Melt-up?
Or meltdown?
It’s a million-dollar question, because so much rides on getting the answer right.
Previous major meltdowns have resulted in crashes in the following 12 months of 30% (1987), 40% (2000), and 50% (2008).
What might the horrible figure be when the Everything Bubble ends?
It’s clear to all but a few that a meltdown in asset prices will come…eventually.
They always follow booms, like night follows day.
The question is, how much, if any, melt-UP is there before this happens?
And on that, opinion remains divided.
Here at The Daily Reckoning Australia, divided opinion is what brings us together.
One day of the week there’s an extremely credible argument for the melt-up lasting well into the middle of this decade.
If that turns out to be true, there are huge new gains to come. The best gains in the whole cycle.
Another day, an editor might give you a middle ground prognosis…where there is still upside to be had. But it’s limited to 6–12 months and say 5–20% in further price rises.
That markets are approaching a devastating and IMMINENT crash — 50%, 60%, or even higher.
This view seems to be gaining traction among a host of outspoken but high-profile investors.
Billionaire traders Leon Cooperman, Stanley Druckenmiller, and Jeffrey Gundlach, Shark Tank star Kevin O’Leary, market prophet Gary Shilling, Rich Dad Poor Dad guy Robert Kiyosaki, Michael Burry, and Jeremy Grantham.
All of them think the era of rampant speculation is about to end in spectacular fashion.
Now, are those high-profile names reason for you to be worried?
Or, conversely…
Are they contrarian indicators the market is on sound footing…and we’re going to see another year of gains in 2022?
This is a case where you need to gather as much knowledge as you can…
And make your own call
It’s an important call.
Because if the bears are right…the stakes are very, very high.
If you’ve not seen it already, Vern Gowdie has nailed his colours to the mast with this new strategy report.
His take is pretty stark:
Whether it happens soon, or sometime next year, the cycle is about to turn.
Signs are everywhere that government stimulus programs will find it harder and harder to shore up asset prices.
The first time they try to use their special power and it doesn’t work, the losses will be epic.
These four assets will lead the way down.
The window to do something meaningful to protect your capital is closing.
Here’s a five-part plan to do that.
To find out his reasoning for all that, click on the links above.
But I’d just like to briefly address the issue of trust.
Who is Vern, and why should you trust him with such a huge decision?
Well, short answer is you shouldn’t entirely trust ANYONE.
You should gather as much information from credible sources as you can, and make your own call.
But in terms of credibility — so you know that Vern is the real deal and not some carnival barking doom-monger — here are some words from his regular readers…
‘I researched and listened to Vern’s advice and 35 years of saving has been salvaged. I would NEVER be able to make that up again!’
N J F King
‘He is a fountain of good investment knowledge and wisdom, constant encouragement to stay the course and a friend in times of need (even though I never met him). I am sure he is a big reason why (as my close friends often point out) I am lucky to be doing quite well.’
Marcel
‘He has seen it all and has the courage and the experience to stay the distance. He has a plan and follows it. I now have a plan. Thank you, Vern.’
Chris
‘Few other commentators are as open and frank as Vern and his advice has been something I have followed with confidence and anticipate when the pin pricks the bubble, I will feel even more confident to have followed his sensible advice.’
T Holroyd
‘I have shared with my family Vern’s comments and facts regarding the inevitable financial market collapse. Gratefully most have positioned themselves to guard against the downturn.’
Shane D A
‘I follow Vern’s instructions to the letter and would walk over broken glass if he suggested it.’
Neil Sweetman
‘I don’t always like your advice, but then again, I don’t always like my medicine. Many thanks Vern, you have helped me maintain my capital at a very difficult time.’
DH, Tasmania
‘His wisdom on all financial matters is impeccable. I have also been able to prepare myself for any future investment especially in the current situation we are facing today.’
Adrian Metzeling
‘Vern is one of my main high-level information counsellors in understanding market activity; he is not too radical nor overly conservative… His writings continue, as always, to be an inspiration as well as a valuable resource to me as a market investor.’
SB, Brisbane
‘Any investment journey should be guided by a range of trusted voices…and for me Vern is one of those trusted voices.’
Harold M
‘The world of investing is full of challenges currently and I believe Vern has a stable and longer term balanced view. Preservation of capital should be front of mind for every investor. That is Vern’s mantra.’
Gordon B
Above all, what Vern believes is that, until the crash arrives — and even during it — the investment industry will use every trick in the book to keep you in the markets.
They will change what they promise you…and pivot to terms like ‘safe and secure’, ‘guaranteed income’, ‘low volatility’, ‘defensive assets’, etc.
They will make out that you’re stupid for wanting assets like cash, gold, and index funds — which also happen to have the lowest fee structures. Funny that!
They will continue to say that they’re working for you…instead of themselves.
They will likely pump an even bigger portion of the fees they extract from you into marketing campaigns to convince you to stay in an increasingly unstable market.
They will continue to create the illusion that highly priced professional management delivers superior performance…when all the data shows that’s just not true…
In short:
Whether it’s a melt-up or meltdown, the investment industry will do everything possible to maintain its influence over your life.
You need to resist that at all costs.
You can start the resistance by reading this.
Regards,
 |
James Woodburn,
Publisher, The Daily Reckoning Australia
PS: Our publication The Daily Reckoning is a fantastic place to start your investment journey. We talk about the big trends driving the most innovative stocks on the ASX. Learn all about it here.
