AI Jitters Spread

By Murray Dawes, Friday, 21 November 2025

The market looked unstoppable a week ago. Now the ASX 200 is rolling over, the S&P 500 just posted a brutal reversal after Nvidia’s results, and the AI poster children are starting to bleed. In this episode of Closing Bell we break down the confirmed false break on the ASX, the huge intraday whipsaw on Wall Street, why names like Nvidia, Blue Owl, Oracle and Meta are flashing warning signs, and how the collapsing Japanese yen could be the next wild card. Plus, we map out the key downside levels to watch and where Nvidia might actually become a buy if this correction deepens.

Last week I warned you about the prospect of a 10% correction unfolding in the S&P/ASX 200 [ASX:XJO].

After another sharp sell-off this week, we are well on the way there.

The false break of February’s high has been confirmed, and now the target at 7,900 comes into play. That is 6% below the current level of 8,429.

Last nights price action in the States was particularly telling.

Nvidia’s [NASDAQ:NVDA] results came out on Thursday morning and the stock ran in the overnight market. That helped stocks in Australia jump over 100 points yesterday.

But when US stocks opened the selling began and didn’t stop until the close. The S&P 500 opened up nearly 100 points and then closed down over 100 points. A 230 point (3.5%) range on the day.

A move like that tells you the big sellers are now stepping in and the current weekly uptrend is under threat.

If prices close around current levels or lower, a monthly sell pivot will be confirmed in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

The long-term trends will still be up, but it means the risk of further downside will increase.

Nvidia had an 8% range on the day yesterday and closed at its low for the day.

It looks like we will see more downside, but I point out in today’s Closing Bell where Nvidia could be worth picking up if the correction continues.

There is definitely some selling pressure building up in various corners of the AI story.

Blue Owl Capital [NYSE:OWL], a major financier of the AI data centre build-out, is down nearly 50% since the start of the year.

Oracle Corporation [NYSE:ORCL], and Meta Platforms [NASDAQ:META] remain weak and could accelerate to the downside the way their charts are looking.

Another wild card is the continuing collapse in the Japanese Yen despite the fact their bond yields continue to race higher.

The USDJPY is now just below the level where the Bank of Japan intervened in the Yen to halt its collapse in July 2024.

So there is a lot to discuss in today’s Closing Bell as we race towards the end of the year.

Click on the video below and be sure to drop by the YouTube version to give us a ‘like’ if we added value to your day.

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Regards,

Murray Dawes,
Retirement Trader and International Stock Trader

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

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Murray Dawes is our resident expert trader and portfolio manager. He is a former Sydney Futures Exchange floor trader who went on to design custom trading systems and strategies for ultra-wealthy clients (including one of Australia’s richest families). Today, his mission is to help ordinary Aussie investors make profitable investments, while expertly managing risk.

He uses his proprietary system for his more conversative and longer-term-focused service Retirement Trader…and then applies the same system to the ultra-speculative end of the Australian market in Fat Tail Microcaps (this service is strictly limited and via invitation only).

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All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.