The team at Wilson Asset Management have something to tell us.

“Reporting season has so far been stronger than expected,” they write, “with around one quarter of companies beating consensus earnings forecasts and 19% falling short.”

Often the best parts of August is not the result announcements per se, but how the market reacts. I’m talking about how the share price moves once the news hits the exchange.

Does it jump? Drop? Do nothing?

Already we’ve seen good results from JB Hi Fi and others that were met with selling. The business delivered, but it wasn’t enough to keep the market bidding on the stock.

One company that interests me in this regard is oOh! Media [ASX:OML]. This is an ‘out of home’ advertising specialist. Think billboards, bus stop ads, etc).

I’ve seen a few fund managers bandy OML around as one of their preferred ideas.

Yesterday, Murray Dawes called it “Oh Dear Media.”

The stock got clobbered 10%. It was even worse at one point.

To put that in some context, the stock had rallied 60% since February after being in a long downtrend since 2023.

You can see the recent rally, and big swing down yesterday here…

What did the company say?

They’d already announced a new CEO recently. Revenue and EBITDA are growing.

OML expects single digit revenue growth in the second half. They copped a non-cash hit from a lost contract.

Either the market didn’t like the impairment charge they announced or the guidance for the year ahead underwhelmed. I don’t know it well enough to be sure.

Cue a $100 million in lost value.

Here’s the interesting part. Big volume came in to buy the stock as it fell toward $1.50. it finished the day just under $1.60.

This is one to watch from here. I suspect that fund managers and investors might be happy to look through this short-term weakness with an eye to the longer term.

Certainly, the low it hit yesterday now becomes a handy guidepost.

If the share price goes back below that then OML won’t be worth bothering with. That would be a clear sign of weakness and selling pressure.

I don’t think that will happen. You can certainly make a buy case for OML.

They have a dominant presence in their niche and we can expect a cyclical recovery in advertising as consumer spending is bolstered from interest rate cuts and house price appreciation.

OML is not really a stock I’d go for as a self directed investor. It might be a sturdy little earner, generally speaking, but it doesn’t have enough of a ‘fat tail’ element – a big, juicy reason for the stock to soar – to get me excited to hold it.

Case in point on that is a firm like Weebit Nano [ASX:WBT]. This is a niche technology developer. It’s not comparable to OML because it doesn’t have revenue and profits like OML does.

However, it’s tech is applicable to the semiconductor industry – the most important sector in the world right now.

Imagine how electrified the share price could become if they announced any sort of deal with the Mag 7 or big overseas players in Taiwan.

WBT is a high risk proposition, but the upside could be big if they pull it off. It’s one of those low probability, high impact potential ideas we love here at Fat Tail.

Somebody else likes it too, because the stock is going vertical.

Check it out…

Notice another important difference between OML and WBT. OML can only grow ‘into’ the (and NZ) domestic markets. This puts a limit on their addressable market.

A stock like WBT can sell worldwide…if they can win the contracts. The share market will always prefer a bigger sales pipeline to a smaller one.

I’m not telling you to buy WBT. It’s prone to big rallies, then big sell offs.

But it has good potential to deliver an outsized return.

Best Wishes,

Callum Newman,
Australian Small-Cap Investigator and Small-Cap Systems

***

Murray’s Chart of the Day –
Intel Corporation

By Murray Dawes, Tuesday, 19 August 2025

Source: Tradingview

[Click to open in a new window]

Former market darling, semiconductor company Intel Corporation [NASDAQ:INTL] has fallen on tough times.

They missed the AI GPU chip boat, with Nvidia [NASDAQ:NVDA] swooping in and taking over the future of computing.

Their finances are deteriorating, and they need plenty of capital investment over the next few years to play catch up.

But Softbank [TSE:9984] just invested $2bn and the US government is even considering taking a 10% stake which could ease funding pressures.

Intel is aggressively pivoting toward becoming a leading U.S. foundry — sometimes called “the U.S. TSMC.” This diversification can open new revenue streams, especially amid soaring demand for domestic semiconductor capacity.

After a huge fall over the last few years they have dropped into a major buy zone shown above.

They are definitely not out of the woods yet, and there isn’t a valid buy signal yet.

Since they have such large competitive pressures and weak financials, I would be inclined to wait until a semi-annual buy pivot took shape before getting interested.

But as a former market leader you can’t discount the possibility that they could rise from the ashes and be presenting a great buying opportunity soon.

Companies like INTL can’t be found on the ASX. So if you are interested in trading offshore I have put together a free five video crash course which you can find here.

If you have ever considered trading offshore but decided against it because you thought it would be a hassle, the video series above will be well worth watching because it demystifies the whole process.

Regards,

Murray Dawes,
Retirement Trader, International Stock Trader and
Murray’s Trading Room