The Lassonde Curve: How it Aligns Your Investment Timing

In April 2024, a tiny explorer called Australian Gold and Copper announced a significant new greenfield discovery.

High grades of gold and silver at depth. The company called it a ‘bonanza.’ The market loved it.

The stock jumped from 7 cents to 61 cents within days.

Today?

It trades at just 15 cents.

No ore has been mined. Drilling continues. Cash reserves are low.

It’s still up 100% if you got in before the ‘bonanza’ news drop. But two years later, anyone who bought the subsequent run-up to 61 cents is still stuck in a financial hole.

This kind of thing happens a lot.

In my experience, most investors buy mining stocks at exactly the wrong time.

They chase the discovery. They pile in when the drill results hit the front page. Then they watch the stock drift lower for years while the company does the boring work.

Studies. Permits. Funding.

The stock goes nowhere. They sell in frustration. And they miss the biggest gains of all.

There is a better way.

A Canadian mining legend figured it out decades ago…

The Lassonde Curve ‘Cheat’ Code

Pierre Lassonde built Franco-Nevada from a $2 million grub stake into a $30 billion gold royalty giant.

Along the way, he spotted a pattern in how junior mining stocks behave. Humbly enough, he called it the Lassonde Curve.

Here’s how it works.

A junior miner finds something big. The stock spikes. Then the company spends years on studies and permits. The stock drifts lower. Investors get bored and sell.

The stock hits a low during the funding and construction phase. Lassonde called this the “orphan period.”

Then, as the mine gets built and first production approaches, the stock re-rates. Hard.

The curve looks like a smile. High on discovery. Low during construction. High again at production.

De Grey Mining is the textbook case

The company found the Hemi gold deposit in 2020. The stock ran from 5 cents to over $1. Then the market lost interest.

For two years, the stock drifted back to 70 cents while De Grey did its studies. Then Northern Star came knocking with a $5 billion takeover. The stock hit $2.46. Investors who bought during the orphan period made a fortune.

Bellevue Gold followed the same path.

The stock ran from 20 cents to $1.50 on discovery. It fell to 60 cents during construction. Then it re-rated past $2.00 as first gold poured in 2024.

This pattern repeats. Over and over.

But as legendary commodity trader Ed Sekoya famously stated:

‘You need to know when to break the rules too.’

We’re in one of those times…

Why the Curve Has Shifted

Here’s the problem.

The Lassonde Curve assumes a normal market. We do not have one.

Gold trades at A$4,47 an ounce. Copper sits near record highs. ASX mining juniors raised a record $10 billion in 2025. The December quarter alone saw $5.63 billion flow into small-cap miners. That’s more than any quarter in 13 years.

In this environment, the orphan period barely exists. Stocks that should drift lower are going straight up.

I recently looked at five ASX juniors that announced a feasibility study or funding package in the past 12 months.

Every single one is up.

Rox Resources is up 25% since its November DFS. Ausgold is up 48% since December. Brightstar is up 12% since February. Caravel Minerals is up 40%. Orion Minerals is up 15%.

The curve says these stocks should have dipped first. They did not. The bull market is overriding the pattern.

So, what’s the play?

The Lassonde Curve still works. But you need to adjust it for market conditions.

Right now, the orphan period is shorter. The dip is shallower. The re-rating comes faster.

So, the best time to buy a mining stock today is when three things line up.

Firstly, the company has secured funding. That removes the biggest risk.

Secondly, the commodity price is in a bull market. That provides the tailwind. And it’s crucial to breaking Lassonde’s usual orphan period ‘drift’ stage.

Thirdly, the market has not re-rated the stock yet. That’s where the upside lives.

Of course, as a geologist, I also use my knowledge to look for the early pre-discovery plays too.

I mean, if you can get into an Australian Gold and Copper type stock early, you can make very quick gains if it hits pay dirt on the drill bit.

And given the tax changes we discussed last week, it makes a lot of sense going forward to trade the whole curve.

The pre-discovery, the ‘orphan’ period, and the re-rate.

[Editor’s Note: That’s exactly what we do in my Premium Advisory service – Mining: Phase One. Click here for more information on that.]

But one rule remains iron-clad for mining investors, no matter what.

The best time to buy is not when everyone is talking about it.

It’s when the market is bored, funding is secured, and the bull market is about to do the heavy lifting for you.

That’s the ideal setup in any market.