Why Microsoft is restarting Three Mile Island

In our last edition, we talked about why the AI resource race could devolve into a war-like footing rather than a continued investment boom.

So, let’s revisit when the first shots were fired in this conflict: December 2024.

At the time, Beijing announced it was banning exports of three metals to the United States: antimony, gallium and germanium, essential materials for semiconductors, defence systems and AI hardware.

The effect was immediate; reports suggest antimony shipments from China to America collapsed by around 97%!

Export bans from China remain an ever-present threat to the US’s ability to maintain its edge in AI.

But Beijing wasn’t finished…

In April 2025, it added seven types of rare earths to its export control list. A move that infamously halted Elon Musk’s ability to manufacture the Optimus line of robots.

Beijing’s message to the US was unmistakable: we control the bottom of your supply chain, and we’re prepared to squeeze it.

Washington Responded

Then the US government went into patch-up mode, trying to restore a semblance of supply-chain resilience.

In July 2025, the Pentagon bought $400 million in stock in rare-earth miner MP Materials, becoming the company’s largest shareholder.

It also guaranteed MP a price floor of $110 per kilogram for its rare earth product, roughly double the market price at the time, and locked in that price for 10 years.

Since then, the announcements have come in a steady barrage.

The Pentagon committed $258 million to Lynas, an Australian company, for a Texas processing plant. Washington took equity stakes in Trilogy Metals and Lithium Americas. Copper, silver and uranium were added to the official critical minerals list. A $12 billion strategic stockpile, known as Project Vault, was unveiled.

Then there’s energy…

Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta have contracted more than 10 gigawatts of nuclear power capacity just to feed their AI servers. Microsoft is now restarting Three Mile Island.

The Escalation Continues

While the war in Iran plays out, the bigger war continues.

China’s response has mirrored Washington’s; export controls have tightened, and Beijing has moved to seize control of processing chokepoints, forcing other nations to diversify and secure their own scarce resources.

Delays in licensing, shipment redirection, embargoes, tariffs, and export controls. This is how superpowers conduct warfare in the modern era. 

If you haven’t been paying much attention to these events, they probably look like random headlines.

Yet more and more, it all seems to come back to this one issue: an arms race for AI supremacy, with the raw materials sitting right at its centre.

So, what comes next?

Events seem to be trending towards escalation. Major mobilisation of capital and resources as two superpowers vie for an advantage.

And clearly, all that money has to land somewhere…

Companies extracting the raw materials and energy that bring AI technology into existence: the miners, the refiners, and the energy producers.

Until next time.