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Today is COLLISION DAY. (Everything changes from here…)

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By Lachlann Tierney, Wednesday, 18 February 2026

A new investment thesis from Lachlann Tierney. This is Pax Silica.

Today, Wednesday, 18 February 2026, is a very important day.

I’m finally releasing an investment thesis that has been years in the making.

The ideas behind it were common threads of thought dating back to childhood.

But something properly clicked in me a few months ago when I saw one specific headline.

I think it could radically transform your investing fortunes in an increasingly chaotic world.

This investment thesis is going to guide the majority of my working hours, investment recommendations and research time for the next 2-3 years minimum.

I am all in.

Today I show you why… and five initial asset reallocations I think you should consider making right now. If not today… when markets open tomorrow.

Before we get to this investment thesis,
here’s an important prologue…

Humanity has experienced great ‘collisions’ before.

But none like the one we’re stepping into in 2026.

We are entering an era where multiple global forces are colliding.

With a single bottleneck: minerals.

I believe this unique collision point is about to reprice a whole bunch of assets. All around the world. But particularly here in Australia.

Let me explain…

In the Second Industrial Revolution, we saw a great collision.

Railroads. Cheap steel. Coal-fired electricity.

As a result, a third collision point came into play out of nowhere…

Truly global finance.

Everything locked together. Each collision point amplifying the others.

Creating a self-reinforcing boom in energy, infrastructure and industrial capacity.

Rail mileage in the United States tripled between 1860 and 1880 and then tripled again by 1920.

Opening enormous new markets for coal and steel in the process.

Electrification then collided with this phenomenon.

Transforming production, labour and urban life, and helping to drive a dramatic shift of workers out of agriculture and into industry.

This was not a story of “an invention” or “a discovery”.

It was a story of COLLISION

Multiple general-purpose technologies maturing at roughly the same time.

Drawing on the same pool of raw materials, capital and political attention.

And together creating an age of extraordinary growth.

There were exceptional gains for those who got into the right assets early in this historic collision point.

Today, right now, as you read this…

An even greater collision is taking place.

It entails four, much bigger structural forces.

All smashing into each other at the same time.

  • A decades‑long underinvestment in mining capacity
  • A heating resource “cold war” between the United States and China
  • The capital‑intensive, metal‑hungry green energy transition

And the giant ‘Fat Tail’ event hanging over all of it…

  • The sudden arrival of artificial intelligence as a genuine, system-level disruptor…

Individually, any one of these could plausibly support a powerful bull market in certain commodities and stocks.

COMBINED…

They form the ULTIMATE collision investment opportunity.

In my opinion, there’s no way you
(or even your kids) will see an early
investment opportunity quite like this…

What I’m talking about in the investment thesis I’m about to share with you is a regime shift in how the world values and secures the physical foundations of its digital and decarbonised ambitions.

For investors…

…especially those willing to take on geological, jurisdictional and development risk…

…this collision opportunity could mean gains on a scale that make even the China-led iron ore boom of the 2000s look parochial.

Australia, with its concentration of high-quality resource stocks sits near the centre of this collision story.

I have been hypnotized by this collision event for years.

Now it appears to be actually happening.

And I have some stocks for you.

For the full story… and to hear about these stocks… watch this.

Regards,

Lachlann Tierney,
Australian Small-Cap Investigator and Fat Tail Micro-Caps

***

Murray’s Chart of the Day – Copper

By Murray Dawes, Wednesday, 18 February 2026

Source: TradingView

[Click to open in a new window]

I have high hopes for copper this year, but recent price action has seen copper slip sliding to the downside after a sharp spike in the price to a new all-time high three weeks ago.

It is worth keeping an eye on because copper is notorious for having false breakouts (FBO).

A false breakout occurs when prices shoot above a former major high but then quickly reverse direction.

It is often the beginning of a sharp sell-off that shakes new bulls out of positions.

I have traced out four false breakouts in copper since 2021.

The first one saw copper prices plummet into a long-term downtrend after the false breakout.

The next three just saw the price of copper fall to retest the long-term moving averages within a long-term uptrend.

If we see copper close below US$5.67/lb this month, it will confirm a monthly sell pivot, which would increase the odds that a correction towards the long-term moving averages may be on the cards.

But due to my long-term bullish thesis on copper I think a fall like that would be a buying opportunity.

Regards,

Murray Dawes,
Retirement Trader and International Stock Trader

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

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Lachlann Tierney
Lachlann ‘Lachy’ Tierney is passionate about uncovering hidden opportunities in the microcap sector. With four years of experience as a senior equities analyst at one of Australia’s leading microcap firms, he has built a reputation for rigorous research, deep-dive due diligence, and accessible investor communications. Over this time, he has vetted seed, pre-IPO and ASX-listed companies across sectors, conducted onsite visits, and built strong relationships across the microcap space. Lachy is nearing completion of a PhD in economics at RMIT University, where his research focuses on blockchain governance and voting systems. His work was housed within the Blockchain Innovation Hub at RMIT, a leading research centre for crypto-economics and blockchain research. He holds a Master’s degree from the London School of Economics and an Honours BA in Philosophy and Politics from the University of Melbourne. Born in New York and raised in California, Lachy grew up a few blocks from biotech giant Amgen and counts among his peers various characters in the overlapping worlds of venture capital, technology and crypto. When he’s not researching microcaps, he’s most likely sweating it out in a sauna or dunking himself in cold Tasmanian water.

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All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.

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