The Aussie government is discussing changes to the CGT discount.

That might explain some of the relatively muted reactions to earnings season across the market today.

Taxes only ever go up, it seems.

Meanwhile, across the Pacific, Trump has been dealt a blow to his favourite financial lever.

The US Supreme Court has ruled that his sweeping emergency tariffs breached federal law, knocking out a key plank of his go‑it‑alone trade strategy.

It also opens the door to refund claims that could run into the hundreds of billions.

As a response, he’s scrambling to re‑impose smaller, time‑limited tariffs under different legal provisions.

For a long time, the tariffs were Washington’s way of picking winners and losers in the market.

But if Washington can’t easily pick winners and losers, Wall Street’s money should naturally look down the stack of stocks they trade to the real economy.

That is where the demand lives – particularly when it comes to AI.

That means factories, grids, mines, and the raw inputs they need.

Main Street thrives when money flows to these areas.

So Main Street’s looming gain is Wall Street’s to lose if the focus doesn’t shift.

The upshot of all this is to
me on word: commodities

Gold keeps pushing higher and higher.

Silver got a big bounce today.

And there’s this:

Source: Market Index

BHP’s market cap is quietly sneaking up on CBA’s market cap.

That shows you at the top end of the index, the big money is quickly coalescing around commodities.

When money walks off the
screen and into the ground

The US is watching its main ‘financial engineering’ lever on trade get clipped by its own Supreme Court.

At the same time, the macro backdrop is a ‘run it hot’ economy where re‑industrialisation, AI data centres and defence spending are lifting demand for energy, copper, and niche critical minerals.

Major investment houses now explicitly call commodities a top investment theme for 2026, pointing to structural under‑investment in supply and bullish targets for gold and copper.

Australian miners are already being positioned as beneficiaries, with expectations that big super funds will rotate from financials into resources.

That money should eventually slide down into small-caps and micro-caps.

(Although the latter has been struggling of late, I’m convinced the shift will come)

Even oil, gas and coal look set to play catch‑up.

Again, copper and battery metals ride electrification and AI build‑out themes.

While gold sits in the middle as an insurance policy on fiscal experiments and monetary pushback.

If you’re looking for small cap commodity stocks that could benefit from the Main St shift inthe global commodity race, read this.

It’s my big investment thesis about how the AI buildout requires hard assets.