The Case for Thinking Differently in a Herd-Mentality Market

As I pointed out on Monday, following the crowd often doesn’t work in your favour as an investor.

You need to think and behave differently; otherwise, you may as well park your cash in an index-hugging ETF and ride the market, largely stress-free.

If you haven’t got the stomach or time to have a contrarian mindset, you may as well stick with a low-cost index-tracking ETF. Job done. Set and forget. Simple.

Many, including the legendary Warren Buffett, have argued that this is the best strategy for most investors.

And it’s hard to argue with that when you consider stats like these:

Source: Firetrail, Morningstar

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According to Morningstar data, 79% of Australian large-cap active funds underperformed the ASX200 over the last 15 years!

It seems layer upon layer of finance degrees don’t get you far in the real-world grind of attempting to beat the market monster… The index!

That’s where doing something different could be your edge.

For my readers, I combine geology with technical analysis. Yet, chart reading is not usually viewed favourably by large fund managers.

But it’s a strategy that’s giving us a major advantage.

Recently, I sat down and reviewed all of our past recommendations for my paid readership group at Diggers & Drillers to get some sense of how we’re tracking against the index.

To be clear, we operate differently; we don’t manage funds or charge a commission over the funds invested, as an active fund manager would.

All we do is charge a modest annual subscription.

Once they’re in, readers can buy any stock from our model portfolio, which is updated regularly based on market conditions.

In other words, you have full control over how your cash gets invested.

So, how have we fared?

Well, we launched our commodity-focused service back in November 2022. I’ll admit it’s fairly new.

But over that time, we’ve navigated deep bear markets in commodities.

And since we kicked off almost four years ago, the portfolio has delivered an annual return of 26.3%. That includes ALL our winners and losers.

For comparison, the ASX 200 has delivered an annual gain of 13.3% over the same period.

The ASX300 Metals and Mining Index [ASX: XMM] has delivered a 14.1% annual return.

Sure, we’ve entered a purple patch for the resource sector in recent months, but as I mentioned, we’ve also tracked through a prolonged bear market, too.

The period from 2023 to 2024 was brutal, marked by major fears of a Chinese real estate crash.

So, I’d admit we’re still relatively new to this game, but we’re making waves, and a key element of that is buying in markets that are often hated.

Like our focus on oil and gas

Since December 2025, we’ve been getting active on energy stocks, particularly oil and gas.

Not surprisingly, that contrarian move is starting to pay dividends.

But more important than any chest-beating over performance… Readers are getting REAL results from these recommendations, and that’s driven by thinking outside the square.

The ideas I’ve shared at Mining Memo are translating into actual market results. This isn’t academic theory; this is about overlaying real-world events with the commodity cycle.

And using charts and geology to look at stocks through a vastly different lens.

So, if you’ve followed my work for a while and you are considering upgrading to our paid service, now might be a good time to take a look.

Investors are fearful. Stocks are selling off. Meanwhile, our energy positions are flying.

But that fear is opening the door to other areas of the commodity market.

That’s why I’ve shifted several positions in our model portfolio from HOLD back to a BUY in recent days.

If you have any questions about how this service works, I’m happy to answer them before you try it out.

You can send me a message to DD@fattail.com.au, and I’ll do my best to get back to you promptly.

All the best.