Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve
Australian shares rallied on Friday, with the benchmark ASX 200 closing 95.7 points higher at 7777.7, marking a 1.3% gain.
This positive end to the week came after upbeat data eased concerns about a potential US recession, providing relief after a tumultuous period for global markets.
All 11 sectors of the market rose, with a broad-based rally. Despite today’s gains, the ASX 200 was down 2% for the week, marking its biggest weekly loss since mid-April.
News Corp, the Murdoch family-controlled publishing and broadcast giant, saw its shares rise 7.6% to $44.54. It seemed investors’ liked the company’s plans to sell its majority-owned Australian pay television platform Foxtel.
The tech sector led the gains, surging 3.1%. Family tracking app Life360 was the standout performer, hitting an intraday record high after upgrading its full-year revenue guidance and announcing global expansion plans.
The stock soared more than 18% to close at $17.56, making it the top performer in the benchmark index.
The REA Group [ASX:REA] share price has climbed 6.7% following strong FY24 results.
The company, which owns realestate.com.au and other property-related businesses, reported strong growth across key metrics for the year ending 30 June, 2024.
Revenue surged 23% to $1.45 billion, while underlying EBITDA and NPAT rose 27% and 24%, respectively.
A good portion of this was due to residential buy listings growing 7% nationally, driving a 24% rise in residential revenue.
The full-year dividend increased 20% to $1.89 per share.
REA Group’s digital platform also averaged 127.2 million monthly visits, significantly outperforming competitors.
The company also saw growth in its commercial, developer, rent, media, and financial services segments, with strong performance across its entire portfolio.
The jump today brings its 12-month share price gain to 27.5%.
Furniture retailer Nick Scali [ASX:NCK] has seen its shares drop by 1% after it announced an 18.8% drop in annual profit to $82.1 million for the fiscal year ending June 30.
The company attributed this decline to consumers postponing large purchases due to economic uncertainty and high interest rates.
In response, Nick Scali has reduced its dividend payout.
Shareholders will receive a fully franked dividend of 33 cents per share in October, bringing the total annual dividend to 68 cents per share.
To read the full earnings report, click here.
Another great chart from our trusty Twitter economist, Shane Oliver.
Mr Oliver is the head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP [ASX:AMP]. The company had a great day on the market yesterday, gaining 12% on strong half-year earnings.
Today, his latest chart puts some context on the latest Chinese CPI numbers, which show the whole picture of the second-largest economy.
With iron ore futures recovering today, many have taken China’s latest consumption and CPI data as a sign of improvement.
However, as Shane rightly points out, China is still looking weak overall. When volatile food and energy are removed from the picture, core inflation is actually down 0.2% year over year.
China July CPI inflation +0.5%yoy, up from 0.2%yoy, stronger than expected but still weak and after stripping out volatile food and energy, core inflation actually fell to 0.4%yoy from 0.6%yoy
Producer price inflation remained at -0.8%yoy.
Lowflation remains in China pic.twitter.com/ZErFaQxrWj
— Shane Oliver (@ShaneOliverAMP) August 9, 2024
Commodities editor James Cooper has been taking a look at the opportunities around commodities after the recent jolt in markets.
In his latest piece, he covers some great ideas on where value can be found now; here’s an excerpt:
‘Monday’s events demonstrate that large institutional investors could start to unwind their massive holdings away from richly valued mega-tech firms into value plays like commodities.
A recent regulatory filing showed Warren Buffett offloaded over 50% of his Berkshire stake in the US$3.2 trillion tech giant Apple since the start of the year.
Most of those proceeds are going into Berkshire’s enormous cash hoard.
However, oil stocks are among the few items on Buffett’s buy list… His 30 percent purchase of Occidental Petroleum in June confirms where the ‘Oracle’ sees value in the market.
As an investor, you should be paying attention.’
Read on below
Iron ore futures have rebounded on the Singapore exchange today, lifting from Thursday’s sub-US$100 to US$102.25 per tonne, a 2.8% gain through the session.
Prices had previously dropped on talks of steel output curbs in China’s main steel manufacturing hub, Tangshan and concerns about global demand.
With the overnight jobless numbers in the US coming below expectations, fears of a recession have receded for now.
On the ASX today, major miners gained ground, with BHP up +1.59%, Fortescue gaining +1.88%, while Rio Tinto is up by +2.9%.
News of Chinese consumer prices rising faster than expected, a hopeful sign of a domestic recovery in China, also helped today.
Australian shares rallied 1.3% by midday, with the tech sector leading the charge as the market tracked Wall Street’s gains following upbeat US data that eased concerns about a potential recession.
The ASX 200 Index rose 106.3 points to 7,788.3, recovering from Thursday’s 0.2% dip. The big news that shifted the needle overnight was US weekly jobless claims data decreasing more than anticipated, helping to ease concerns about an imminent economic recession.
All sectors saw increases, with tech surging 3.8%. Family tracking app Life360 emerged as the top performer, soaring nearly 18% after upgrading its full-year revenue guidance and announcing global expansion plans.
News Corp, the Murdoch family-controlled publishing and broadcast giant, also ranked among the top gainers following the announcement of plans to sell its majority-owned Australian pay television platform Foxtel.
On the downside, insurance group QBE was the second-largest laggard, dropping 3.6% after falling short of investors’ expectations for net profit and guidance per share.
The four major banks and mining giants showed positive movement, with ANZ up 1.7% and Rio Tinto advancing 2.3%, while BHP and FMG gained around 1%.
Neuren Pharmaceuticals [ASX:NEU] shares are down -6.5% to $16.02 following their trading halt, underperforming the wider ASX 200’s rallying day.
The decline is likely due to its weaker-than-expected second-quarter update, which came out prior to the halt, overshadowing its promising trial results.
The company released top-line results from its Phase 2 clinical trial of NNZ-2591 in children with Angelman syndrome (AS).
The oral liquid dose was safe and well-tolerated, showing statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements in important aspects of AS.
Every child aged 3-12 years showed improvement, with enhancements in communication, behaviour, cognition, and motor abilities.
CEO Jon Pilcher noted that these results strengthen confidence the drugs potential, saying:
‘These results provide additional confirmation that NNZ-2591 as an oral liquid dose may address the core symptoms of diverse neurodevelopmental disorders, independent of the origin of the underlying genetics. We are very grateful to the people in the Angelman syndrome community and at the trial sites in Australia who enabled the successful completion of the trial.’
Despite today’s fall, Neuren shares are still up 31% in the past 12 months after a meteoric rise last December.
Insurance giant QBE Insurance [ASX:QBE] has seen a significant drop in its share price this morning, reaching its lowest point since late January, despite reporting a doubling of after-tax profits for the first half of the year and an increase in dividends.
For QBE’s market presentation this morning, click here.
The market’s reaction was primarily driven by the company’s slight earnings miss and a downward revision of its topline guidance for fiscal 2024.
QBE shares are one of the worst performers on the ASX 200, declining by 3.3% to $15.79 per share, highlighting the challenges QBE faces in maintaining investor confidence despite its improved financial results.
Mining services giant Perenti [ASX:PRN] has landed a three-year contract with Barrick Gold to support operations at the Hemlo gold mine in Ontario, Canada.
The agreement, valued at over $200 million, encompasses a range of underground services, including mine development, production, and support.
A key feature of the contract is that Barrick Gold will retain ownership of the existing underground equipment fleet and will be responsible for acquiring any additional machinery required for the mine’s operations.
Perenti highlighted that this arrangement ‘significantly reduces the capital intensity of the project for Barminco,’ its North American subsidiary.
Shares are up by 2.3% this morning trading at 98.3 cents per share.
Life360 [ASX:360], the family tracking app, has announced an upgrade to its full-year revenue guidance following a significant increase in its user base and plans to expand its advertising business globally.
The Silicon Valley-based company now projects revenue for CY2024 year to range between US$370–378 million, up from the previous estimate of US$365–370 million.
The company anticipates an EBITDA loss between $US8 million and $US13 million, with an adjusted EBITDA of $US36 million to $US41 million.
The company added 132,000 paying members, representing a 25% year-over-year increase, bringing the total to 2 million paying users. The average revenue per paying account also rose by nearly 6%
Life360 Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Chris Hulls said:
‘Our positive results in Q2’24 continued across our strategic growth priorities. First, we grew our free members base by 4.3 million MAUs and reached 70.6 million overall. Next, we increased net Paying Circles by 132 thousand in Q2’24 compared to the 96 thousand increase in Q1’24, a new quarterly record for global net additions.’
‘We believe that we are very early on in penetrating our global market opportunity, and that we have significant headroom to grow as we expand to new regions, and launch new safety, connection, and location features that make everyday family life better throughout all life stages.’
In early trading today, Life360 has seen its shares jump by +16% to $17.32 per share. Shares are up by 124% in the past 12 months as the company continues to surge across its dual listings.
Good morning. Charlie here.
The Australian share market is looking like a banner day after a huge rally on Wall St, which has sent traders scrambling to pick up any bargains left from recent pullbacks.
The ASX 200 opened up +0.60% to 7,728.2, with 170 companies of the major benchmark gaining.
Volatility is certainly still in markets at the moment, this time moving positively as the S&P 500 posted its best day since 2022, gaining +2.30%.
The move was sparked as jobless claims data fell more than expected, giving traders some confidence that a soft landing could be achievable again.
In commodities, iron ore fell below US$100 per tonne overnight, which is a key psychological level. The shift came as market talks around China’s main steelmaking hub Tangshan will impose stringent restrictions on steel output soured sentiment.
On the ASX, earnings season is in full swing with Newscorp, Life360, QBE Insurance, Nick Scali, and REA Group reporting today.
Name | Value | % Chg | |
---|---|---|---|
Major Indices | |||
S&P 500 | 5,319 | +2.30% | |
Dow Jones | 39,446 | +1.76% | |
NASDAQ Comp | 16,660 | +2.87% | |
Russell 2000 | 2,084 | +2.42% | |
Country Indices | |||
UK | 8,166 | -0.27% | |
Germany | 17,680 | +0.37% | |
Euro | 4,668 | +0.01% | |
Japan | 34,831 | -0.74% | |
Hong Kong | 16,891 | +0.08% |
Name | Value | % Chg | |
---|---|---|---|
Commodities (USD) | |||
Gold | 2,423 | +1.63% | |
Silver | 27.51 | +3.24% | |
Iron Ore | 99.85 | -2.10% | |
Copper | 3.9738 | -0.22% | |
WTI Oil | 76.14 | +0.87% | |
Currency | |||
AUD/USD | 65.90¢ | +1.01% | |
Cryptocurrency | |||
Bitcoin (USD) | 61,157 | +11.34% | |
Ethereum (USD) | 2,673 | +13.50% |
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Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.
Go beyond conventional investing strategies with unique ideas and actionable opportunities. Our expert editors deliver conviction-led insights to guide your financial journey.
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