Is This the Start of the Santa Rally?

By Murray Dawes, Friday, 28 November 2025

After a rough month that saw the ASX 200 drop 8% and local microcaps sink 15%, everyone’s hoping a Santa Rally is around the corner. As US rate cut hopes rise US stocks are edging towards a weekly buy signal. But in Australia, hot inflation has traders worrying we’re heading the other way. In this week’s Closing Bell, Charlie and I break down the diverging paths of the Nasdaq and ASX and where the real action is hiding. We look at fresh moves in copper and an oversold Bitcoin that could be ready to bounce, but we also explain why you might want to de-risk on the way up.

After a torrid month of selling pressure, markets have crossed fingers and toes the worst has passed and a Santa Rally awaits.

US stocks are on the cusp of sending a weekly buy signal, but it hasn’t happened yet..

Australian stocks have copped much more of a beating than their US counterparts, with the S&P/ASX 200 [ASX:XJO] down 8% and microcaps down 15%.

The chance of a rate cut in the US is rising but Australia is going in the opposite direction with some shocking inflation figures released this week.

So we may be in for a period of underperformance in Oz. We are used to that.

The markets are quite frankly a little dull at the moment with Thanksgiving in the US and Christmas around the corner.

But Charlie and I managed to find some movement in copper and Bitcoin that may be of interest to traders.

Bitcoin looks ripe for a bounce from oversold levels. But as I mention in today’s Closing Bell, you would want to de-risk on the way up because the bigger picture is looking slightly dangerous.

So click on the video below to check out this week’s Closing Bell, where we discuss the Nasdaq, S&P/ASX 200, copper, Bitcoin.

YouTube player

Regards,

Murray Dawes,
Retirement Trader, International Stock Trader and
Murray’s Trading Room

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

Comments

Subscribe

0 Comments

Murray Dawes is our resident expert trader and portfolio manager. He is a former Sydney Futures Exchange floor trader who went on to design custom trading systems and strategies for ultra-wealthy clients (including one of Australia’s richest families). Today, his mission is to help ordinary Aussie investors make profitable investments, while expertly managing risk.

He uses his proprietary system for his more conversative and longer-term-focused service Retirement Trader

Murray’s Premium Subscriptions

International Stock Trader

Retirement Trader

Maybe Apple is Right
By Charlie Ormond

AI is becoming more capable. But that doesn’t guarantee returns for those building ever-taller towers. New research points to a future where intelligence runs locally — and Apple could be well placed.
History repeats; don’t get caught on the Wrong Side
By James Cooper

European and Canadian defence spending jumped almost 20% in 2025 alone. This is where the next commodity boom is quietly being built.
Is It Time to Go Fishing?
By Murray Dawes

With US bond yields rising and the 10-year yield reaching a level last seen in 2007, Charlie and I step back to examine the 40-year cycle in interest rates and what bear flattening of the yield curve has meant for stocks.

All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.