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The contrarian case for tiny ASX stocks

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By Lachlann Tierney, Tuesday, 18 August 2026

Australia’s micro-cap market looks unloved amid recession chatter, AI mania and bond-market panic — exactly the kind of neglected territory contrarian investors should be watching.

I’ve got a torn muscle in my back.

Can’t cough, can’t laugh.

(And I won’t even get into what else hurts).

But this is how I feel about BOTH my back and ASX micro-caps right now…

“Position: excellent.”

The absolute madman.

You’re telling me ASX micro-caps are looking good right now?

Right now? Seriously?

Yes, yes I am.

Have a look at this chart I shared with readers of Australian Small-Cap Investigator a couple weeks ago:

Data chart

Source: Tradingview

[Click to open in a new window]

The ASX Emerging Companies Index [XEC] is telling a different story to the sad narratives we hear about in the major mastheads every day.

Mortgages bleeding people dry…

Auction clearance rates falling…

And on and on…

It’s all noise!

So here I am, hunched over my computer in pain, writing to you about the micro-cap market on a Tuesday afternoon.

In the age of AI.

With US tech stocks going berserk…

With a US Treasury secretary jetting off to put out fires in the Japanese bond market…

And meanwhile in our (formerly?) 
Lucky Country…

We have an insidious melon fixation.

(A convenient smokescreen for Operation Drain the Gravy Train…)

That’s right, we can get AI companies to fund our energy pipedreams.

Perhaps there’s just enough gravy available for one last, almighty cash barbeque…

A grand effigy burning à la Burning Man, except instead of twigs, the structure is constructed of $50 notes?

Article image

Source: YouTube

We all love a good money fire!

Get to the bloody point Lachy

Here it is.

When financial apocalypse is writ large across the sky by just about every Chicken Little that you can find…

That’s what I call “Situation: Excellent.”

We live in an attention economy now.

Meaning, the only way to find value is to pay attention to what others aren’t looking at.

Right now, that’s small-caps 
and micro-caps.

Look before others do.

And let me be clear — stock market crashes are inevitable.

We will have a stock market crash again.

But listen to this…

When “everyone” in Australia agrees on something, then it’s time to do the opposite…

Trust me, consensus lasts about a week, and it’s either the top or the bottom.

So that’s the idea…

By the time your neighbour is telling you about some random penny stock…

That’s the top.

It’s done.

Best look at these little ASX micro-caps before others do.

Warm regards,

Lachlann Tierney,
Australian Small-Cap Investigator and Fat Tail Microcaps

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

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Lachlann Tierney
Lachlann ‘Lachy’ Tierney is passionate about uncovering hidden opportunities in the microcap sector. With four years of experience as a senior equities analyst at one of Australia’s leading microcap firms, he has built a reputation for rigorous research, deep-dive due diligence, and accessible investor communications. Over this time, he has vetted seed, pre-IPO and ASX-listed companies across sectors, conducted onsite visits, and built strong relationships across the microcap space. Lachy holds a PhD in economics from RMIT University, where his research focused on blockchain governance and voting systems. His work was housed within the Blockchain Innovation Hub at RMIT, a leading research centre for crypto-economics and blockchain research. He also holds a Master of Science degree from the London School of Economics and an B.A. (Hons.) in Philosophy and Politics from the University of Melbourne. Born in New York and raised in California, Lachy grew up a few blocks from biotech giant Amgen and counts among his peers various characters in the overlapping worlds of venture capital, technology and crypto. When he’s not researching microcaps, he’s most likely sweating it out in a sauna or dunking himself in cold Tasmanian water.

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All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

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