Reflation Trade or Fed Takeover?

By Murray Dawes, Friday, 09 January 2026

More commodities start to run as gold and silver explode higher. Small caps are also flying. But are they just playing catch-up to the Magnificent 7? Is it a sign of better growth ahead or just fears that the new US Fed Chairman will lower rates too far? Charlie and Murray assess the state of play as we head into 2026.

I hope you enjoyed the three-part trader education series we released over the Christmas break.

If you didn’t have time to watch them, be sure to check them out:

Once you have scrubbed up on the theory, you will be able to follow along with my chart analysis without the furrowed eyebrows.

I also hope you have been paying attention over the past year as I pointed out various commodities that looked ready to run.

Regular Closing Bell viewers should be well-positioned in copper, uranium, rare earths, lithium, and platinum group metals (PGMs).

They have all been flying over the Christmas break and look ready to move higher as the rally in commodities broadens.

In today’s Closing Bell, we check out some of the base metals that have been in the doldrums for years but are finally perking up.

Aluminium, zinc, and even nickel have started moving.

Perhaps it is a sign of better economic times ahead, as small caps also play some serious catch-up.

There could also be a monetary angle as we head towards a new US Fed chairperson in the next few months.

If the new pick is a Trump yes-man (or woman), we may see further interest rate cuts, and the US economy could run hot into the mid-term elections.

A weak US dollar could light a fire under commodities generally.

Whatever the cause, there is no doubting the uplift in the commodities sector and the prospect of more rises ahead.

Stocks in general are nudging up against all-time highs and trending, so there is no option but to go with the flow and hope the good times continue.

So I hope you enjoy the first Closing Bell of 2026 and that I can continue to show you the power of my trading model to capture great gains.

Be sure to leave us a like and a comment on YouTube if you killed it in 2025 and managed to load up on the commodities mentioned above.

YouTube player

Regards,

Murray Dawes,
Retirement Trader, International Stock Trader and
Murray’s Trading Room

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

Comments

Subscribe

2 Comments

Inline Feedbacks

View all comments

Murray Dawes is our resident expert trader and portfolio manager. He is a former Sydney Futures Exchange floor trader who went on to design custom trading systems and strategies for ultra-wealthy clients (including one of Australia’s richest families). Today, his mission is to help ordinary Aussie investors make profitable investments, while expertly managing risk.

He uses his proprietary system for his more conversative and longer-term-focused service Retirement Trader…and then applies the same system to the ultra-speculative end of the Australian market in Fat Tail Microcaps (this service is strictly limited and via invitation only).

Murray’s Premium Subscriptions

Retirement Trader

The Great Race Just Docked in Melbourne
By Charlie Ormond

Aussies are fleeing volatile fuel prices for Chinese EV’s. But the promise of independence runs on a supply chain that leads straight to Beijing. For now.
Rise or fall? Understanding the relationship between the gold price, war and inflation
By Brian Chu

Confused about why gold is falling instead of rising while there’s a war between US, Israel and Iran? Read this to unpack the dynamics of gold, war and inflation, and the missing crucial component to steer gold’s rise or fall.
Don’t Sleep on ‘Boring’ Tech
By Paul Dichiera

The strongest AI-backed companies hide in the market’s dullest corners. They're businesses too boring to disrupt. Think Hotel booking, accounts and payroll, freight management.

All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.