Russia, Ukraine, and the truth
Truth is the first casualty of war.
And in the clamorous world of social media, truth is even harder to find.
In times of war, media narratives can shrink to simplistic generalities. When tragedy is unfolding at an industrial scale, nuance is often sidelined.
Noise is pervasive and genuine insight is slim.
But it is precisely when noise is at a fever pitch that cool analysis is most needed.
True understanding doesn’t come from rehashing ‘received ideas’ skimmed from headlines.
As the saying goes, everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.
That’s why I think you will benefit greatly from watching Greg Canavan’s interview with Jim Rickards, the veteran investment strategist who predicted in 2015 the disaster now unfolding in Ukraine.
Jim is a lawyer, economist, and investment banker with 35 years of experience working in capital markets on Wall Street.
He is probably most well known for being the principal negotiator of the rescue of Long-Term Capital Management by the US Federal Reserve in 1998.
Why Russia invaded Ukraine
Jim thinks what is happening in Ukraine is a tragedy and what Putin is doing is unforgivable.
Having said that, Jim considers himself first and foremost an analyst.
His job is to think in a clinical way about where geopolitical events are heading and what that means to his readers and viewers.
There is no doubt in Jim’s mind about the tragic nature of what’s going on. We are daily witnessing the human suffering in Ukraine.
Having said that, Jim believes it is all too easy to paint Putin as evil incarnate, emerging in a vacuum.
When you do that, you miss a lot of context and nuance.
Putin started the war; he is responsible. But Jim thinks we shouldn’t ignore other contributing factors.
As Jim Rickards tells Greg in the interview below:
‘President Zelensky is as responsible for the war as Putin. This war really could have been avoided. The fact it wasn’t avoided represents as much a failure on the part of the United States and the Ukrainian government as it does on Putin for firing the first shot.’
To find out why Jim thinks this war could have been avoided, listen to the interview below.
Greg and Jim cover a lot of ground in the chat, including:
- The 2014 background of the current conflict in Ukraine
- The geography and history behind the war
- Why Jim thinks Russia will ‘win’ and what that means for the region, and
- The unintended consequences of economic sanctions on Russia.
If you want to access more of Jim’s insights and analysis, you can check out Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence Australia.
It is a monthly communique that connects private investors from around the world…as part of Jim Rickards’ global network.
As you’ll see from the above discussion with Greg, Jim Rickards is no ordinary financial newsletter writer…and Strategic Intelligence Australia is no ordinary financial newsletter.
For Money Morning Australia