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Commodities

Still Time to Add Second-Tier Copper Stocks

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By James Cooper, Wednesday, 28 January 2026

Supply disruption in 2025, helping to drive copper prices higher this year… Look for the second-tier players to maximise returns

If you’re a long-term Mining Memo reader, you’ll know we’ve covered factors affecting the copper market.

Like this from last year, highlighting the conditions that could set up tighter supply in 2026 and a bullish price action:

Two months ago, on September 8 [2025], approximately 800,000 tons of mud slid into an underground portion of the Grasberg mine.

Located in Indonesia, this is one of the world’s largest copper mines.

Tragically, it killed several workers who were trapped by the immense mud-fall that flooded a section of the underground block.

The mine operator, Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX), immediately suspended operations, declaring ‘force majeure,’ releasing the operator from contractual obligations in supplying copper to its customers.

The Grasberg mine produced 816,466 tonnes of copper in 2024. That makes it the world’s second-largest copper mine.

An operation that accounts for around 4% of total global supply.

However, as I explained, that wasn’t the only major copper mine disaster that could affect supply in the months to come:

… on February 18, 2025…

A tailings dam at a copper mine in Zambia, owned by the Chinese state-owned firm Sino Metals, collapsed suddenly.

Some sources state that up to 1.5 million tonnes of toxic, acidic sludge was poured into a major river system in Zambia, the Kafue River.

The spill caused extensive environmental damage, including river contamination, fish die-offs, and disruptions to water and irrigation supplies for millions of residents across Zambia.

The company (and authorities) now face the looming prospect of major pushback against any future copper mine developments.

This in a place that was supposed to be a critically important jurisdiction for future copper supply.

So, what was the potential outcome?

2025 was the year of copper mine disasters. Inevitably, that would put pressure on prices in the months ahead.

A potential catalyst for investors to look at this sector.

Except those two examples of supply disruption only scratched the surface…

On May 18, 2025, a seismic event struck another major copper project… The prized Kakula mine in the DRC, owned by Ivanhoe Mines (TSX: IVN).

Extensive flooding forced the company to suspend operations.

In response, Ivanhoe’s share price collapsed almost 50 per cent from its highs.

A major copper operation, the Kakula complex, produced approximately 437,000 tonnes of copper in 2024.

And one more example!

The world’s LARGEST underground copper mine in Chile… El Teniente… was also hit by a significant incident last year.

In July 2025, a 4.2-magnitude earthquake struck approximately 500 meters underground, causing a portion of the tunnel to collapse.

Six workers died.

In response, the world’s largest copper producer (Codelco) suspended operations.

Is the Market Responding?

As I explained, from Indonesia and the DRC to Zambia, to the world’s largest copper-producing nation, Chile…

There had been an unprecedented number of mine disasters in the copper mining industry in 2025.

After copper futures tumbled in mid-2025, prices have steadily recovered. In fact, the price of copper is now back to all-time new highs.

But certain producers that escaped the mining catastrophes from last year have performed far better…

The large-cap North American copper play, Southern Copper [NYSE: SCCO], has more than doubled in value since mid-2025.

Clearly, the market is rewarding pure-play copper producers that can generate large volumes and maintain stable output.

A rare feature in today’s copper market.

And while the big names like Southern Copper may have already catapulted higher, second-tier names still offer an opportunity for investors looking to gain exposure to this metal.

This is all part of a series that I recently filmed with my publisher, James Woodburn.

If you’d like to access it, you can do so here.

Until next time.

Regards,

James Cooper,
Mining: Phase One and Diggers and Drillers

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

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James Cooper

James Cooper has been a working geologist in mines across Australia, Canada, and Africa since the early 2000s. He’s led the operations of tiny explorers through to huge producer outfits. He’s seen booms and busts firsthand and he also understands the cyclical nature of individual commodities. For example, James was right there when Barrick Gold launched an enormous $7.5 billion takeover bid for Equinox. That was the peak of the last cycle.

With his background as a geo and finance professional, he brings a unique insight and experience to Fat Tail Investment Research. He writes the broader resource-focused investing letter Diggers and Drillers and the ultra-speculative explorer-focused trading service Mining: Phase One.

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All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.

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