You’ve seen the headlines – the US captured Venezuela’s Maduro over the weekend.

It was an audacious move by Trump, to effectively kidnap a geopolitical foe.

So when the news broke, I jumped on the screens to watch the oil price and the US Dollar Index [DXY].

The market largely shrugged – which was unsurprising.

Something like this had been brewing for a while.

The real question is: what comes next in 2026 for markets post-Maduro?

Here are the two ways I think recent events will impact 2026:

1. Trade war back on the menu, fast (hopefully not actual war)
2. Two powers, two hemispheres (and Africa’s resources very important)

Trade war back on the menu

Did anyone really think the trade war would stop?

Trump’s move on Maduro sends a clear message. The Western hemisphere is off limits.

And if you thought the US-China tensions would ease in 2026, you’re dreaming.

As my colleague Charlie Ormond pointed out recently, China’s eyeing Taiwan with the same intensity the US just demonstrated in Venezuela.

Check out these eerie photos – same playbook as Bin Laden and now Maduro.

Build a model compound to practice a mission:

Source: Joseph Wen — X.com

That’s a mock up of Taiwan’s presidential palace at the top (in China), and the actual structure of the building below (in Taiwan).

Taiwan for computer chips, Venezuela for oil.

Simple justifications, complex moving parts.

Which brings us to the real story.

Two powers, two hemispheres

US Vice President JD Vance said the Venezuela move was because Maduro tried “steal our stuff in our hemisphere”.

That line tells you everything.

The big powers have divvied up the spheres of influence.

Meaning, the US and China might have an unspoken deal.

The US gets the Western hemisphere. China gets the Eastern hemisphere.

And both powers are going to lock down resource supply chains in their respective zones.

Consider the implications.

For instance, the US has increasingly been making overtures to Western African countries.

Why? Because Africa sits between the two hemispheres, and whoever controls African resources controls the bridge between East and West.

And then look at the efforts by Trump to resolve the Congo-Rwanda conflict.

Suddenly the US is deeply interested in a regional dispute most Americans couldn’t find on a map.

Why? Because mining giant Glencore has a massive copper mine there.

Did I mention that mine has globally significant cobalt output too?

You get the point.

So here’s two major flow on effects of the recent move on Maduro:

1. Critical minerals companies with good projects should return to strength in 2026.
2. Increasingly, ASX listed African resources companies with major projects should be worth more of a look

Speaking of resource companies – read James Cooper’s latest BIG idea on how investors can benefit from the unfolding commodity supercycle.

(Something that could get supercharged as the major powers jockey for control of the commodities market)

It’s called the BIG DIG – and it’s happening right now. Read more here.