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A Money Whose Tale Is As Old As Time

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By Brian Chu, Tuesday, 21 May 2024

Something that’s survived over 2,500 years is well worth your attention…

In today’s Fat Tail Daily, we live in a pivotal moment of history. It’s not a question of whether our financial system is changing; it’s a question of what it will become. One thing is clear: inflation has spiralled out of control, causing an extended period of unbridled borrowing and spending. Even as our government agencies try to convince us that inflation is mild, many know otherwise. It’s time to act before the crowd does. How so? Read on…

Just over two years ago, my family packed our belongings and drove down the M31 (Hume Freeway), heading to the Southern Highlands.

It was a summery early February afternoon when we arrived in our new home. The temperature was in the high 20 degrees.

The removalists arrived an hour after we did and unpacked our goods.

I could remember they worked up a sweat, moving boxes and furniture off the truck and into the house.

When they finished, it was 5:30 p.m. A cool breeze had set in, and the mercury quickly fell below 20 degrees.

At night, we could feel the chill gradually set in inside our new home.

This was late summer in the Highlands — balmy during the day, crisp and cool after sundown.

For several months, we acclimatised ourselves (slowly). We also took time to get a feel of the surroundings and get to know the people.

One of my readers, David, wrote me a note to tell me he lived in a neighbouring suburb. He helped me ease into my new surroundings and was warm in his welcoming. We exchanged emails and decided to meet up face to face in May 2022.

We’ve been friends over these two years.

A Persian relic linked to my son

David and I share a common passion for precious metals.

Though David’s particular love is in numismatics and coin collection, which I haven’t yet picked up. He happens to be a long-serving senior figure in an Australian numismatics club.

David showed me some Persian relics, which were fascinating.

As an aside, my son’s name is Cyrus. My wife, Cindy, chose that name because we wanted to name him from a character in the Bible, but a name that was less common.

For those who are familiar, King Cyrus the Great was the founder of the Achaemenid Persian Empire. He was also credited with allowing the Israelites to return to their home in Jerusalem, a city that the Babylonian King Nebuchadnezzar sacked some 50 years before. The Bible prophesied this would happen in the Book of Isaiah, even naming him before he was born!

One of King Cyrus’s conquests was the Kingdom of Lydia, famous for its gold mines and the minted coins. Lydia may not have been the first kingdom to use gold as money, but it was certainly the most famous.

After conquering Lydia, the Persians adopted the idea of coinage. King Cyrus’ son, King Darius I, took upon this task on a grand scale. The kingdom minted gold darics and silver sigloi.

Sadly, not many remain today. The Greek Emperor, Alexander the Great, ordered the Persian coins melted and recast into his own when he conquered the Persian Kingdom some two centuries later.

You can imagine how valuable the remaining darics are today.

Over two decades ago, David came across these Persian coins and bought them. When we met, he brought the darics and sigloi to show me.

Here’s what they look like:

Fat Tail Investment Research

Source: Brian W.B. Chu

[Click to open in a new window]

A money whose tale is as old as time

Besides the rarity and value these darics and sigloi hold today, I marvelled at their age and the stories within.

These coins are artefacts from over 2,500 years ago!

How many generations have come and gone during this time?

Even those empires have come and gone, as have those who conquered them. Their past is now in ruins, consigned to the history books.

Yet these darics and sigloi haven’t changed.

They were money back then, is now and will be in the future. That won’t change.

Our financial system at the crossroads

We live in a pivotal moment of history in that the petrodollar system is at a crossroads.

It’s not a question of whether the system is changing; it’s a question of what it will become.

One thing is clear: inflation has spiralled out of control, thanks to an extended period of unbridled borrowing and spending.

Even as our government agencies publish data to convince us, in vain, that inflation is mild, our own lived experience tell us otherwise.

The system thrives on debt, currency creation and spending. Like running on a treadmill that keeps accelerating, the runner eventually is out of breath and collapses dead.

Those at the top in governments, financial institutions, international think tanks, and corporations know this is unsustainable. To keep the music going, they utter sweet words backed by fallacious data.

But a growing crowd stands in their way, calling out their deceit. This crowd includes those who learnt from history, and those who stirred from their slumber after enduring the pain of the silent robbery we call inflation.

All this is happening as gold continues its meteoric run towards US$2,500 an ounce:

Fat Tail Investment Research

Source: Refinitiv Eikon

[Click to open in a new window]

And silver hitting levels not seen since 2012:

Fat Tail Investment Research

Source: Refinitiv Eikon

[Click to open in a new window]

As currencies worldwide lose purchasing power due to inflation, life as we know could change.

Will it happen gently, with an orderly transition from the current system into a new one?

Or abruptly and violently, like what we saw last century with world wars and international conflict?

Move before the crowd rushes in

Studying the past can be beneficial.

It might not repeat itself, but patterns can help you anticipate what could happen next.

If possible, it’s better to learn from the errors of others than to suffer one’s own pain and loss.

The indicators point to a major change, and history has proven the resilience of gold and silver.

Something that has survived for so long, has the odds stacked in its favour.

Last week I appeared on Kerry Stevenson’s Making Money Matter to talk about how it’s time to make gold great again.

In there, I outline the dire straits that many Australian households face due to rising living costs and the unaffordability of housing.

It’s not all doom and gloom though. There’s a community of precious metals enthusiasts here who have taken back their financial security.

I invite you to watch the video here:

Moreover, Kerry is hosting in late-August the 2024 Australian Gold Conference.

On Monday night the 26th of August, there’ll be a free event, Eureka 2024, aimed at helping Australians learn about how to build their wealth with gold.

She has also generously provided a special discount on tickets to the conference. It’s available to you if you are a member of my precious metals newsletters, The Australian Gold Report or Gold Stock Pro.

Why not sign up for The Australian Gold Report now? You’ll learn about how to build a precious metals portfolio to protect you against the risks associated with the transition of our financial system.

The crowd will soon get wind that the growing momentum in gold and silver’s rally spells trouble. You want to benefit from the crowd clamouring on board rather than enrich the early movers by running with the crowd.

It’s time to act NOW!

God bless,

Brian Chu Signature

Brian Chu,
Editor, Gold Stock Pro and The Australian Gold Report

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

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Brian Chu

Brian Chu is one of Australia’s foremost independent authorities on gold and gold stocks, with a unique strategy for valuing big producers and highly speculative explorers. He established a private family fund that only invests in ASX-listed gold mining companies, being one of a few such funds in Australia, putting his strategy and research skills to the test under public scrutiny. He currently writes two gold-focused investment advisories.

In his Australian Gold Report, Brian helps you build long-term wealth in physical gold and a select portfolio of hand-picked stocks comprising mainly producers with proven revenue streams and appealing risk-reward profiles. He uses his original valuation metrics and a tried-and-tested investment strategy to help you to deliver sustained outperformance against industry benchmarks.

In his more specialised Gold Stock Pro service, Brian helps readers trade some of the most exciting, speculative gold mining plays on the ASX. He uses his proprietary system — based on the famous Lassonde Curve model, which tracks the life cycle of mining stocks. His aim is to help you navigate the gold and silver cycles, and to capitalise on the bull market for opportunities to deliver outsized gains.

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All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.

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