Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

Iran is taxing oil in yuan and crypto, but how many ounces of silver do I need to buy a pound of frozen OJ? What a weird commodity pair reveals about money, energy and power.

Beyond the fog of war, big changes are taking shape

Brian Chu

Even as there is no resolution with the Iranian conflict yet, signs of big changes are emerging. These relate to the global energy market, diplomatic relations between traditional allies, and how countries will manage their supply chain.

This oil war is triggering an avalanche of lithium demand

Iran’s war is squeezing oil, supercharging EV demand and quietly tightening lithium. Lachlann shows how four ASI lithium plays are positioned for this second‑order shock.

The Great Energy Pivot: Rewriting the Oil Trade [Part II]

Supply chain dominance of critical minerals has been used to push national agendas. What happens if energy is used as the next major coercive tool?

Most Read…

Enter your email address in the box below and you’ll get Fat Tail Daily every day…absolutely free.

Please read our Terms & Conditions.

We will collect and handle your personal information in accordance with our Privacy Policy.

You can cancel your subscription at any time.

Commodities

The Great Energy Pivot: Rewriting the Oil Trade [Part II]

Supply chain dominance of critical minerals has been used to push national agendas. What happens if energy is used as the next major coercive tool?

Part I: The Great Energy Pivot: How the Rules of Global Oil and Gas Are Being Rewritten

The old energy order is fracturing. Decades of balance between buyers and sellers is unravelling — and the suppliers are winning.

Markets Celebrating Like the War is Over. Except it isn’t.

Markets are rallying — but don’t be fooled. One critical support level suggests the oil crisis has further to run.

Nuclear is the last great power standing

Nick Hubble

We didn’t have to learn this lesson the hard way. But now that we have, the need for nuclear is too obvious to ignore any longer. Wake up, Australia.

Relative Strength, Absolute Conviction: Reading Oil’s Rise Before It Happened

While JPMorgan and the IEA predicted falling oil prices, one contrarian signal quietly pointed to the trade of the year.

Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

Please read our Terms & Conditions.

We will collect and handle your personal information in accordance with our Privacy Policy.

You can cancel your subscription at any time.

Technology

The Cockroaches are Multiplying

Six weeks ago, I asked whether private credit was the new subprime. Things are only looking worse since.

The Chokepoint Always Wins

Markets continue to price this as a temporary disruption. But the idea that Iran will simply hand Hormuz back for free looks naïve in the gaze of history.

AI’s Next Bottleneck is Plumbing

Everyone’s watching chips and power. Almost no one is watching the optical shifts that insiders are scrambling to solve. That’s about to change.

Death of the Petrodollar

Iran is offering Hormuz passage in exchange for yuan settlement. This could be the wedge that splits the world’s financial system in two.

An Era of ‘Cheap War’

Drones are reshaping warfare. And the economics of shooting them down don’t add up. Here’s one company that could change that.

Small Caps

Silver, Juice and Power

Iran is taxing oil in yuan and crypto, but how many ounces of silver do I need to buy a pound of frozen OJ? What a weird commodity pair reveals about money, energy and power.

Beyond the fog of war, big changes are taking shape

Brian Chu

This oil war is triggering an avalanche of lithium demand

Iran’s war is squeezing oil, supercharging EV demand and quietly tightening lithium. Lachlann shows how four ASI lithium plays are positioned for this second‑order shock.

China Capitulation Part 9 – Rethinking a regime’s control over its people

Brian Chu

Iran has shown that a regime can suppress its people but still end up more vulnerable than ever. This could be a warning to the Chinese Communist Party elites that a massive army don’t ensure their safety.

Don’t Watch The Strait, Read This

Iran’s oil shock is squeezing markets while AI devours electricity, pushing capital toward one overlooked winner: baseload nuclear and uranium plays

Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

Please read our Terms & Conditions.

We will collect and handle your personal information in accordance with our Privacy Policy.

You can cancel your subscription at any time.

Market Analysis

Green Light Still Pending

Markets surged this week on news of a ceasefire in Iran. But a strict reading of the trading model suggests caution, with short-term risks still pointing to potential downside despite strong price action.

Trump Whiplash Sends Markets Spinning Again

In today’s Closing Bell, we analyse a wide range of viewer-requested stocks, from coal and fertilisers to lithium, rare earths, drones, and pharma.

Major Support Under Siege in US Markets

US markets are sitting on a knife-edge after another sharp sell-off. The risk is that we’re approaching the point where selling overwhelms buyers, and the correction accelerates.

Triple Witching Could Trigger Sell-Off

Markets are starting to show real signs of stress. The setup is there for increased volatility in the weeks ahead.

The Level That Could Send Stocks Tumbling

Oil prices are pushing toward US$100, bonds and stocks are selling off together, and large strategies like risk-parity funds could amplify a downturn if key levels break.

Macro

Reactors under construction equal MORE uranium demand

According to the World Nuclear Association, China has around 30 nuclear reactors under various stages of construction. Where will it get the fuel?

Uranium: An Undercurrent of Supply Problems

According to the World Nuclear Association, at least 70 nuclear power reactors are currently under construction worldwide; can uranium production keep up?

Weaponising Energy: The Next Phase of Trade Oppression

James Cooper revisits the opportunity in uranium; according to James, it’s an opportunity that goes beyond its speculative connection with AI-buildouts.

September 11, 1973:The Other 9/11 America Doesn’t Talk About