Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve
The ASX 200 has a last-minute rally to close flat at -0.07% 7,173.3.
The recovery came in the last ten minutes of trading after a low day on the back of another sharp fall in oil prices.
Four out of the eleven sectors closed in the green, with the top performer, Utilities up +0.84%.
The worst performing sector on the ASX 200 was Discretionary (-0.53%) and Health Care (-0.46%) after Energy stocks recovered in the 11th hour as Santos reversed its dip to close the day up +0.74%.
Another noticeable movement today was Perpetual, which closed the day up +6.69% after rejecting a buyout bid by Washington H. Soul Pattinson.
The biggest faller on the ASX 200 was Paladin Energy (-6.0%), which fell alongside its other Uranium player Boss Energy (-7.95%).
Fat Tail Small Cap Investigator Callum Newman has been watching Australia’s housing prices for some time, and he thinks we’re in for a lift.
In his latest article, he outlines why:
I made the case earlier in the year for property investors to start chasing the strong rents in the housing market.
Now see this from the Australian Financial Review…
‘Expectations of strong capital growth and robust rental increases fuelled by record migration are enticing a growing pool of property investors like Marc Woolfson back into the market, despite higher interest rates.’
Click below to read on why it could be a good time to start thinking about property again.
Sarah Hunter has been named as the chief economist and assistant governor (economic) at the Reserve Bank of Australia.
She takes the place of former assistant governor Luci Ellis, who left the RBA to take a position as chief economist at Westpac in October.
Dr Hunter will start with the RBA Sarah on 29 January 2024.
RBA governor Michele Bullock said today:
‘I am delighted that Sarah will be joining us. She will bring a unique and diverse perspective to the Bank and the leadership team.’
Australia’s trade surplus widened in October to $7.1 billion. That was helped by exports of metal ores and minerals and a drop in imports.
The surplus was below the forecasted $7.5 billion today, according to the ABS. Exports were up 0.4%, while imports fell by 1.9%.
The main driver in declining imports was an 11% drop in capital goods imports, tracking with lowered domestic demand as investment falls.
Australia has run a trade surplus for nearly six years, largely thanks to iron ore and fossil fuel exports. Recession fears are still hanging over the data as weakening demand from China has some concerns about longer-term economic health.
Abhijit Surya, Australia and New Zealand economist at Capital Economics said this could drag growth:
‘Notwithstanding the slight expansion in the goods trade surplus in October, net trade could subtract from growth this quarter,’ he said.
Oil stocks are the worst hit on the benchmark, following a steep drop in the price overnight.
That’s brought the ASX 200 down -0.28% to 7,158.5 around midday, with five of the eleven sectors up.
The worst performer today is far and away, Energy, down -1.84% with big losses seen in Woodside -1.94% and Santos -2.43%
While the best performer so far on the ASX 200 was Utilities +0.23% with the biggest large-cap gains seen by AGL Energy, up 2.58%.
In individual performances Perpetual is the standout today, up 7.74% after rejecting a $3 billion bid, saying it undervalues the company.
Perpetual [ASX:PPT] shares jumped by 9% this morning after rejecting a $3 billion dollar bid from Washington H. Soul Pattinson.
The Sydney-based global fund manager said the offer ‘materially undervalues’ the company.
The offer came after Perpetual announced yesterday that it was initiating a strategic shift.
The board hinted that it was exploring a demerger of its asset management business from its wealth and corporate trust businesses.
For more details on the changes over at Perpetual, check out my article from yesterday here.
Listed asset management firm GQG Partners [ASX:GQG] has seen its shares rise this morning after the company announced inflows into its funds.
As of 30 November, the firm saw AU$13.7 billion of inflows into its strategies.
Its international equity strategies saw the biggest gains, up US$3.5 million.
Funds under management for GQG’s global equity and emerging markets equity rose US$1.8 billion and US$2.8 billion.
Total funds under management rose from $US103.9 billion to $US112.6 during November.
Boss Energy [ASX:BOE] announced today that is has completed its $205 million raise through a single issue of shares. Boss also plans to raise an additional $10 million via a share purchase plan, with an offer of $3.95 per share. Terms of the deal will be released on 15 December.
The proceeds of the raise will be used to fund the purchase of Texas-based mine Alta Mesa from the Canadian-listed Encore Energy.
Boss Energy’s Managing Director,Duncan Craib said:
‘It is a very exciting time for Boss Energy as it moves to become a multi-mine In-Situ Recovery (ISR) uranium producer by 1H 2024. We are extremely pleased with the outcome of the capital raising and we are grateful for the support of our existing and new shareholders. The proceeds will be used to drive Boss Energy’s multi-pronged growth strategy, with significant exploration spending and work towards expanding production capacity at Honeymoon.’
Shares in Boss are currently down -4.21% this morning.
The head of Kerry Stokes’s Seven West Media [ASX:SWM], James Warburton, has announced he is stepping down at the end of the financial year.
He will be replaced by the company’s CFO, Jeff Howard. In a statement today, Mr Stokes said:
‘Jeff has an immense depth of experience and exposure across the broad media industry and the right balance of skills to deal with a dynamic and evolving media landscape. Having worked as SWM’s Chief Financial Officer since January 2020, he is well positioned to continue the momentum created by James. His commercial knowledge, passion and commitment will ensure a strong performance focus at this critical time of change and innovation for the industry.’
The search for a new CFO has also begun at the company.
Good morning all, Charlie here
The ASX 200 opened down -0.16% to 7,167.0 this morning as Wall Street finished down and Oil prices came back into focus.
A deep drop in oil was due to concerns of oversupply as the latest US job numbers weakened and Moody’s downgraded China’s growth prospects.
On the Aussie market, the ASX is likely to slide as the market digested the anemic GDP numbers yesterday.
With a population growth of 0.7% between July and September, the quarterly GDP figure of 0.2% was especially weak. In better news, the Aussie dollar has been gaining back some ground, and some analysts are pointing towards US 67 cents.
Wall Street: Dow -0.19%, Nasdaq -0.58%, S&P 500 -0.39%
Overseas: FTSE +0.34%, STOXX +0.68%, Nikkei +2.04%, SSE -0.11%
The Aussie dollar fell -0.07% to US 65.51 cents.
US 10-year bond yield -6bps to 4.10%. Australian 10-year bond yields -19bps to 4.22%.
Gold is up +0.34% to US$2,025.46. Silver fell -1.16% to US$23.91
Bitcoin fell -1.14% to US$43,643, Ethereum fell -2.71% to US$2,226
Oil Brent fell -3.89% to US$74.20, while WTI Crude fell -4.33% to US$69.19.
Iron ore is up +0.24% to US$130.77 a tonne. Singapore futures are up +2.17% to US$131.85.
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Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.
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