• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer

Fat Tail Daily

Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve

  • Menu
    • Commodities
      • Resources and Mining
      • Copper
      • Gold
      • Iron Ore
      • Lithium
      • Silver
      • Graphite
      • Rare Earths
    • Technology
      • AI
      • Bitcoin
      • Cryptocurrency
      • Energy
      • Financial Technology
      • Bio Technology
    • Market Analysis
      • Latest ASX News
      • Dividend Shares
      • ETFs
      • Stocks and Bonds
    • Macro
      • Australian Economy
      • Central Banks
      • World Markets
    • Small Caps
    • More
      • Investment Guides
      • Premium Research
      • Editors
      • About
      • Contact Us
  • Latest
  • Fat Tail Series
  • About Us
Macro Australian Economy

Qantas Shares Rise on Profitability Update

Like 0

By Kiryll Prakapenka, Monday, 02 May 2022

Following a positive profitability forecast for FY23, Qantas’s share price has increased by 2.86% today, trading at $5.76 per share.

Following a positive profitability forecast for FY23, Qantas’s [ASX:QAN] share price has increased by 2.86% today, trading at $5.76 per share.

QAN shares have risen 9.73% this past month and 16.16% over the last 52-week cycle.

The Australian airline has been performing well in its sector, up 8.68%, and against the broader market is up 12.21%.

Qantas is just short of regaining its 12-month peak despite COVID disruptions causing some expected turbulence in its industry.

Air New Zealand (AIZ), Air China (AICAF), and particularly EasyJet (SYJY) are not faring as well, all sitting considerably low on the ASX 200.

With COVID restrictions easing and countries like Canada removing testing on entry, hasn’t the time come for airlines to flock to the skies once more?

asx:qan stock prices chart

Source: Tradingview.com

Qantas anticipates profitability in FY23

Today’s third-quarter trading announcement from Qantas was uplifting, with the airline expecting to regain profitability in FY23.

Domestic travel was reported to be returning to pre-COVID levels ‘ahead of expectations,’ and demand for international travel increased.

The group expects domestic capacity to rise to pre-COVID levels by Q4 FY22. However, international capacity is still expected to sit under 50% by this time.

For the second quarter of 2022, the airline expects underlying EBITDA to reach around $450–550 million.

At the height of the COVID restrictions, border closures saw Qantas facing a top of $6.4 billion in debt.

However, due to substantial revenue growth during the third quarter, Qantas estimated net debt to drop to around $4.5 billion at the end of April.

Qantas reported a robust recovery in travel demand as Australia adapts to COVID-normal life, reporting that the ‘return of domestic travel demand ahead of expectations, solid international performance, and strong contributions from Qantas Loyalty and Freight drove significant levels of positive free cash flow in the quarter.’

The airline reported that its return to profitability is in part propelled by the company’s $1 billion transformation program.

Qantas still expects capital expenditure to remain at $2.3–2.4 billion in next financial year.

asx:qan plans for fleet expansion

Source: Qantas

Qantas fleet expansion

Today, Qantas also profiled several next-gen fleets that it hopes will generate employment opportunities, assist in delivering substantial shareholder value, and enhance future travel options by 2034.

40 narrow-body jets will be acquired for domestic flights as part of the company’s ‘Project Winton and 12 international airbuses will support non-stop flights to cities like New York and London with ‘Project Sunrise’.

CEO Alan Joyce said:

‘The A350 and Project Sunrise will make any city just one flight away from Australia. It’s the last frontier and the final fix for the tyranny of distance. As you’d expect, the cabin is being specially designed for maximum comfort in all classes for long-haul flying.

‘We have come through the other side of the pandemic a structurally different company. Our domestic market share is higher and the demand for direct international flights is even stronger than it was before COVID.’

Source: Qantas

QAN share price outlook

Qantas reports business travel is returning in force, with small businesses now exceeding pre-COVID levels and corporate travel rising 85%.

Bookings for London, Los Angeles, South Africa, and Bali markets are now above pre-COVID levels, with more than 60% of Asian destinations also opening up.

The world appears to be itching to travel again as international restrictions are eased — does this mean a new era for the airline industry will soon be emerging?

We’ll have to wait and see if the other airlines manage to bounce back in the same way and if these newfound freedoms stick.

However, when there’s uncertainty hanging in the air, it’s usually a prime time to go stock bargain hunting.

You could stumble across some high-quality, powerful stocks that have been discounted to ridiculous prices.

If you’d like to get some tips on where you might find some of these bargains, click here.

Regards,

Kiryll Prakapenka,
For The Daily Reckoning Australia

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

Kiryll Prakapenka

Kiryll’s Premium Subscriptions

Publication logo
Fat Tail Investment Research

Latest Articles

  • America on a War Footing: Implications as US Mineral Strategy Turns to Africa
    By James Cooper

    Geologist James Cooper examines the potential implications of America’s heavy focus on West Africa. Why is the US becoming deeply involved here? And what could the consequences be?

  • The biggest quarter on record for this share
    By Callum Newman

    We can see why the stock market didn’t react much to the RBA holding rates steady last meeting. Everyone expects rates to go down. It’s just a question of when. Fixed rate loans, and refinancings, are withering away as the market positions for more rate cuts. This is what you and I want to see as investors…

  • The US$2 Trillion Stablecoin Tsunami
    By Charlie Ormond

    These developments could transform the US$250 billion stablecoin market into a US$2 trillion juggernaut within years.

Primary Sidebar

Latest Articles

  • America on a War Footing: Implications as US Mineral Strategy Turns to Africa
  • The biggest quarter on record for this share
  • The US$2 Trillion Stablecoin Tsunami
  • Trump Sparks Rare Earth Rally
  • Copper Breaks Out: Are You Positioned?

Footer

Fat Tail Daily Logo
YouTube
Facebook
x (formally twitter)
LinkedIn

About

Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.

Go beyond conventional investing strategies with unique ideas and actionable opportunities. Our expert editors deliver conviction-led insights to guide your financial journey.

Quick Links

Subscribe

About

FAQ

Terms and Conditions

Financial Services Guide

Privacy Policy

Get in Touch

Contact Us

Email: support@fattail.com.au

Phone: 1300 667 481

All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.

Fat Tail Logo

Fat Tail Daily is brought to you by the team at Fat Tail Investment Research

Copyright © 2025 Fat Tail Daily | ACN: 117 765 009 / ABN: 33 117 765 009 / ASFL: 323 988