Beware the Secular Bear
When you’ve been conditioned to an environment of low inflation, low interest rates, rising asset markets, and (almost) continual GDP growth, the prospect of a future that’s entirely different is almost inconceivable.
Macroeconomics: Global Central Banks News & Highlights
Forbidden Fruit and a Pension Problem
tocks go up. Then they go down. They went up, with brief interruptions, for 39 years…from August 1982 to November 2021. Since then, the Dow has lost about 5,000 points.
Let Me Tell You a Story about the Stock Market…
Good news: Economists have finally admitted how clueless they really are. One wrote a book about it called Narrative Economics.
Praying for Deliverance
Yesterday morning investors were in trouble. The last six months were the worst in the stock market since 1970. As for the bond market, they were the worst since George Washington was president.
Cost Reductions Have Hidden Costs
Why does cost reduction weaken supply chains and lead to breakdowns? The answer is that cost reductions have hidden costs.
The US, Now and Then
Today is a holiday in the US. Americans celebrate what they used to be. And pretend they still are.
