Where there’s smoke

It looked like a scene from Hell. Charred skeletons of trees. Blackened grass. Burnt-out fields. And thick smoke.

On the left were the gendarmes blocking a turn. Straight ahead was heavy smoke. Daily Times:

Nearly 40,000 hectares of forests and vegetation have burned across France since the start of 2026, Interior Minister Laurent Nunez said. The damage has already exceeded last year’s total…Nunez said the burned area has also surpassed the level recorded by this stage in 2022. He described 2022 as an exceptional wildfire season. Hundreds of firefighters remain deployed to contain active blazes.

We’ve been in these parts for three decades. We’ve never seen anything like it. But stuff happens, doesn’t it? Isn’t that as good an analysis as we are likely to get?

We were on our way back from a wedding in Normandy. The two principal actors – bride and groom – pledged not to disappoint each other. That pledge, too, sometimes proves hollow. But we count on each other to do the right thing…and hope for the best.

Just as we got close to home, a huge pillar of smoke rose up. It might have been TV coverage of the latest bombing of Iran. But it was our own farm. And it appeared to be on fire.

“Everything is super dry,” our handyman later explained. “All it takes is a spark and you’ll have a major fire on your hands. So, you’re not allowed to do anything that might set one off. No backyard barbecues. No fires in the fireplace. You can’t even mow the lawn.”

Everything was so parched, it didn’t look like mowing would be necessary for a long time. But…

“Why can’t we mow,” we asked.

“Because the blade might strike a stone, give off a spark, and cause a fire.”

It seemed unlikely, but Damien insisted that even unlikely things happen from time to time. And one of them was happening right now.

“No, it’s not on our property yet,” Damien clarified. “The wind shifted. The fire goes across the dry grass and then gets into the woods. But about ten of the local farmers came out on their big tractors. They plowed a firebreak that should stop it from getting to us.”

A minute later, the ten tractors thundered by the house…unpaid, unthanked…on their way to the next emergency.

Two water bombers flew over the fire and dropped their loads. Smoke continued to billow up…but then, a few minutes later, it grew less threatening. By evening, only a wisp was seen, curling up to the heavens as if from a supernaturally big cigarette.

“The fire’s been burning for a few days,” Damien reported. “But I think it is now under control. It’s still burning, but under surveillance.”

Stuff happens. We move on to other stuff. Most of the headlines focus on the war. Fox:

Trump weighs full-scale return to war after Iran launches new missile attacks

Chief foreign correspondent Trey Yingst reports on new Iranian missile attacks across Bahrain and drone launches over Jordan following a tenth night of U.S. strikes. Former National Security Council Director Rich Goldberg analyzes operations in the Strait of Hormuz after Central Command escorted 900 commercial vessels carrying 450 million barrels of crude oil.

We count on our president to do the right thing. But has the spark already been struck? Will the war be out of control…how much will it destroy before the tractors arrive?

The price of oil – to the moon? Lines at gas stations a la 1973? Nothing at all? Hard to know, but probably not good.

And how about the stock market? Stuff could happen there too. Our grandfather used to tell us a story that passed around Baltimore during the Crash of ‘29. A desperate man jumped out of a 10^th story window. (You could still open windows back then.) As he was falling past the 3rd floor he was heard to say: ‘Well, I’m alright so far.’ That sweet lullaby came to a sudden end two floors down.

By almost any metric you use, stocks are near the highest levels ever – once again on the 10^th floor or higher. They could go up, of course. And maybe AI could power a whole new economic boom.

But another fory years of rising stock prices? Much more likely, but by no means guaranteed, is a sell-off. Back in the 1870s railroads were the AI of the day. They were expected to make investors richer than ever. But in the Panic of 1873, railroads failed, banks failed, lumber companies failed…all the components of the boom hit the sidewalk. And the resulting depression lasted for the next six years.

And then, twenty years later, another railroad bubble burst. Railroads were considered such good investments that the public poured money — usually by buying bonds — into new railroad construction. Track mileage, the rough equivalent of AI data centers today, doubled in the 1880s. Actual freight traffic, and revenues, could not keep up. The bungee-like tether – connecting investors’ fantasies to real world output — stretched.

What could the railroads do?

They didn’t have enough income to pay past debts. So, they began that immortal ‘dance of the doomed.’ They issued new debt to pay the old debt. It wasn’t long before investors refused to lend more money and the whole bubble went flat. Five hundred banks went broke. Unemployment in Michigan reached 43% and 15,000 businesses failed, including the Union Pacific, Northern Pacific and Santa Fe railroads. The resulting depression lingered until 1897.

Stuff happens.