Part I: Special Copper Edition

Copper is at an important juncture, yet few are paying attention.

Most dismiss copper’s strong run in 2025 as simply the ‘tariff effect’ destined to ‘unwind soon.’ And become another ‘false break-out.’

Now, if you’re a long-term reader, you’ll know I’ve been bullish on the copper market for a long time. My analysis of copper is not fleeting.

So, how should we digest copper’s bullish set-up right now?

First, it’s important to recognise the major divergence achieved by copper this year.

As you probably know, the market leaders, Mag 7 tech stocks, have tumbled in March.

Meanwhile, the stoic US S&P500 index began to look wobbly for the first time in years.

The ASX200 formally entered correction territory in Australia earlier in the month after pulling back around 10% from its highs.

Some commentators boldly claimed that the March sell-off was set to trigger a major stock market crash—on a scale not seen since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

But as I told my paid readership group at the height of the ‘March panic’, this wasn’t the time to sell, especially not resource stocks.

Earlier this month, I issued a buy alert for my premium members at Mining Phase One, leveraging our exposure into two copper juniors.

I did the same for my readers at Diggers & Drillers, doubling down on two copper producers.

So, why did we use the market fear in March to our advantage?

Well, as I detailed to my paid readership group throughout the market sell-off, Dr Copper, the Professor of Economics—a bellwether for global growth… was teaching investors a valuable lesson.

This was NOT the time to panic sell.

If global growth was set to collapse as many feared, then why was the world’s most important ‘growth commodity’ surging in 2025?

Yes, tariffs and record volumes of copper imports into the US are helping drive prices higher.

That means there is potential for a pullback as this short-term tailwind begins to unwind.

But in my mind, that could be an important buying opportunity.

It’s important to understand that copper prices were rising weeks before the looming tariff effect drove copper imports into the US.

That suggests something else is potentially happening in the copper market. Later in the week, we’ll unpack some of those reasons.

As I told my paid readership group earlier in the month, I’ve been watching the copper market for a long time, and I’ve never seen a divergence like this.

Dr Copper’s outperformance (purple) against major market indices this year is hugely telling. But, again, few are paying attention:

But here’s another interesting aspect of copper’s bullish outperformance in 2025… The metal is now staging a potential break into new all-time highs:

Will Momentum Continue AFTER the Tariff Deadline?

It’s important to note that copper made a major milestone last week, recording its highest price ever on the benchmark COMEX exchange.

Importantly, though, this does not confirm copper’s technical break-out.

You see, copper has tested its all-time high from 2011 several times in recent years—in 2021, 2022, and 2024.

Each time, it failed to gain momentum above the 2011 top.

This remains a critical level, a price ceiling that’s reversed prior momentum in the copper market several times.

But as copper again tries to make its ‘big move’ above the 2011 top, the timing is intensely interesting…

Some readers might recall that copper made a multi-year breakout precisely 20 years ago, catapulting through its 1980s and mid-1990s resistance levels.

That break began in June 2005, shown as the green circle above.

And from there, copper surged a historic 140% in as little as 18 months!

The timing of today’s price action shows some similarities to this milestone in 2005.

Don’t get me wrong, copper’s ‘break-out’ is certainly not assured from here… but there are reasons separating today’s price action from the previous ‘false breaks’ that occurred in 2021, 2022, and 2024.

For one thing, the market is scarcely paying attention.

That starkly contrasts with 2022 and 2024, when headlines went hyperbolic as copper approached its 2011 top and briefly surpassed it.

But another key factor is copper’s strong divergence from the rest of the market this year.

As I showed you, copper futures on the COMEX are up almost 30% year-to-date, while most major market indices sit in the red.

Today’s setup is far more appealing than one, two, or three years ago when headlines speculated on copper’s imminent surge.

Looking Back on 2005

But perhaps the most important takeaway if we reflect on 2005 and the potential set-up today, is the impact on junior mining stocks.

Copper’s historic breakout in 2005 sparked broad speculation in the resource market. The green light, if you will.

Like today’s market, junior mining stocks were stuck in a prolonged bear market despite elevated commodity prices.

But that changed rapidly over 2005 and 2006 on the back of copper’s historic rise.

So, are we nearing similar conditions twenty years on?

It’s certainly worth investigating.

On Wednesday, I’ll unpack this setup further and examine some of the less visible factors driving the copper price higher in 2025.

Regards,

James Cooper,
Editor, Mining: Phase One and Diggers and Drillers

P.S. If you’re looking to gain exposure to a potential ‘2005-like event’, be sure to check out my dedicated advisory service that holds several BUY recommendations on copper plays listed on the ASX and overseas.