• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer

Fat Tail Daily

Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve

  • Menu
    • Commodities
      • Resources and Mining
      • Copper
      • Gold
      • Iron Ore
      • Lithium
      • Silver
      • Graphite
      • Rare Earths
    • Technology
      • AI
      • Bitcoin
      • Cryptocurrency
      • Energy
      • Financial Technology
      • Bio Technology
    • Market Analysis
      • Latest ASX News
      • Dividend Shares
      • ETFs
      • Stocks and Bonds
    • Macro
      • Australian Economy
      • Central Banks
      • World Markets
    • Small Caps
    • More
      • Investment Guides
      • Premium Research
      • Editors
      • About
      • Contact Us
  • Latest
  • Fat Tail Series
  • About Us
Latest

When Green Sees Red — EVs and the Future of Transport

Like 0

By Selva Freigedo, Friday, 18 December 2020

The pandemic and the lockdowns have had quite an impact on travel. Seems like people are avoiding public transport, driving more…and sitting in traffic. It could be the push EVs need to make them mainstream...

I took public transport for the first time in about a year last week.

It wasn’t too bad.

The train was almost empty which meant that there was plenty of personal space, stops were brief at every station, and that I could grab a seat.

While I’m glad to have the option of public transport, to be honest I’m in no rush to go back to using it every day. I’ll probably drive more.

Seems I’m not the only one in thinking this.

How to Limit Your Risks While Trading Volatile Stocks. Learn more.

The Guardian recently ran a poll on it. In Australia close to 45% of people said they are planning to use their car more than before in the future. This compares to 10% who said they expect they’ll be using their car less.



Source: The Guardian

[Click to open in a new window]

I mean, the pandemic and the lockdowns have had quite an impact on travel. For most of it we’ve been stuck at home.

But now that we are starting to reopen, trains and trams are still running empty here in Melbourne, and the roads are filled with vehicles. Seems like people are avoiding public transport, driving more…and sitting in traffic.

I think some of these forced lifestyle changes will stick after the pandemic is over, like working from home a couple days a week, or using our cars more instead of public transport.

A recent report by RAC in the UK suggests that 57% of people surveyed said they now see having access to a car as ‘crucial’. And over half (52%) said they’ll be using public transport less in the future.

In fact, the number of people who say they’ll be using their cars more even if public transport is improved is at an 18-year high…

I mean, really, who misses travelling packed up like a sardine?

It’s not surprising then that as the UK opened up last summer, used car sales soared as people looked to avoid public transport.

But it’s interesting.

Less than a year ago we were looking at a decline in car ownership because of the shared economy, particularly for younger people. But the pandemic has changed things.

But also, because people want to use their cars more at a time when countries are looking at decreasing emissions and pledging to go carbon neutral in a few decades.

It could be the push EVs need to make them mainstream.

Electric Vehicles are the Future of Transport

I mean, so far, even though we’ve heard a lot about EVs, they still make up a small percentage of the global fleet. In 2019 EV sales accounted for just 2.6% of global car sales and they made up about 1% of total global fleet.

But they are growing.

Since 2010 the number of EVs around the world have grown from about 17,000 to 7.2 million, with EV car sales seeing a year-on-year growth of 40% in 2019.

Half of the EVs in the world are in China.

China’s EV sales are expected to reach 1.3 million this year, up 8% from the previous year. And then to increase to 1.8 million next year, up 40%.

So, things for EVs are moving in many parts of the world.

For one, technology is accelerating.

And then, of course, as I wrote last week some governments are expediting the trend. The UK is banning new petrol and diesel car sales by 2030, Norway even earlier, by 2025. There’re looking at reducing emissions with this policy, but also to reduce energy dependence from abroad, to things like oil.

EVs have perks for drivers too.

The upfront cost is higher, but they are cheaper to run and have fewer moving parts which means less maintenance.

In fact, if you want to check out how much you would save with an EV compared to your car, you can do so here.

But it doesn’t look like things will be happening as quickly here in Australia yet.

The press this week got a hold of the ‘Future Fuels Strategy’, a draft of the federal government’s plans for EVs, and it doesn’t look like they’ll get much of a push.

From RenewEconomy:

‘The leaked discussion paper, obtained by RenewEconomy and its EV-focused sister site The Driven, contained little in the way of new funding or programs, apart from an observation that Australia desperately needs more charging infrastructure and basic information for consumers.

‘The one initiative that is unveiled is a commitment by Comcar, that operates the federal government’s car fleet, will conduct a two year trial of EVs to assess their potential future use.

‘The fact that Australia’s EV policy remains only a “discussion document” — despite the promises in the last two years of a detailed policy — has also left the industry and advocates disappointed, but hardly surprised given the Coalition’s disinterest in EVs, and its relentless misinformation during last year’s election campaign — led by prime minister Scott Morrison and energy minister Angus Taylor.

‘“It’s actually a do nothing strategy,” Behyad Jafari, the CEO of the Electric Vehicle Council, said. “It’s a real shame because we know what works. The government has announced another $2.7 billion in fossil fuel subsidies, but on EVs they have got no plan.”

‘Jafari says Australia, already trailing the world with less than 1 per cent penetration of EVs in new car sales (compared to Noway’s car 80 per cent), will be left further behind just as the global transition to electric vehicles is picking up pace.’

And of course, there’s also the little controversy on EV tax in South Australia, Victoria, and NSW.

Still though, even with the lack of policy, EV car sales have been rising in Australia.

According to The Driven, over the last 12 months EV sales were up 10.9%, with more models to choose from. Including Tesla’s estimated deliveries, then EV sales have close to doubled from 2019 year to date.

So even without any policy help there’s still an appetite for EVs. Expect to hear more on this trend in the new year.

Best,

Selva Freigedo,
For Money Morning

PS: Invest in the Renewable Energy Boom — Discover three ways you can invest to capitalise on the $95 trillion switchover from fossil fuels to renewables. Click here to learn more.

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

Comments

Subscribe
Notify of
guest
guest
0 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Selva Freigedo

Selva’s Premium Subscriptions

Publication logo
Fat Tail Investment Research

Latest Articles

  • As Political Dumb-Wits Beat the Drums of War: Keep Commodities Front and Centre
    By James Cooper

    In today’s edition, James Cooper looks at the growing hostilities between Pakistan and India through the lens of the commodity cycle. And why it could matter more than most think.

  • The share market bears have no answer to this…
    By Callum Newman

    I came across a handy bit of info from Wilson Asset Management yesterday. Wilson says that there’s strong demand for Chinese assets despite the recent volatility and trade tensions. Why do we care? There could be profit in this.

  • The method in Trump’s tariff madness
    By Jim Rickards

    Trump is pursuing a twenty-first-century version of what was originally known as the American System. A system that made America great in the first place.

Primary Sidebar

Latest Articles

  • As Political Dumb-Wits Beat the Drums of War: Keep Commodities Front and Centre
  • The share market bears have no answer to this…
  • The method in Trump’s tariff madness
  • The first place to look thanks to the US/China truce
  • The trade war is over. Tax cut chaos is next.

Footer

Fat Tail Daily Logo
YouTube
Facebook
x (formally twitter)
LinkedIn

About

Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.

Go beyond conventional investing strategies with unique ideas and actionable opportunities. Our expert editors deliver conviction-led insights to guide your financial journey.

Quick Links

Subscribe

About

FAQ

Terms and Conditions

Financial Services Guide

Privacy Policy

Get in Touch

Contact Us

Email: support@fattail.com.au

Phone: 1300 667 481

All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.

Fat Tail Logo

Fat Tail Daily is brought to you by the team at Fat Tail Investment Research

Copyright © 2025 Fat Tail Daily | ACN: 117 765 009 / ABN: 33 117 765 009 / ASFL: 323 988