Buy Signal in Bonds

By Murray Dawes, Saturday, 18 November 2023

With bonds rallying and potentially confirming a monthly buy signal this month, equities may be close to a sustained run

In today’s Fat Tail Daily, don't miss today's Closing Bell video analysing 10-year yields, oil, gold, and the S&P for crucial insights into reading the market winds, however they shift.

As a trader, I have learned that having strong views about market direction is pointless.

It can lead to confirmation bias and losses as a result of ignoring warning signs.

Discussing the state of markets on a weekly basis and showing you the chart set ups shouldn’t be seen as a claim that I know what the markets are about to do every minute of every day.

I am just showcasing my method for analysing price action and every now and again when I see the odds of something happening as quite high, I will point it out.

Over the past few months I have been bearish on the S&P 500 and had a target which was the midpoint or ‘point of control’ of the correction.

That target was hit last month.

At the time, I said that the odds of a rise or fall are around 50% once the point of control is hit, so that’s where you should take some or all of your profits.

I certainly didn’t know that markets were about to blast off and rally in the way that they did.

I will happily flip my view to bullish if the charts tell me to. But as I show you in today’s Closing Bell, there is still a risk the S&P 500 can turn back down from this area. The weekly trend remains down so until that changes, I will tread carefully.

But with bonds rallying and potentially confirming a monthly buy signal this month, equities may be close to a sustained run.

In today’s Closing Bell video I have a look at the US 10-year bond yield, oil, gold and the S&P 500.

Regards,

Murray Dawes Signature

Murray Dawes,
Editor, Fat Tail Daily

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

Comments

Subscribe

0 Comments

Inline Feedbacks

View all comments

Murray Dawes is our resident expert trader and portfolio manager. He is a former Sydney Futures Exchange floor trader who went on to design custom trading systems and strategies for ultra-wealthy clients (including one of Australia’s richest families). Today, his mission is to help ordinary Aussie investors make profitable investments, while expertly managing risk.

He uses his proprietary system for his more conversative and longer-term-focused service Retirement Trader…and then applies the same system to the ultra-speculative end of the Australian market in Fat Tail Microcaps (this service is strictly limited and via invitation only).

Murray’s Premium Subscriptions

Retirement Trader

The Company Who Cried Wolf
By Charlie Ormond

AI company Anthropic has been on the rooftops shouting about the threats of its upcoming model. Insiders have widely panned the move as a marketing ploy. So where are the risks?
The Pros Got Crushed… What That Means for You
By Murray Dawes

Markets have just ripped higher, with the S&P 500 surging 15% in less than two weeks. But beneath the surface, things aren’t nearly as strong as they look.
The Great Energy Pivot: Rewriting the Oil Trade [Part IV]
By James Cooper

In this final edition, we outline why controlling global oil could be the US’s last weapon in hanging onto its decades-long hegemony. Control the Oil. Control the World.

All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.