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Bottoms up in Victoria, Market Chaos and The One Thing in Your Control

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By Lachlann Tierney, Monday, 09 March 2026

A day of rest in Victoria, chaos in the Middle East, and the hard work that makes it all tick. Tomorrow: China’s economy.

It’s Labour Day in Victoria.

It would be too easy today to ruminate on the state of the labour market in Victoria, where this company is based.

The self-inflicted wounds are often the easiest forgotten.

The problems are well known, and I suspect very little will change unless something drastic happens to the Australian financial system and our economy.

And as I write this, there are major risks to the Australian stock market emanating from the Middle East.

And yet, as of Friday…by George, the ASX is holding up remarkably well!

BHP is now the largest capped company on the ASX – a huge move since the start of the year by Aussie stock market standards.

There’s always a silver lining, and as investors it’s our job to find that silver lining.

Sometimes, it’s literally physical silver, which pushed to nearly US$120, earlier this year.

Commodities have been the most straightforward trade of the year so far.

But at the risk of sounding trite, let’s talk about the commodity that you control: your labour.

Hard work still pays, even
if they don’t want it to

At the age of 35, I can confirm that you can still “make it” in this country, despite our best efforts to disincentivise hard work.

There’s the NDIS, various statistics about public vs. private sector jobs, the ever-growing array of taxes, the advent of AI.

The list is as painful as it is long.

So what do you do? Build a massive bulwark of capital to survive the end times?

Or spend it all on matcha tea?

Yes, “matcha inflation” is now a set of words in use.

As for generational divides on wealth, I don’t profess to be the most “astute” with my own money.

After all, it’s important to enjoy the present life, as much as the future life.

But I’ve always driven hard at whatever occupation I was in at the time.

That was my bulwark against the ebb and flow of an economy.

As I’m sure many of you would know, there’s plenty of odd jobs along the way…

Grocery bag packer, tutor, soccer coach volunteer, psychology experiment test subject, maintenance man, bartender, removalist, political researcher, to name a few.

And here I am.

But throughout it all, one of the biggest learnings was: learn how to work with your colleagues.

The labour you control must move in concert with others’ labour.

Encourage and guide, joke and laugh, be serious when the time comes and as Rudyard Kipling would say…

“Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it”

Source: Lachlann Tierney

So I hope on today’s day of rest in Victoria, you get to enjoy the fruits of your labour.

Which includes times with family and friends.

Go on…

A BBQ, a cold one, perhaps a quick glance at the markets in between it all?

Speaking of which…

In tomorrow’s note I’ll be delving into China’s financial system and its economy.

Let’s just say, the reasons for their problems may not be quite as obvious as the reasons for our problems.

But with risk, comes opportunity.

We’ll leave that for tomorrow. Today is about giving yourself a pat on the back and enjoying time with your family and friends.

I lift my glass for you, cheers!

Best Wishes,

Lachlann Tierney,
Australian Small-Cap Investigator and Fat Tail Micro-Caps

***

Murray’s Chart of the Day – S&P/ASX 200

By Murray Dawes, Monday, 09 March 2026

Source: TradingView

[Click to open in a new window]

The S&P/ASX 200 [ASX:XJO] copped a beating last week, dropping around 4%.

That has confirmed a major false break of the all-time high hit in October 2025.

That means we should see plenty of resistance up around 9,000-9,100 (about 2-3% above current levels) and the probability we see further downside increases.

A quick comparison to the price action we saw in late 2024 to early 2025 shows a similar situation to now.

The number ‘1’ in the chart shows the first false break of the high in the uptrend that leads to a correction.

But prices recover and head above the previous high. Then a second false break occurs. That is the one that leads to serious selling pressure.

The charts could be distorted by the volatility occurring as a result of the war in Iran. I think money is flooding back home to the US while the outcome of the war remains unknown.

A purely technical reading of the chart above is that the good times are over for now and further downside should be expected in the weeks ahead.

But markets could react swiftly to developments in Iran, so I am ready to change tack if price action tells me to.

Regards,

Murray Dawes,
Retirement Trader and International Stock Trader

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

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Lachlann Tierney
Lachlann ‘Lachy’ Tierney is passionate about uncovering hidden opportunities in the microcap sector. With four years of experience as a senior equities analyst at one of Australia’s leading microcap firms, he has built a reputation for rigorous research, deep-dive due diligence, and accessible investor communications. Over this time, he has vetted seed, pre-IPO and ASX-listed companies across sectors, conducted onsite visits, and built strong relationships across the microcap space. Lachy is nearing completion of a PhD in economics at RMIT University, where his research focuses on blockchain governance and voting systems. His work was housed within the Blockchain Innovation Hub at RMIT, a leading research centre for crypto-economics and blockchain research. He holds a Master’s degree from the London School of Economics and an Honours BA in Philosophy and Politics from the University of Melbourne. Born in New York and raised in California, Lachy grew up a few blocks from biotech giant Amgen and counts among his peers various characters in the overlapping worlds of venture capital, technology and crypto. When he’s not researching microcaps, he’s most likely sweating it out in a sauna or dunking himself in cold Tasmanian water.

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All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

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