I don’t know about you, but I for one am counting down the days to the end of 2023.
It’s been a struggle for everyone.
I have mates with monthly mortgage payments that are squeezing them so hard they might pop.
When I head to Woolies for a few things I can’t believe how much it costs. $3 for a red capsicum…are you kidding me?
Making money in the stock market hasn’t just been hard, it’s been as close to impossible as it gets.
If you made money this year trading, I take my hat off to you. My overall goal has been to keep my head down as much as possible, to avoid getting it shot off.
While the biggest stocks in the market have seen support, the smaller end has seen relentless selling pressure. Uranium has been strong and I’m glad I got members of my trading services long uranium at the right time.
But apart from that, it’s been an uphill battle every step of the way.
So good riddance to 2023 is all I can say and let’s hope next year looks nothing like this one.
Due to the dead markets at the moment, I thought it would be useful in today’s Closing Bell video to show you the Commitment of Traders (COT) data in various futures markets.
You can find charts of the data here.
The data is released on a Friday and shows market positioning by various participants on the Tuesday prior to the data release.
When markets move sharply, it can be valuable to know that leveraged funds have been covering short positions or dealers have been adding to longs.
Like anything it’s not a magic bullet, but it does help to firm up a view.
The interesting thing to note from the data in relation to the strong rally we have seen in the S&P 500 over the past few weeks is that the big players haven’t been adjusting their positioning that much.
Asset managers haven’t increased their longs by much, leveraged funds have been increasing their shorts and dealers remain quite short and haven’t been covering those positions.
So it looks like many of the big players don’t believe the hype.
Seven stocks in the S&P 500 account for most of the rally that we have seen, so market breadth isn’t great.
Just like in Australia, when you look beneath the surface it ain’t pretty.
The path of bonds over the coming months will decide the fate of stocks, so I have a look at the COT data in the 10-year and 30-year bonds in today’s video as well.
So check out today’s Closing Bell video and don’t forget to ‘like’ the video on YouTube if you want to make my day.
Editor, Fat Tail Daily