Today we follow on from Fred Harrison’s interview I brought to you last week.
In that interview, Fred concludes that this cycle will continue to a peak in 2026 but be followed by war.
This is why Fred sees this cycle as different from others.
In Fred’s words:
‘In my view the 18-year cycle will continue to extend, house prices will peak in 2026.
‘The end of the cycle is 2028 – the depths of the recession.
‘But unlike previous end of 18 year cycles this one will be a particularly bad economic crisis. And associated with it, will be other existential crises….
‘What I’m saying is that because of the economic causes that will unfold in this business cycle, those existential crises will converge at one time…
‘We are a globalised society now and no corner of the earth will be immune from what will happen if, as I fear, these four existential crises collide at the same time…’
He is forecasting a catechism of four existential crises converging as we reach the peak in 2026.
- The economic crisis
- The migrant crisis
- The military crisis and
- The climate crisis
If you didn’t catch the interview, you can watch it here.
It would be foolish to ignore Fred’s warnings of what could occur following the peak. His extensive research of economic history has allowed him the reputation of one of the world’s most accurate economic forecasters.
However, to expand on this analysis, we need to also look at the K-Wave.
The K-Wave is an economic theory that refers to a long-term cycle of boom and bust that occurs roughly every 50–60 years.
It was first proposed by the economist Nikolai Kondratiev in the 1920s and is also known as the Kondratiev wave or long wave.
The theory suggests that major technological innovations and the adoption of new economic systems cause the cycle.
Kondratiev showed that commodity prices bottomed in the 1770s and peaked in 1819 after the Napoleonic wars.
They bottomed again in the 1840s and peaked in the early 1860s with the US Civil War.
They bottomed again in the late 1890s and peaked in the 1920s — just following the First World War.
This analysis allowed Kondratiev to forecast the early 1930s depression (which occurred after his death), with the subsequent recovery swinging upwards into the 1970s (1974).
If he were forecasting forward from that date, he may then have expected to see a low in commodity prices (and the completion of the fourth wave) at the turn of the century in 2000.
This occurred in relative terms (although prices were high in the 1950s due to the credit creation process brought in by the central bank).
Still, 2000 was the low point that started the next long wave.
In other words, we are now firmly on the upswing of the commodity price wave.
Extrapolating forward, the next long swing upwards takes us to the late 2020s. And this is where we’re heading now — peaking around the same time as the current real estate cycle — in 2026.
War is a constant feature at the peak of each K-Wave (a period of 54–60 years). If this plays out as expected, we need to be prepared for what lies ahead.
Yesterday, I shared with Cycles, Trends & Forecasts subscribers extensive research that laid out the timing for war, what could happen to property prices and the real estate cycle if it does occur, and the risks that investors need to be aware of.
I cannot disclose that information in Land Cycle Investor. However, I would like to share a recent interview I conducted with one of the world’s greatest global forecasters, David Murrin. Unless action is taken, David also has grave views regarding events over the next few years.
David Murrin is one of the smartest people I know.
He has over two decades of experience in financial forecasting and strategic consulting.
He’s advised governments, international organisations, and Fortune 500 companies on a wide range of issues, from economic policy to investment strategy.
His unique insights and unparalleled expertise have earned him a reputation as a leading voice in the industry.
He is the author of numerous titles, including Breaking the Code of History, in which he expands on the models of empire and human behaviour that have allowed him to make some incredibly accurate forecasts in recent years.
And Red Lightning – How the West lost War to China in 2025. David Murrin has an impressive CV behind him.
He began his working career exploring the jungles of Papa New Guinea and the Pacific islands working in oil exploration.
He went on to trade at a Wall Street bank, after which he set up his own investment firm and hedge fund, using his models for understanding geopolitics and markets to make profitable returns for himself and his investors.
Murrin’s thesis is essentially a five-stage empire model (using K-Wave and Elliot wave analysis), which, in 2002, when he created it, implied, and predicted that:
- The US was in terminal decline — the fifth stage of his empire model.
- China was the second of the Asian super empires and was in its expansion phase and would move into the gap aggressively to create a hegemonic challenge to the US.
- He has forecast that the peak of their hegemonic challenge will come with the next commodity cycle peak — between 2025–27.
- And we would have a human threat of a third World War unless certain steps were taken now to change the course of history.
In our interview, we discuss David’s forecasts.
What he sees ahead in terms of his forecast for a third World War, where to hide, and where to store cash at the peak of the K-Wave.
David is a charming man and was extremely generous with his time. He has a lot of knowledge in warfare and defence as well as the K-Wave.
I hope you find the chat as informative as I did.
Best wishes,
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Catherine Cashmore,
Editor, Land Cycle Investor
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