Prepare for Escalation: After US Midterms, All Bets Are Off

Last week, we revisited our long-term coverage on the copper market.

As I said, this market piqued my interest way back in 2022 when I first started with Fat Tail. In my mind, that was the time to seriously take a look.

And that’s exactly what we did… Recommending a copper company called NGEx Minerals. That’s now up over 350% since the original recommendation.

As a geologist with direct experience in the copper market, I recognised that underdeveloped, high-grade, large-scale copper deposits were exceptionally rare, and that when copper prices moved, these projects would benefit the most.

And that’s certainly been the headline story over the past 12 months, supply fears have catapulted copper into a price boom few could have imagined 3-4 years ago.

But as I said, we moved well ahead of the recent headlines. And that’s how you make real money in this market.

So, with a few feathers in our investment cap, I thought I’d give you a brief recap on how we prioritise our investments.

Our Strategy

Since 2022, I’ve refined my strategy for readers, a system that steadily builds wealth over years, not days.

First up, I tend to focus on the major commodity groups: copper, gold, and energy.

Other than a few exceptions, I tend to give a wide berth to the very niche minerals with obscure demand drivers. They often sound exciting on paper; they capture imaginations, but in the end, stories don’t make you money.

Focusing on companies that produce goods that SOMEONE wants TODAY.

Not in five or ten years’ time.

No one can reliably look that far into the future, especially not feasibility studies that banks rely on to justify financing.

The next step, and it’s an important one; understand where you sit in the commodity cycle. That’s what your Mining Memo coverage details.

Once you’re clear about the position of the cycle, then you can go shopping with a higher degree of confidence…

Narrow down your search to out-of-favour stocks and commodities and try to understand why they’re deflated. If no good reason exists, chances are it’s setting up for a move higher as the cycle evolves.

At this point, you’re ready to take a reasonable stake; gradually build your position on all future dips.

The key thing here is not to expect an immediate jump.

Remain patient and ignore the pessimistic mood. Stick to your out-of-favour investments and time will reward you.

Good stocks take time to build

Many of our best positions did nothing for the first 12-18 months after we bought them. This is an important part of the stock’s lifecycle, which traders call the accumulation phase.

After that, simply wait for the market to recognise the small pocket of value that you’ve now locked into your portfolio.

And that’s pretty much it.

This simple strategy has delivered a 15.1% annual return to my paid readership group since we began our model portfolio back in 2022.

We’ve decisively beaten our benchmark, the Metals and Mining [ASX: XMM] index, which has gained a 10.4% annualised return over the same period.

And beating a broad-based index fund over any considerable period is no easy feat.

I’m not highlighting that to talk up my own book; instead, it’s the best evidence I can provide that our model portfolio delivers real value to our paid readership.

Which is why I think you should be giving serious weight to my next major investment theory:

How the Cycle Unfolds from here

Tuesday, 3 November 2026; mark it in your diary.

That’s the date of the US midterm election. And as far as I can tell, once that day passes, all bets are off.

Investors should be bracing for unchecked escalation in the Iran-US conflict.

The US administration will have very little incentive to hold back once the votes are cast.

The actual result matters little; this government has nothing to lose after the midterms.

Which is why I believe a major escalation event could be underway by the end of 2026 or perhaps early 2027.

This would present as an inflection point in the market, just as bloated tech stocks inflate towards even more extreme valuations.

Bottom line: while the post-midterm election period presents a major market risk, an escalation in the Middle East could spark a specific area of the resource market.

That’s something I detail here.

The clock is ticking, and the time to start building your stake is now.

If you missed out on the copper trade, don’t let this next important move pass you by.

Until then, take care.