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Market Analysis Latest ASX News

Has a ‘No Dividend’ Call Plunged the Redbubble Share Price? (ASX:RBL)

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By Lachlann Tierney, Tuesday, 16 February 2021

Online marketplace Redbubble Ltd (ASX:RBL) share price has seen its share price tank heavily today despite almost doubling its revenue in the first half of FY2021. At time of writing the RBL share price has dropped 15.54%...

Online marketplace Redbubble Ltd [ASX:RBL] has seen its share price tank heavily today despite almost doubling its revenue in the first half of FY2021.

At time of writing the RBL share price has dropped 15.54%, or $1.08, to trade at $5.87 per share, its lowest point since the beginning of the 2021 calendar year.

Redbubble Share Price Chart - ASX RBLSource: Trading View

RBL, which provides a platform for independent artists to sell their designs through its marketplace, made solid gains last year as the pandemic forced people to shop online.

Discover three innovative Aussie fintech stocks with exciting growth potential. Download your free report now.

Why have investors dumped Redbubble?

RBL’s growth has been astronomical in recent times, with the company announcing today that its revenue for 1H FY2021 grew by 95.6% to $417.6 million.

Its marketplace revenue (revenue minus fees paid to artists) almost doubled to $353 million.

This would have topped 100% had it not been for a currency headwind from the weaker US dollar.

The online marketplace also markedly improved its net profit by 1,465%, from a loss of $3 million in the last corresponding half to a profit of $41 million.

A result that comes on the back of an expanded shopping customer base that grew by 69% to $62 million during the period.

The UK, the third-biggest market for RBL, had the highest growth in gross transaction value for the half at 105%.

North America, which accounts for the lion’s share of RBL’s sales (69%), also posted a solid performance with 89% growth.

So, why the terrible share price action?

It’s hard to make sense why investors would dump RBL when the company is growing at such a rapid pace.

One possibility is the absence of a dividend.

Despite the surge in earnings, CEO Michael Ilczynski told investors not to expect a dividend yet.

With a cash balance of $130 million, investors might have been anticipating some distribution this half.

Should you expect fourfold return and dividends?

For a company as fresh as RBL (listing in 2016) it could be a little brash to be expecting it pay out its profits to shareholders.

The company’s share price has nearly returned 400% in the past 12 months and its financials suggest that its rapid growth could continue.

Young companies typically use excess cash to invest back into its business in order to support growth — not to pay out shareholders.

Meaning, shareholders should want RBL to use that cash to generate even more growth.

Another cause for concern may have been lower sales margins released in December caused by shipping partners who were unable to provide assurances in delivering products.

Which investors might worry could continue into the second half of the financial year.

There is no doubt that Redbubble has shown some incredible growth. And with a market cap of $1.6 billion, Redbubble is no longer one of the ASX’s small-capped star. But if you’re on the hunt for the next RBL, then check out these three exciting tech trends and three small-cap stocks that could explode. Claim your free report here.

Regards,

Lachlann Tierney,
For Money Morning

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

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Lachlann Tierney
Lachlann ‘Lachy’ Tierney is passionate about uncovering hidden opportunities in the microcap sector. With four years of experience as a senior equities analyst at one of Australia’s leading microcap firms, he has built a reputation for rigorous research, deep-dive due diligence, and accessible investor communications. Over this time, he has vetted seed, pre-IPO and ASX-listed companies across sectors, conducted onsite visits, and built strong relationships across the microcap space. Lachy is nearing completion of a PhD in economics at RMIT University, where his research focuses on blockchain governance and voting systems. His work is housed within the Blockchain Innovation Hub at RMIT, a leading research centre for crypto-economics and blockchain research. He holds a Master’s degree from the London School of Economics and an Honours BA in Philosophy and Politics from the University of Melbourne. Born in New York and raised in California, Lachy grew up a few blocks from biotech giant Amgen and counts among his peers various characters in the overlapping worlds of venture capital, technology and crypto. When he’s not researching microcaps, he’s most likely sweating it out in a sauna or dunking himself in cold Tasmanian water.

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All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.

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