Rare Earth Wars: Myanmar Holds the Key

There was once a time when US diplomatic visits tended to focus on the big nation-states: France, Germany, or the UK.

It went something like this…

A US President would fly to Europe on Air Force One. They’d deliver a kindly spoken and heavily scripted speech. Have dinner in some historic European ballroom, raise a few glasses, then head back home.

It was all handshakes and champagne. Dinners, suits, and galas with royal families. A show of strength between long-term allies.

But as far as I can tell, that show’s ending.

US diplomacy has a very different flavour in this current era.

And it doesn’t matter whether it’s a Republican or Democrat; both sides of the political divide are trending in this same direction.

What do I mean?

Back in December 2024, despite he’s lack of vigour, President Biden made the arduous journey across the Atlantic to a small, hot, dusty backwater country called Angola.

A poor African nation-state sitting along the continent’s West Coast. Most people would struggle to find it on a map.

Nevertheless, despite Biden’s tight schedule (and need to conserve cognitive capacity), he became the first-ever sitting US president to visit this nondescript country.

This wasn’t about attending fancy galas, ballrooms, or shaking hands with royals.

Biden’s central purpose was to serve as the figurehead or supreme Ambassador, to confirm America’s commitment to the Lobito Trans-Africa Corridor.

If you’re not familiar, this is a US-backed railway linking the mineral-rich Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia to Angola’s Atlantic port of Lobito.

It serves as a critical corridor for the US’s access to future copper supply.

And by placing a sitting US president on the ground, it showed that America was holding firm in building out the necessary infrastructure in this dusty, windswept patch.

That’s because it gives the US access to Africa’s vast copper supply.

But here’s another example.

In September 2026, the US administration visited another place that most would struggle to locate on a map: the Southeast Asian country known as Myanmar.

The stated purpose of the visit was to help secure the release of a detained American businessman, Adam Castillo.

But this visit went far beyond bailing out a citizen from a rotting jail cell in Southeast Asia. By all accounts, he’s just one of many.  

The official visit marked the first open engagement between the US and the military-backed government of Myanmar. And that’s after years of US isolation following the 2021 military coup.

So, why was the administration interested in engaging with a country holding little economic relevance?

Mineral Supply

Specifically dysprosium and terbium. Myanmar is a major source of these heavy rare earth minerals.  

They’re used in high-performance permanent magnets.

But more importantly, virtually all of Myanmar’s mining output is sent next door to the mineral-processing powerhouse, China.

That’s where the raw ore is separated and processed for global manufacturers, such as EV makers and defence contractors.

And as you probably know, China is a major supplier of rare earths, accounting for 70-80% of the global supply.

However, less well understood is the sheer dominance China holds in heavy rare-earth processing.

According to some reports, up to 99% of the world’s refined supply comes from China. That’s total dominance for a strategic global material.

But here’s the kicker: at least half of China’s feedstock comes from Myanmar!

Bottom line: Myanmar plays a pivotal role in supplying China’s heavy rare earth feedstock. And that means it’s a critical tool in fuelling China’s primary geopolitical weapon against the West.

But America is waking up

Not surprisingly, the US Administration is starting to make strategic moves in another low-profile country with little economic relevance.

But that’s what today’s geopolitical manoeuvring consists of: tying up, or perhaps in some cases, disrupting, mineral supply chains.

And while the world’s superpowers make high-stakes moves in securing future supply, back in Australia, retail investors are piling out of the very companies that could offer the only alternative.

Rare earth stocks have been hammered in 2026. In many cases, down 50-60% from their 2025 highs.

Given the global importance, now might be the time to take a second look.

I’ll have more to say on that soon.