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Commodities

Don’t Become a Victim of Volatility: Use it to Your Advantage

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By James Cooper, Friday, 11 April 2025

At times like this, you have to take a breath and turn off the news! As I told my paid readership group yesterday, this is not the time to become a victim of volatility. Instead, use it to use it to your advantage.

The disparity between best-case versus worst-case outcomes in the ‘tariff panic’ is colossal.

At its worst, tariffs can potentially split global trade between the world’s two largest economies, China and the US.

No one knows how to price that, but it has been a case of selling and asking questions later.

On Monday, a single tweet was enough to ignite a chain reaction in the market that sent markets into a multi-trillion dollar joy ride. A brief surge, followed by a collapse after it was found to be ‘fake news:’

Fat Tail Investment Research

Source: X

Then, a nearly 10% surge in the S&P500 on Wednesday delivered a feeling of euphoria.

But overnight, markets were down again. The S&P500 fell 3.5% on Thursday, which would be a huge move under normal conditions. But in today’s market, it’s a blip.

It begs the question…

What comes next?

At times like this, you have to take a breath, walk the dog, and, most importantly, turn off the news!

As I told my paid readership group yesterday, this is not the time to become a victim of volatility.

Instead, use it to use it to your advantage.

With the colossal market bounce yesterday, we offloaded one of our weaker positions in the portfolio.

That gives us more capital to pounce on the next downdraft in global markets. Add a quality name or two that’s been too expensive under normal market conditions.

And that’s another advantage you can capture from this market volatility… Markets are telling you which sectors and stocks you should focus on.

It comes down to relative strength: stronger stocks fare better in a weak market. And tend to lead (or rise more) when the recovery starts.

Now’s the time to be looking for those NEXT market leaders.

Another thing I’m reminding my paid readership group

As junior resource investors, we’ve been here plenty of times before. We’re a battle-hardened group!

It’s just that the rest of the market is finally experiencing what major volatility looks like.

You might recall the bloodbath in mid-2024:

Iron ore prices were catering. That was thanks to weak GDP growth from China.

Across the board, resource stocks moved into freefall. Extending an already prolonged bear market in commodity markets.

Over that time, I pleaded with my paid readership group not to sell.

At the height of the panic in mid-2024, I issued a piece titled:

‘IMPORTANT UPDATE: Resource Market Sell-off and What You Need to Understand’

We could have panicked. We could have agreed with the narrative that iron ore would collapse to $60 per tonne and that resource stocks would crater into a mass liquidation event.

But we held firm.

At our more active commodity trading service, we took advantage of last year’s commodity bloodbath, jumping into a TSX-listed copper junior, Aldebaran Resources, close to the market bottom.

A couple of months later, its share price doubled. Not all of our timings have worked out that well, of course.

Those are the types of opportunities I’m looking for right now.

Meanwhile, at our entry-level service, Diggers & Drillers, we’re focused on long-term growth.

That’s why I always return to one critically important chart whenever markets reach a phase of nerve-racking volatility.

As you can see, against financials, resources remain incredibly cheap:

Fat Tail Investment Research

Source: Goehring and Rozencwajg

In this market, you’ll sleep better at night holding stocks with an element of undervaluation.

And in terms of commodities, this level of undervaluation hasn’t been seen in over a century!

That has to be viewed as an opportunity, no matter what the broader market throws at us.

One Final Point…

Some market commentators suggest we remain on the verge of a 2008-like stock market crash.

And yesterday’s bullish move was just a dead-cat bounce.

But as you might recall, 2008 was a credit crisis and systemic failure in the financial system that spread across global banking and real estate.

In 2008, the pillars of the global economy crumbled.

Today, we have a ‘headline panic’ driven entirely by the Trump Administration.

Sure, there are risks to global growth if the tariff war between China and the US continues to ramp up.

But there’s still so much that can happen from here…

In late 2024, China announced that it would take whatever measures necessary to counter the impact of US tariffs.

I suspect we could be on the verge of seeing what that looks like very soon.

As I told my paid readership group on Monday, major stimulus from China remains a very real possibility. There’s also overwhelming pressure on central banks to cut interest rates.

The market is full of opportunities. But as I detailed, you need to focus on the strongest names.

Until next time.

Regards,

James Cooper Signature

James Cooper,
Editor, Mining: Phase One and Diggers and Drillers

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

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James Cooper

James Cooper has been a working geologist in mines across Australia, Canada, and Africa since the early 2000s. He’s led the operations of tiny explorers through to huge producer outfits. He’s seen booms and busts firsthand and he also understands the cyclical nature of individual commodities. For example, James was right there when Barrick Gold launched an enormous $7.5 billion takeover bid for Equinox. That was the peak of the last cycle.

With his background as a geo and finance professional, he brings a unique insight and experience to Fat Tail Investment Research. He writes the broader resource-focused investing letter Diggers and Drillers and the ultra-speculative explorer-focused trading service Mining: Phase One.

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All advice is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal circumstances. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you’ve invested. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in our reports are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. Any actual or potential gains in these reports may not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees.

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