If you’re ever after a classic investment book, don’t go for The Intelligent Investor…go for The Investment Biker instead.
Yes, I know, Warren Buffett likes to wax lyrical about Ben Graham’s security book. I’m sure it was a hot read back in the 1950s. As far as I remember, it was kind of boring.
Personally, I prefer Jim Rogers’s tales of travelling the world on his motorbike from about 1995.
Have you heard of Investment Biker?
Here’s the background…
Jim got rich between 1970-1980 running a hedge fund with George Soros. He was retired by 37.
Jim then indulged his passion for travel, going around the world multiple times.
To be clear, Jim did this before low-cost airlines and advanced telecommunications were available. China was still a global backwater…and the Soviet Union had just gone kaput.
The book is over 25 years old now, and shows a different world. Jim had no internet or mobile to follow along with world markets as he travelled.
You see…
As Jim travelled on his motorbike throughout the book, he observes the countries as he sees it…and scouts for investment opportunities.
Why am I mentioning this?
Because I’m trying it out myself!
I’ve done a bit of travel in Europe lately (ok, not on a motorbike, but on the ground still).
Two countries I’ve visited are Spain and Greece.
I’ve been going to Spain for 20 years. This is my first time to Greece.
Let me share what I’ve seen…
But before I do, here’s some context.
Back in 2012, Fat Tail held an investment conference. One of the presenters was a consultant who made a good living off the ‘BRICS’ concept.
The term BRICS came from a Goldman Sachs report, pitching the big growth potential of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
In 2012, the US was still shaking from the GFC. The majority of the investment community was writing off the US as a has been.
Plenty of Americans considered this quite true, and concepts like the BRICS held a certain appeal.
Certainly, various investment funds and consultants were happy to take your money if you found that a winning concept.
Why invest in broken America when Brazil had better demographics, lots of oil and…actually, these days, I can’t remember the rest of the supposed appeal. Cocoa beans?
Why am I telling you this? The BRICS concept turned out to be a bunch of bullshit.
There’s been a massive bull market in US stocks. It’s still in it now.
Brazil? Nobody in the financial world gives a stuff about Brazil these days.
Chinese stocks are a dud and have been for years. Foreign investors are ditching the place.
Russia? Any shares held there after the Ukraine invasion would have seen a catastrophic collapse.
India – yes, India has done ok.
My point is that the finance industry is always happy to package up a concept if it means attracting funds under management.
The question is always whether the idea is valid. By the time it becomes marketable, you’re probably too late, or at least not early.
Some sort of catchy acronym is always handy too for it to catch on with the average Joe (BRICS, PIIG, FANG).
However, it’s hard to tell from Australia what IS going on around the world.
Maybe Brazil is a hot opportunity today. I can’t say – never having been there.
In other words, you can’t rely on a third hand view of overseas opportunities. You need to check things out for yourself!
(By the way, as a general rule, I prefer investing in Australia or the US. There’s abundant opportunity in both, and not the same geopolitical risks elsewhere. Jim and I differ there, as he loves foreign markets.)
However, today I am channelling the spirit of the Investment Biker.
What looks intriguing, at least?
What I can tell you is that Spain has never looked so good to me!
I was there in 2012 after the GFC. It was down in the dumps. Unfinished projects were all over the place. The people were in the streets protesting.
Today, the place is bustling. There’s clearly wealth creation going on. It’s clean. There are high-speed trains. Tourism is booming. Madrid is now one of the hottest property markets in Europe.
The euro is strong, giving the Spanish a higher buying power than they might otherwise have. There’s links to South America via their common language.
Were I truly the Investment Biker, I’d be quite happy to consider investing in Spain. I can see for myself the positive change happening there.
What about Greece?
I can’t see myself putting money in Greece. It’s much more rundown than Spain, at least in the parts I saw. Bits of Athens are empty shops everywhere.
All my life I’ve heard about the wondrous Greek islands. I’m sure some are astonishing.
However…
Over in Crete, where I went, there is an astonishing number of half-built buildings, empty lots and abandoned projects. The city of Heraklion has a shabby charm like Naples.
I can only assume this is all part of the disastrous legacy of 2008.
I’m not having a crack at the Greek people. It seems the austerity imposed on the place since the EU crisis is still hurting.
I’m not pretending to be an expert here, either. All I’m sharing is what I’ve seen with my eyes. Spain looks polished, and Greece looks a little rough.
Both may be in Europe, but clearly there’s a difference here.
One wonders too, how much Greece’s tourism trades on fading European economic momentum.
After all, the rich today are forming in India, China and Singapore now.
Where do Asians dream for their dose of beach and sun and good fish?
I’m not sure Greece is one of their choices. But maybe the next global hot beach spots are in Vietnam and Malaysia and Sri Lanka.
I can’t tell you right now. The only way to know is to go there and see for myself.
Best,
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Callum Newman,
Editor, Small-Cap Systems and Australian Small-Cap Investigator
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