivery costs were also noted as having risen, which the company surmises to be due to rising fuel and transport costs.

The energy provider also provided the highlights of overall group operations. The unaudited results included:

ASX:GNE core financials

Source: Genesis

GNE was also pleased with a reduction in customer churn, announcing:

‘In terms of our operational achievements, we were pleased to see customer churn fall during what was a difficult year for many. The churn rate of 12.8% was down on the 15.9% in FY21 and is down further for the first quarter of this year. This, together with our record interaction Net Promoter Score mentioned by Barbara earlier, is a reflection of the dedication of our customer care teams our strong brand and the increasingly innovative ways we are engaging our customers.’

The great EV battery tech race heats up

EV sales are rising.

Automakers like Ford are ramping up their EV production.

And governments are pushing for decarbonisation the world over.

Yet the speed at which automakers and governments are pivoting to EVs is leading to a supply crunch.

As automakers worldwide overhaul their fleets to electric, they must secure more battery tech materials.

Prices for key materials like lithium, graphite, copper, nickel, and cobalt are rising rapidly.

Our energy expert Selva Freigedo thinks the industry is set for a supply crunch, leaving the prices for battery tech materials elevated in the medium term.

Selva has recently profiled the three key metals at the forefront of the EV revolution.

You can read about it here.

Regards,

Kiryll Prakapenka,
For Money Morning

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

Kiryll Prakapenka

Kiryll’s Premium Subscriptions

Publication logo
Fat Tail Investment Research

Latest Articles

  • As Political Dumb-Wits Beat the Drums of War: Keep Commodities Front and Centre
    By James Cooper

    In today’s edition, James Cooper looks at the growing hostilities between Pakistan and India through the lens of the commodity cycle. And why it could matter more than most think.

  • The share market bears have no answer to this…
    By Callum Newman

    I came across a handy bit of info from Wilson Asset Management yesterday. Wilson says that there’s strong demand for Chinese assets despite the recent volatility and trade tensions. Why do we care? There could be profit in this.

  • The method in Trump’s tariff madness
    By Jim Rickards

    Trump is pursuing a twenty-first-century version of what was originally known as the American System. A system that made America great in the first place.

Primary Sidebar

Latest Articles

  • As Political Dumb-Wits Beat the Drums of War: Keep Commodities Front and Centre
  • The share market bears have no answer to this…
  • The method in Trump’s tariff madness
  • The first place to look thanks to the US/China truce
  • The trade war is over. Tax cut chaos is next.

Footer

Fat Tail Daily Logo
YouTube
Facebook
x (formally twitter)
LinkedIn

About

Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.

Go beyond conventional investing strategies with unique ideas and actionable opportunities. Our expert editors deliver conviction-led insights to guide your financial journey.

Quick Links

Subscribe

About

FAQ

Terms and Conditions

Financial Services Guide

Privacy Policy

Get in Touch

Contact Us

Email: support@fattail.com.au

Phone: 1300 667 481

All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.

Fat Tail Logo

Fat Tail Daily is brought to you by the team at Fat Tail Investment Research

Copyright © 2025 Fat Tail Daily | ACN: 117 765 009 / ABN: 33 117 765 009 / ASFL: 323 988