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Commodities

America on a War Footing – The Copper Strategy Part II

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By James Cooper, Friday, 12 September 2025

As far as the world’s two largest superpowers are concerned, Africa’s mineral wealth remains up for grabs. Read on to find out why Africa’s minerals could be a geopolitical flashpoint in future.

On Wednesday, I outlined why I thought something important was unfolding in Africa, and why it deserves your attention.

A potential flash point for the US and China.

That’s why I recently published a special report detailing America’s pivot into the Central African Copper Belt.

As I mentioned, the US is working with a handful of small African nations to revamp an old, disused railway line…

It’s known as the Lobito Railway Corridor.

It’s part of America’s strategy to exploit Africa’s vast mineral wealth.

Transporting ore from the middle of the continent to ports on Africa’s West Coast.

But these mines are remote, undeveloped, and contain virtually zero infrastructure.

The railway development provides the critical link.

But there’s a kink in America’s copper strategy.

One that could become a major flash point between the US and China.

You see, China is also embarking on its own railway development: revamping the Tazara Railway, which runs from Zambia to Tanzania.

Specifically, to Africa’s East Coast.

So here we have it:

Two major railway development projects.

One superpower is looking to move Africa’s copper ore to ports on the East Coast for shipping across the Indian Ocean to China.

The other superpower is looking to shift ore to Africa’s West coast and then onto the US.

And Africa’s copper mines sit directly in the middle:

Source: US Institute of Peace

An emerging geopolitical flash point

And remarkably, no one’s paying attention!

You see, the railway corridor is only as valuable as the ore that it can access.

But America wants it… And China wants it!

This is why I’ve been closely watching events unfolding in this part of the world.

For the better part of two decades, China has held a dominating presence in Zambia and the DRC, the two countries that host the Central African Copper Belt.

Building mines and developing infrastructure to secure their presence in this critical region.

But the US is trying to turn the dial on China’s dominating role in the area.

They gave us one obvious clue earlier this month…

Kitwe Mine Disaster

In February 2025, a major tailings breach occurred at a copper mine operated by Sino-Metals.

Sino-Metals is a Chinese state-owned firm.

The breach occurred near a town called Kitwe in the heart of the African copper belt, in Zambia.

It has operated mines in the region for years, including when I worked as a geologist in Zambia from 2010 to 2014.

The mine failure released heavy metals like arsenic into the surrounding farmland and waterways, killing fish and poisoning agricultural land.

But I think America is now attempting to use this accident to its advantage, sowing the seeds of distrust among locals to try to pit them against Chinese interests.

Earlier this month, the US embassy in Zambia warned that the disaster was far worse than either Sino-Metals or the Zambian government had first reported.

They claimed that the volume of toxic sludge released may have been up to 30 times higher than official estimates.

In response, the US embassy issued an evacuation order to remove its staff from the area and issued a travel warning for US citizens.

Clearly, they were looking to generate public fear.

And incite negative sentiment against the state-owned Chinese operator.

Authorities in China have hit back with their own statements disputing the US embassy’s claims.

This (and events like it) are worth paying attention to.

As I’ve been outlining for several years, access to minerals is now embroiled in geopolitical manoeuvring.

Clearly, China and the US view the Central African Copper Belt as a critical source of future supply for this vital commodity.

And as far as these two geopolitical superpowers are concerned, Africa remains up for grabs.

Stay tuned.

Regards,

James Cooper,
Mining: Phase One and Diggers and Drillers

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

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James Cooper

James Cooper has been a working geologist in mines across Australia, Canada, and Africa since the early 2000s. He’s led the operations of tiny explorers through to huge producer outfits. He’s seen booms and busts firsthand and he also understands the cyclical nature of individual commodities. For example, James was right there when Barrick Gold launched an enormous $7.5 billion takeover bid for Equinox. That was the peak of the last cycle.

With his background as a geo and finance professional, he brings a unique insight and experience to Fat Tail Investment Research. He writes the broader resource-focused investing letter Diggers and Drillers and the ultra-speculative explorer-focused trading service Mining: Phase One.

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All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.

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