This has been some decade and we’re only halfway through!
It began with a global pandemic; planes stopped flying, and governments locked us inside our homes.
A clue to what would come…
By early 2022, war had broken out in Ukraine, destabilising energy security across Europe and Asia.
But by then, a new WORD was haunting global markets… INFLATION.
In response, central banks across the West led a damaging rate-hiking regime that was unprecedented in its aggression.
As a result, a mini-bank collapse occurred in the US.
But those spot fires were quickly extinguished… The crisis didn’t spread.
Then, in 2024, the world was struck by the attempted assassination of the former US President, Donald Trump.
But volatility was far from over.
When Trump returned to the presidential office in 2025, the global economy was struck down AGAIN, with uncanny parallels to the COVID-19 panic.
Trump thumped nations across the globe with threats of triple-digit tariffs.
A major blow given that the US is the world’s largest and most crucial consumer economy.
But that’s the decade we’re living in today, and we’re only halfway through!
Barely a month passes by without another major historical event taking place.
No doubt, this has been a blockbuster time to be alive.
But it’s also wreaked havoc on investors’ brains!
Just this month, almost a quarter of global oil exports were put at risk as Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israeli and US attacks.
For now, that threat has eased.
A ceasefire has been struck, and Trump has reneged on much of his tariff bluster.
Meanwhile, inflation is easing, and central banks are shifting dovish, signalling more rate cuts for 2025.
But is this the calm before the storm really hits?
The Blockbuster Decade: Not Finished Yet.
We’re halfway there… And investors are already fatigued.
But have we passed the extreme volatility that’s marred this decade?
A betting man would probably tell you that we haven’t!
And if you agree that risk remains the recipe for the remainder of this decade, then resources should be your focus.
You see, commodities are NOT part of the psyche of regular investors… Yet.
This is a market brimming with value.
And that’s precisely what you should be steering towards in a period of ongoing volatility.
Unlike the boom of the early 2000s, mining stocks are far from making front-page headlines.
There’s no talk of the outrageous salaries in Australia’s mining sector.
No market commentary covering windfalls for property investors in mining towns like the Pilbara or Kalgoorlie.
And there’s absolutely no rush among large-cap producers to grab hold of smaller mining outfits.
And that’s despite gold trading at record prices.
Conditions today are far from the frenzied hype of the last mining boom.
But that’s changing… Gradually, at first.
As mentioned, gold hit and advanced into new all-time highs last year.
Silver and platinum have just shot into multi-year highs this month.
Copper tested its all-time highs last week.
Base metals, like zinc, titanium, and aluminium, remain elevated and ready to follow copper’s lead should it breach this historic top.
This is what the early stages of a major commodity bull market look like.
Yet, the narrative remains quiet on all things commodities.
Mining juniors barely have a heartbeat, trolling around multi-year lows. Stuck within a technical bear market.
Investor psyche for mining stocks remains muted.
So, brace yourself
The early 2000s were described as unprecedented, a boom that could never repeat. But then something unprecedented did happen…
The downturn years that followed, from 2013 to 2021, punched the wind out of the industry.
Investments reached historic lows, from oil and gas, copper, to gold. Resources were unloved.
Retail and institutional investors trashed the entire commodity sector.
Meanwhile, US stocks flew on the back of low interest rates.
But this decade has marked the slow, gradual recovery of commodity prices.
Why?
Well, commodities tend to relish volatility.
Higher commodity prices are historically linked to inflation, trade uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and war—and that’s the signature of the 2020s.
We’re witnessing the gradual return of the old economy.
Investors are being re-awakened to the idea of tying wealth to REAL assets.
That’s what volatility does.
But as investment returns to the old economy, it’s important to remember that the big miners have grown enormously fat from the work undertaken more than 15, 20, and sometimes 30 years ago.
Reaping the benefits of the LAST capex boom but spending little on replacement reserves, since.
And mines are depleting assets.
Addressing the problem of a lack of new supply won’t come quickly or easily.
Major miners have grown lazy, risk-averse, and abhorrent to spending money on project development or exploration.
The commodity sector has endured a decade of investment malaise.
But this historical era of underinvestment can only have one outcome…
Buy-outs.
As the desire to buy new projects finally returns, I suspect bidding will be fierce among the cashed-up majors who’ve benefited from steadily rising commodity prices this decade.
Lack of investment over the last decade will drive capital into the small handful of projects that have advanced.
And that’s where investors have an opportunity to speculate.
At my paid readership group, I’ve focused on mining stocks and developers looking to deliver the next generation of deposits.
Companies that have worked hard against the trend of capital flowing out of this sector.
But positioning themselves for a tidal wave of capital that will inevitably flow back in.
And I believe we’re entering that phase right now.
Capital will eventually catch up to rising commodity prices and higher demand, but as it does, it will bring on a wave of speculation.
This is the ideal time to look at stocks with advanced projects nearing maiden production and holding years of future output.
This is where speculation will arrive first.
You can join me here to discover the names of the stocks I’m selecting for my paid readership group.
Regards,
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James Cooper,
Editor, Mining: Phase One and Diggers and Drillers
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