US Dollar Ready to Explode

The biggest news this week is that Trump’s man, Fed Chairman Warsh, has abandoned the Fed’s easing bias, and nine committee members expect rates to rise at least once by the end of the year to contain inflation.

It is interesting to note that Warsh himself refused to predict future interest rates.

He thinks the Fed has overcommunicated in the past, so it looks like the Fed under Warsh will be a different beast for the market to deal with.

Of course, all eyes turn to the US Dollar Index [TVC:DXY], which is nudging up against major resistance at 101.00.

A breakout above there could see a sharp rally after a year of shaking up the coke bottle between 95.00-100.00.

That has ramifications for gold, silver, and Bitcoin.

Gold has suffered a sharp correction, but could fall further if support fails to hold. Silver also looks dangerous if support at US$60 gives way.

I suspect there is some offshore selling in the S&P/ASX 200 [ASX:XJO]. Overnight markets saw heavy selling pressure, and the day session has also seen the ASX 200 down heavily despite strong offshore leads from the US.

Perhaps investors think the Aussie dollar has topped out for now, so they are repatriating some funds to the US.

Our economy is certainly heading in the wrong direction if the horrific budget gets passed. The concessions announced this week by Labor are a joke and leave the investment-killing tax rates on the table.

I continue to watch each weekend’s property sales figures like a hawk. I am wondering how long it will take for vendors to cross the spread and hit the bid, rather than withdrawing from the sale.

The ASX 200 has been treading water for the past year. The banks look toppy, and the Aussie dollar may be in for a fall, with commodities also under pressure if the US dollar takes off.

Perhaps we will eventually bust below the 8,400 level I discussed in previous Closing Bells (currently 8,830).

Poor Charlie is sick as a dog in bed, so we wish him a speedy recovery. Lachy and I discuss all of the above in today’s Closing Bell, and also check out oil after the sharp correction.

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Closing Bell