A neighbour of mine, Murray, popped around while I was cooking dinner last night.

He was looking quite dapper. Normally he’s dressed in grubby work clothes, at least when I see him.

‘I took my mum out for lunch,’ Murray told me. ‘She’s turning 85. And I’m going to retire this week.’

Murray is a genuine character. He drops the f bomb every second breath.

He doesn’t spend much. He drives an ancient ute. Doesn’t drink. I’ve never known him to take a holiday.

I tried to call him a while back. His phone got switched off because it was still on the 3G network. He later spent $65 to upgrade to 4G – and resented it.

Murray also owns 4 properties.

He was telling me his plans as I turned the sausages.

‘I’m going to do up my place, then flog it off. Move in to my main rental. The government is f***n killing me with land tax on that one.

‘I only charge the guy $300 a week there. He’s been there for 20 years. I trust him. The agent says I should get more. But then I’d just pay more tax. F*** them.’

Murray told me he’s quitting his job because “he only earns $26 an hour. F*** shit.”

How he managed to acquire 4 properties may be one of those epic cases of frugality.

Like the janitor in the US that had over a million bucks in the share market…and sent kids he didn’t know to college.

I said as much.

“Yeah,” he replied. “But you couldn’t do it now. I bought the property next to you in 1991. It was cheap then. Victoria was in recession. They couldn’t give it away. I got lucky, I suppose. I had no idea what I was doing really.”

There’s the key!

Yep. Murray, whether he knew it or not, swooped in after a big Victorian property bust. That’s when you get the best prices.

Case in point is a couple of my positions on the Australian Small Cap Advisory buy list – my small cap advisory.

Small caps went into a horrid bear market over 2022 and 2023.

I recommended a company called Tuas ($TUA) in March 2023. It’s now up 500%.

I’m also chuffed with a stock called MA Financial ($MAF). Last week it rallied hard after releasing its latest guidance.

It’s now doubled since late 2023. All the ingredients were there for this one to come together. You just had to bank on the markets bouncing back at some point. And so they have.

(This is why, too, I occasionally object to small caps being described as higher risk than other shares. Yes, some are. Very much so. But MA Financial is a very solid operation run by very credible people. And all shares come with risks! Did you see JHX get slammed 30%?)

Indeed, you could have just bought an ETF of the general index and made 40% in 3 years.

That’s the power of buying in a downturn, if you can get your analysis right.

But we’re not in a bear market, anymore. Where can we find something that’s still suppressed?

The last sector where I believe this to be true remains the junior mining sector. It’s not as dire as it was. But we’re a long away from the giddy, reckless days of 2021.

Now, this is indeed a risky sector. Unpredictable commodity prices. Long development times. The occasional charlatan or stock promoter in the waters.

But yet…

If you can latch on to a compelling project, the returns can be amazing.

My suggestion here is to always grab a basket of names, rather just one. You’re bound to have a duster or two. But the one that really soars? That can pay for a few duds.

We know gold has been hot, and retains high interest. Lithium is picking up. Gas projects are needed as part of the “transition”.

The opportunities are broad, and deep.

Your best bet is to start following my colleague James Cooper. He does the legwork on what’s moving in resources, and what’s compelling.

I suspect that, in 2027 or 2028, he’ll be able to look back on some monster winners like I did with Tuas today.

Patience and time. These can work wonders in the share market, like they can in property too.

By all means, wait to reap the fruits of your investment. But don’t wait to get started. Check out James’s work here.

Best Wishes,

Callum Newman,
Small-Cap Systems and Australian Small-Cap Investigator

***

Murray’s Chart of the Day –
US Dollar Index

By Murray Dawes, Thursday, 21 August 2025

Source: Tradingview

[Click to open in a new window]

I launched my new International Stock Trader advisory last week. The 50%-off founding member deal ends tomorrow. The inflow of members has shocked me. And two of our first three recommendations are all up between 1.5% and 7.5%. In just a few trading sessions! If you want to learn more before the deal closes, go here.

It’s helped that we launched this new global stock initiative on the back of some very bullish news for the kind of stocks I’ll be building a portfolio with over the next few months.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a dovish Jackson Hole speech on Friday and sparked a sharp selloff in the US Dollar.

The US Dollar Index [TVC:DXY] has had the worst start to a year in decades and the downtrend looks like it is set to continue.

The chart above shows you the daily chart since the sell-off began in January this year.

You can see the clear waves to the downside that I have marked with black lines.

Notice that each rally has failed to get above the high of the previous up-wave. So the downtrend remains intact.

The most recent rally has developed in a bearish ABC pattern which has already overlapped beneath ‘A’.

The stage is set for another test of the low of the move at ‘X’ with a failure below there triggering another wave in the downtrend.

US 2-year bond yields fell sharply on the day, with the 10-year and 30-year bond not dropping by that much. That saw a further steepening of the yield curve.

I have been discussing these things for the past few weeks because they will set the stage for the sectors that can rally over the next six to twelve months.

Another leg down in the US Dollar will help to lift gold and silver of course. But other commodities that are recovering from bear markets such as copper, lithium, platinum, and rare earths could also see further buying.

We are going to see the full effect of the tariffs unfold over the next few months and I suspect that a stretched consumer will vote with their feet by closing their wallets if price jump too sharply.

Businesses will not have the pricing power to raise prices to cover all of the tariffs so margins may also be under pressure.

Rather than sparking a sharp jump in CPI (Consumer Price Inflation) we may see PPI (Producer Price Inflation) spike with CPI dragging behind and sales slowing.

That won’t be a reason to keep interest rates high and I suspect the Fed may realise they are behind the 8-ball and will need to drop rates at a faster clip.

That sets the stage for stocks to continue their strong bull move into the end of the year.

Which brings me back to International Stock Trader.

If you have been sitting on the sidelines but want to start trading international stocks you only have a couple of days left to become a founding member.

We entered three stocks last week and on Friday they jumped 1.5%, 5%, and 7.5%.

A $10,000 investment in each would be up $1,400 already. That makes the price of admission nearly covered already.

So check out my new trading service here and don’t delay joining because the offer is ending on Tuesday.

Regards,

Murray Dawes,
Retirement Trader & International Stock Trader