• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer

Fat Tail Daily

Investment Ideas From the Edge of the Bell Curve

  • Menu
    • Commodities
      • Resources and Mining
      • Copper
      • Gold
      • Iron Ore
      • Lithium
      • Silver
      • Graphite
      • Rare Earths
    • Technology
      • AI
      • Bitcoin
      • Cryptocurrency
      • Energy
      • Financial Technology
      • Bio Technology
    • Market Analysis
      • Latest ASX News
      • Dividend Shares
      • ETFs
      • Stocks and Bonds
    • Macro
      • Australian Economy
      • Central Banks
      • World Markets
    • Small Caps
    • More
      • Investment Guides
      • Premium Research
      • Editors
      • About
      • Contact Us
  • Latest
  • Fat Tail Series
  • About Us
Housing Market

House Prices Could Soar over 2024-25!

Like 0

By Catherine Cashmore, Friday, 06 October 2023

In today's Land Cycle Investor, I have a chat with Leith van Onselen, co-founder and Chief Economist at MacroBusiness.com.au about the new vacancy tax in Victoria, record rates of immigration, and much more. Tune in to the interview below…

A new report produced by research firm KPMG forecasts house prices to surge over the next two tears, with a rise nationally of 4.9% over the next nine months and then another 9.4% in the year to June 2025.

KPMG’s property report on Australia’s capital cities speculates that apartment prices across the country will see an average rise of 3.1% by next June, followed by a 6% increase in the next 12 months.

And as we’ve been forecasting over at Cycles, Trends & Forecasts over the last few years, the report highlights that Perth, the mining capital of Australia, will capture the greatest gains — with a rise of 8.4% over the remainder of the financial year.

But then suggests that Hobart will overtake other cities in FY25 and rocket northwards by 14.2%.

They also say that Hobart units will outperform all other capital cities with rises of 8.7% and 10%, respectively, over the next two years, followed by Sydney, Melbourne, and Adelaide.

KPMG detail a number of drivers behind the increase, specifically limited supply and high demand coming from record rates of immigration.

‘Despite high interest rates, constrained supply will likely dominate the factors influencing property prices in the short term and result in continued price gains in most markets during FY24. House and unit prices will then accelerate further in the next financial year as dwelling supply continues to be limited, due to scarcity of available land, falling levels of approvals and slower or more costly construction activity…’

Dr Brendan Rynne, KPMG Chief Economist

I’m not in disagreement of the overall forecast.

If you follow the cycle, the last two years (2024–26) are typically the most bullish as we transit into the peak.

Whether or not we’ll see apartment prices rise as much as spruiked is another matter.

I certainly wouldn’t be advising anyone to head into central areas of the capital cities to purchase a one- or two-bedroom apartment in the next few years.

If you listen to the news, it seems there’s plenty of pressure on rental markets, with stories of desperate families sleeping in caravan parks and, in some cases, cars.

However, when you peer through the mist and take a glance at the statistics, the vacancy rates in the unit/apartment market are not quite as bad as demonstrated!

Vacancy rates in central Sydney, for example, are currently 4.6% (SQM Research). And in Melbourne city, they’re sitting at more than 5%. That’s not representative of a crisis in the unit market and it’s not going to push up prices (or rents) in this sector.

No, the way for speculative landlords to take advantage of a situation that’s creating a housing affordability bloodbath for incoming migrants is to buy land!

Specifically land you can subdivide, in a landlocked middle-ring suburb of one of the major capitals, ideally, with a rental house on top.

Now, I’ve written a lot about this type of investment previously. It’s the formula that can give you not only great capital growth, but also great passive income. That’s if you are savvy enough to take advantage of the rental crisis, in areas close to essential amenities, and create accommodation that can be rented out to multiple tenants, or via schemes such as the NDIS.

‘This is the future of investment’ as one real estate mogul who manages rooming houses commented to me recently.

It’s not without a fair deal of work, maintenance, and its share of headaches, but I tend to agree, it’s a smart strategy for capturing both capital growth, and positive rental incomes!

I discuss this and more with today’s podcast guest Leith van Onselen, co-founder and Chief Economist at MacroBusiness.com.au, as well as Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super.

Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury, and Goldman Sachs.

Our discussion covers a wide range of topics that you will not find debated in the mainstream or anywhere else in such detail, for that matter.

We debate:

  • Why the new vacancy tax in Victoria will do zip to increase the supply of affordable housing, or lower land values.
  • How the World Economic Forum’s vision of a world where we shall ‘own nothing, and be happy’ is playing out in our capital cities.
  • How record rates of immigration are creating the conditions of a modern-day story of Henry George’s Progress and Poverty in Australia.
  • How the makings of an anticipated land boom over the next two years could create multi-millionaires and rental paupers. We explain exactly where you might want to consider the opportunities to take advantage of the conditions ahead.

All this and much more.

Tune in below!

Sincerely,

Catherine Cashmore Signature

Catherine Cashmore,
Editor, Land Cycle Investor

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

Comments

Subscribe
Notify of
guest
guest
0 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Catherine Cashmore

Catherine’s Premium Subscriptions

Publication logo
Fat Tail Investment Research

Latest Articles

  • Tick, tock: there’s a boom brewing in one sector…
    By Callum Newman

    All the old hands say you’re supposed to buy resources when they’re down in the dumps. That’s the theory. It’s the timing that’s the bitch. Here’s some help with that…

  • Buy oil when there’s peace in the streets
    By Nick Hubble

    While stocks have recovered from the tariff tantrum, the oil price remains in the doldrums. And that means investors can still join the relief rally at a discount.

  • Vicuña: The Greatest Mineral Discovery of Our Lifetime
    By James Cooper

    James Cooper returns to his geologist roots, revealing the industry’s most critical exploration discovery made in decades…The Vicuña District in Argentina.

Primary Sidebar

Latest Articles

  • Tick, tock: there’s a boom brewing in one sector…
  • Buy oil when there’s peace in the streets
  • Vicuña: The Greatest Mineral Discovery of Our Lifetime
  • “Green gold”…primed for a comeback!
  • Don’t Get Swept Up By the Herd: Bulls & Bears in an Age of Social Media

Footer

Fat Tail Daily Logo
YouTube
Facebook
x (formally twitter)
LinkedIn

About

Investment ideas from the edge of the bell curve.

Go beyond conventional investing strategies with unique ideas and actionable opportunities. Our expert editors deliver conviction-led insights to guide your financial journey.

Quick Links

Subscribe

About

FAQ

Terms and Conditions

Financial Services Guide

Privacy Policy

Get in Touch

Contact Us

Email: support@fattail.com.au

Phone: 1300 667 481

All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.

Fat Tail Logo

Fat Tail Daily is brought to you by the team at Fat Tail Investment Research

Copyright © 2025 Fat Tail Daily | ACN: 117 765 009 / ABN: 33 117 765 009 / ASFL: 323 988